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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 10th, 2025

Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Even for a Thursday short slate, this board is remarkably light on bankable options. I wouldn’t get too cute with these arms. Instead focus on offense Thursday and then turn back toward streaming arms for the weekend!

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Big Kid Adds (Week 14)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Will Benson (7): For anyone using weekly projections, Benson jumped off the page as an add. He came in as the week’s 77th-ranked batter. It might not seem like he’s worth adding, but in a 12-team league with 168 batters rostered, Benson is worth 0.2 points in the standings compared to a replacement outfielder. If a similar move is made every week throughout a season, it would theoretically be worth 5.2 spots in the standings.

In leagues with a decent waiver wire, being able to churn one to three spots can be a huge advantage.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (6): Kim returned to the Rays and immediately injured himself. Once regularly playing, he could be a difference maker with potential for Steals and Home Runs.

So far, he seems to be trading off power for more contact with some career-low power StatCast numbers in his AAA rehab. Solid gamble.

Colson Montgomery (6): I didn’t believe in Montgomery because of his 34% K% in AAA. If an AAA pitcher dominates a batter, I don’t want him in the majors. While a .500 BABIP in 17 PA has his overall numbers up (.385/.500/.538), his 15.6% SwStr% is 2.5% points higher than his AAA rate.

With all the hitters who were destroying AAA and then struggled in the majors, why would I want one who is getting eaten up by AAA pitching?

Max Muncy (West Sacramento) (5): Experiencing a hot streak (.316/.350/.789 in July) but has struggled (75 wRC+, 32% K%) for most of the season. He has shown more power with 7 HR in 179 PA. I backed off of him and several others A’s because Miguel Andujar (.296/.328/.402) is about to come off the IL. Zack Gelof’s return contributes to the roster crunch.

Francisco Alvarez (5): Sent to AAA, and someone thought it was time to add him for a potential future callup. Wasn’t horrible with a 92 wRC+ (.236/.319/.333). He wasn’t much of a fantasy contributor with 3 HR and 0 SB to go with the .236 AVG in 138 PA.

There may be more to the demotion than just his performance. By keeping Alvarez down until Saturday, the Mets gain another year of control over him.

Unless Alvarez is recalled to the major leagues by Saturday, he will have spent enough time in the minors this season to delay his free agency by a full year. The New York Mets will gain an additional year of team control over the catcher, who wouldn’t become a free agent until after the 2029 season. Alvarez would be a free agent entering his age-28 season, still relatively young to be on the open market.

“I can’t worry about that right now — it’s a lot for me to worry about right now,” Alvarez told The Athletic when approached about the free-agency issue Tuesday before a game in Syracuse. “I didn’t know that, but I feel like I need to just focus on getting better and that’s it.”

Alvarez’s demotion was not a surprise, and it wasn’t primarily motivated by the service-time issue. Though trying to incorporate a swing change, the third-year catcher has just six extra-base hits in 35 major-league games. His slugging percentage is 100 points lower than it was as a rookie in 2023.

Starters

Joey Cantillo (9): On Monday, Cantillo made his first major league start of the season, going 3 IP on 68 pitches. The results were similar to his results to date, a good number of strikeouts (5) and walks (3). He has some Will Warren/Tylor Megill vibes. He has good enough stuff to get the strikeouts, but the walks can come back to bite him.

On top of his WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.87 ERA, he’s not going deep into games. That might be the Guardians’ plan to limit his innings like the White Sox did with Garrett Crochet last season. Cantillo has never surpassed 119 IP in a single season and only threw 78 IP last season. So far this season, he’s at 47 IP.

Pablo López (6): On the 60-day IL, and the earliest he can come off the IL is early August, after going on the IL on June 5th. This is a pure stash player and could be worth losing the extra roster spot if Lopez returns to pitch like he was before the injury (2.82 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.1 K/9).

Sean Burke (5): I wrote the following about Burke in this week’s Waiver Wire article.

Since I wrote the analysis, he faced the Blue Jays and got lit up for 6 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, and 3 HR in 5 IP. He’s likely just a streamer against weaker offenses.

Ryan Gusto (5): Gusto’s (4.61 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.44 WHIP) demand is the hope that he replaces Colton Gordon (4.76 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.41 WHIP) in the Astros rotation. It seems like Gusto’s been overall better, but he padded his ERA with seven relief appearances (4.92 ERA as SP, 3.29 ERA as RP).

All of Gusto’s struggles have come against lefties. Against righties, he has a 2.49 FIP. Now, against lefties, it’s a 5.86 FIP. Broken down against lefties, it’s a:

4.9 BB/9
2.3 HR/9
.354 BABIP.

If he starts Sunday, he’ll face Texas, which is in the middle of the pack with right-handed batters comprising 57% of their plate appearances.

Logan Allen로건 (5): Allen is scheduled to face the White Sox, so he’s tempting for most fantasy teams to use. His 4.07 ERA is his best trait, with projections and ERA estimators pointing to a mid-4.00 ERA talent. Additionally, his 1.43 WHIP has done as much damage as a 5.10 ERA.

He’s shown a little improvement over his last six starts with his walk rate down from 4.7 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9.

I get the same feeling as I did with Burke, where I might roster him, but I don’t feel good about.

Relievers

Ronny Henriquez (7): Miami’s closer with some amazing stats (2.72 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9).

Adrian Morejon (5): The lefty is being used in high-leverage spots with some great stats (1.79 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.82 WHIP). My only issue with Morejon is that, being a lefty, he’s likely behind righty Jason Adam for the closer’s role if Robert Suarez falters.

Most Added Players In NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added In Max Bid Min Bid
Joey Cantillo 9 35 3
Ronny Henriquez 7 131 44
Will Benson 7 22 9
Ha-Seong Kim 6 74 13
Pablo Lopez 6 24 4
Colson Montgomery 6 19 11
Sean Burke 5 23 5
Ryan Gusto 5 18 1
Logan Allen 5 13 2
Max Muncy 5 13 7
Francisco Alvarez 5 7 2
Adrian Morejon 5 7 2
Shane McClanahan 4 27 2
Jack Perkins 4 23 2
Adrian Houser 4 12 2
Andrew Vaughn 4 12 3
Jordan Hicks 4 12 3
Colby Thomas 4 10 3
Jordan Wicks 4 8 2
Kyle Higashioka 4 3 1
Zebby Matthews 4 2 1

Position Player Playing Time Changes: July 9, 2025

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Below are the latest significant rest-of-season projected playing time changes for hitters, headlined by the MLB debut of Colson Montgomery and the quick return of Corbin Carroll. So quick, in fact, that I didn’t even have to change the article photo from last week!

Remaining PT% Changes, 7/1 to 7/8
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
John Rave KCR RF, LF, CF 17% 51% 34% Path to playing time is clear with Waters in AAA
Colson Montgomery CHW SS 52% 76% 24% Welcome to MLB!
Corbin Carroll ARI RF, CF 69% 92% 23% Quicker-than-expected return from chip fracture
Yanquiel Fernández COL RF, DH 26% 47% 21% Welcome to MLB!
Zack Gelof ATH 2B 62% 80% 18% Finally back from the IL (hamate, ribs)
Joey Loperfido TOR RF, LF, DH, CF 1% 18% 17% Called up, should start against most/all righties
Austin Nola COL C 8% 24% 16% New backup C over Fulford
Paul DeJong WSN 3B, SS 26% 41% 15% Back from IL, starting against LHP
Andrew Vaughn MIL 1B, DH 6% 20% 14% Recalled to replace Hoskins
Luis Matos SFG LF, RF, CF 7% 21% 14% Back from AAA, playing often
Casey Schmitt SFG 2B, 3B, 1B, SS 42% 56% 14% Back from IL to be starting 2B
Miguel Rojas LAD 3B, 2B, SS, 1B 19% 33% 14% Will get a lot of 3B time with Muncy out
Ezequiel Duran TEX 3B, SS, 2B, LF, 1B, RF 22% 35% 13% Playing fairly often with Jung down
Matt Chapman SFG 3B 84% 96% 12% Quickly back from IL
Jake Burger TEX 1B, 3B, DH 67% 79% 12% Back from IL, maybe some 3B time too?
Jesse Winker NYM DH, LF 32% 43% 11% Nearing IL return
Anthony Seigler MIL 3B, 2B, C 15% 26% 11% Brought up as bench depth
Masataka Yoshida BOS DH, LF 40% 51% 11% Nearing IL return
Noelvi Marte CIN 3B 60% 70% 10% Back from IL, getting most 3B time
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 TBR SS 72% 82% 10% Back from the IL, could get some maintenance days but is starting SS
Ty France MIN 1B, DH 82% 72% -10% Losing PT vsR to Clemens
Andrés Chaparro WSN DH,1B 17% 7% -10% Sent to AAA
Justin Foscue TEX 1B,DH 11% 1% -10% Sent to AAA
Pavin Smith ARI DH, 1B, LF, RF 59% 48% -11% Oblique strain
Jake McCarthy ARI RF, LF, CF 43% 32% -11% Carroll’s return cuts into playing time
Gary Sánchez BAL C, DH 41% 29% -12% Knee sprain
Luis Urías ATH 2B, 3B, SS 42% 30% -12% Hamstring strain
Lane Thomas CLE CF, RF 70% 58% -12% Plantar fasciitis
Ryan Noda CHW 1B, DH 46% 34% -12% Quad strain
Curtis Mead TBR 3B, 2B, 1B, DH 26% 13% -13% Optioned down for Kim
Rhys Hoskins MIL 1B, DH 82% 68% -14% Sprained thumb
Kerry Carpenter DET RF, LF, DH 69% 55% -14% Strained hammy
Jonatan Clase TOR LF, CF, RF 36% 22% -14% Sent to AAA
Christian Moore LAA 2B 78% 64% -14% Sprained thumb
Daniel Johnson SFG CF, LF, RF 28% 12% -16% Sent to AAA
Gabriel Arias CLE SS, 2B, 3B, 1B 65% 49% -16% Sprained ankle
Yordan Alvarez HOU DH, LF 64% 46% -18% Continued setbacks with hand
Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 2B, SS 54% 35% -19% Sent to AAA
Josh Jung TEX 3B 85% 64% -21% Optioned to AAA
Braxton Fulford COL C 32% 11% -21% Replaced by Nola as backup C
Max Muncy LAD 3B, 1B 78% 40% -38% Knee bone bruise
Drew Waters KCR CF, RF, LF 63% 19% -44% Sent to AAA

Roto Riteup: July 9, 2025

Still one of my favorite plays in sports:


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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 9th, 2025

Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – July 8th, 2025

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

JUMP TO 2-START CHART

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Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 7, 2025

11:26
Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of the hour! Get your questions in! In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

12:00
Hazmat Corntail: 14t dynasty (standard 5, QS), please rank these SP for RoS and beyond: Ober, Cecconi, Priester, Bello, Soroka

12:00
Justin Mason: Cecconi, Ober, Bello, Priester, Soroka

12:00
Derek: Listening to your discussion with Jason yesterday about Royce Lewis, 12 team keeper league with tons of pitching but weak in hitting – I offered this: Michael Harris and Kumar Rocker for Royce Lewis and TJ Friedl.  The other owner has an old team so I’m trying to sell him some youth?  Thoughts?

12:01
Justin Mason: I love this deal. You get the best player for this year in Friedl and the highest upside player for now and the future in Lewis. Great job

12:02
Tim: ROS and beyond: a) Otto Lopez,  b) Ha-Seong Kim, c) they’re the same guy d) they’re the same guy, but Otto also has 2B eligibility for ‘26 already

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Roto Riteup: July 7, 2025

As a proud member of the Never Bunt crowd, I am conflicted:

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 7th, 2025

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

JUMP TO 2-START CHART

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FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 14)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »