2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the first base position for 2021. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
See my other ranks here: C 1B 2B SS 3B OF SP RP
Read the rest of this entry »
74-88 (4th in Division; 22nd in MLB)
SP Wins: 41 (18th)
RP Wins: 33 (16th)
Saves: 37 (20th)
1+ Save: 8 (Scott Barlow 16, Greg Holland 8, Josh Staumont 5, Jake Brentz, Kyle Zimmer, Wade Davis 2, Richard Lovelady, Jesse Hahn 1)
100+ Ks: 4 (Mike Minor 149, Brady Singer 131, Brad Keller 120, Kris Bubic 114)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Nicky Lopez .300, Whit Merrifield .277, Andrew Benintendi .276, Salvador Perez .273)
65+ Runs: 4 (Merrifield 97, Perez 88, Lopez 78, Carlos Santana 66)
65+ RBI: 4 (Perez 121 [led MLB], Merrifield 74, Benintendi 73, Santana 69)
10+ HRs: 7 (Perez 48 [led MLB], Santana 19, Benintendi 17, Hunter Dozier 16, Jorge Soler 13, Michael A. Taylor 12, Merrifield 10)
5+ SBs: 7 (Merrifield 40 [led AL], Lopez 22, Adalberto Mondesi 15, Taylor 14, Benintendi, Jarrod Dyson 8, Dozier 5)
BEST BUY: Whit Merrifield
Merrifield’s already fragile power fell off the cliff with a .117 ISO (lowest since 2016) and just 10 HR despite playing all 162 games, but he swiped an AL-best 40 bases and scored 97 runs to maintain fantasy value. He maintained dual eligibility at 2B and OF, finishing 5th and 11th at those positions on the Auction Calculator, respectively. There may be a little hot potato effect that drops his draft price a bit as some may be afraid to hang on one year too long with Merrifield. But he still had an 87th percentile Sprint Speed and Whiff% while remaining a premium fielder (92nd percentile Outs Above Average at 2B).
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73-89 (5th in Division; 24th in MLB)
SP Wins: 39 (22nd)
RP Wins: 34 (15th)
Saves: 42 (11th)
1+ Save: 7 (Alex Colomé 17, Hansel Robles 10, Taylor Rogers 9, Tyler Duffey 3, Jorge Alcala, Randy Dobnak, Ralph Garza Jr. 1)
100+ Ks: 2 (José Berríos 126 [total: 204], Kenta Maeda 113)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Nelson Cruz .294 in 346 PA [total: .265 in 584 PA], Luis Arraez .294, Jorge Polanco .269)
65+ Runs: 3 (Polanco 97, Josh Donaldson 73, Miguel Sanó 68)
65+ RBI: 3 (Polanco 98, Sano 75, Donaldson 72)
10+ HRs: 8 (Polanco 33, Sano 30, Donaldson 26, Cruz, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton 19, Ryan Jeffers 14, Mitch Garver 13)
5+ SBs: 4 (Polanco 11, Kepler, Nick Gordon 10, Buxton 9)
BEST BUY: Josh Donaldson
Donaldson’s age (36 next year) and robust injury history will keep his price more than reasonable for an easy 25/.240 with his 2019 (.259/37) still a legitimate upside if he can spike another healthy season.
71-91 (4th in Division; 24th in MLB)
SP Wins: 41 (19th)
RP Wins: 30 (23rd)
Saves: 40 (16th)
1+ Save: 12 (Craig Kimbrel 23, Rowan Wick 5, Codi Heuer, Adam Morgan 2, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Rex Brothers, Ryan Tepera, Keegan Thompson, Michael Rucker, Manuel Rodriguez, Kyle Ryan 1)
100+ Ks: 3 (Kyle Hendricks 131, Alzolay 128, Zach Davies 114)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Rafael Ortega .291, Kris Bryant .267)
65+ Runs: 0
65+ RBI: 2 (Ian Happ 66, Javier Báez 65)
10+ HRs: 9 (Patrick Wisdom 28, Happ 25, Baez 22, Willson Contreras 21, Bryant 18, Anthony Rizzo 14, Frank Schwindel 13, Joc Pederson, Ortega 11)
5+ SBs: 7 (Baez 13, Ortega 12, Happ 9, Matt Duffy 8, Contreras, Jason Heyward, Nico Hoerner 5)
BEST BUY: Willson Contreras
Quietly still finished as the 7th-best catcher and his bankability at such a shallow position alone earns him this slot. Well, that and a lack of other candidates. The 30-year-old backstop might not even make it through the winter as a Cub as he will be a free agent after the 2022 season and could net a substantial return.
Even though the World Series has just started, sleeper season has arrived for we who laugh haughtily at the idea of an offseason. So, like any good tout, I’m busy preparing for the winter by searching for the players that you’ll wish you would’ve drafted this time next year.
But first, the asterisk. Let’s just skip any philosophical debates about what does or does not constitute a sleeper, as its definition is very user-dependent and can range from very broad (any player, regardless of round/price that you think will return a substantial ROI) to very narrow (the out-of-nowhere player that returns Mullins-esque value).
Let’s just say that I keep my definition pretty loose, looking for players that I think will return big value relative to their price but also ones who I’m confident will, for whatever reason (boring vet, bad team, etc), be easier to acquire. Low Q-rating guys, if you will. Read the rest of this entry »
67-95 (4th in Division; 25th in MLB)
SP Wins: 32 (27th)
RP Wins: 35 (14th)
Saves: 33 (25th)
1+ Save: 3 (Dylan Floro, Yimi García 15, Anthony Bender 3)
100+ Ks: 3 (Sandy Alcantara 201, Trevor Rogers 157, Pablo López 115)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Miguel Rojas .265, Jesús Aguilar .261)
65+ Runs: 2 (Jazz Chisholm Jr. 70, Rojas 66)
65+ RBI: 2 (Aguilar 93, Adam Duvall 68 [total: 113, led NL])
10+ HRs: 4 (Aguilar, Duvall 22, Chisholm 18, Jesús Sánchez 14)
5+ SBs: 8 (Chisholm 23, Starling Marte 22 [total: 47, led MLB], Rojas 13, Magneuris Sierra 11, Jorge Alfaro, Jon Berti 8, Duvall, Brian Anderson 5)
BEST BUY: Pablo López
I love the trio of potential aces they have in Miami, but I think Lopez is the best bang for your buck. Alcantara is awesome and the market knows it. Rogers finished nicely and it went a bit under the radar, but the market isn’t sleeping on him. I would likely pay for either at market price, but Lopez will likely dip a bit behind those two.
The following analysis is beyond nerdy.
I’ll try to keep it simple as possible, but no guarantees. This past week, I examined the results of several hitter projection systems. In the comments of the first article, Mays Copeland and Skin Blues brought up a near 15-year-old thread on the InsideTheBook blog between Tom Tango and Nate Silver. Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s play a game. We’ll look at one single at-bat and go through each pitch pausing in-between to assess what we think will happen next. The goal of this game is to guess the final outcome; pitch type, pitch location, and result. Let’s get started with our first edition of…Guess!…That!…Pitch!!
Free Agents
• Seiya Suzuki of Japan’s Hiroshima Carp might get posted this winter.
The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball could make top outfielder Seiya Suzuki available to Major League teams via the posting system this winter, according to a report from Yahoo Japan. The Carp have begun taking some of the necessary steps, per the report, conducting a recent MRI for updated medical records and beginning to put together the requisite paperwork.
…
Hernandez quotes a big league scout calling Suzuki a “five-tool guy” and “the best player in Japan the last few years.” Sung Min Kim 김민, who’s written for both FanGraphs and The Athletic, tweets that several MLB Pacific Rim scouts have considered Suzuki the top NPB or KBO player with a realistic chance of being posted in recent years.
Suzuki is an interesting add for leagues where every player is rostered. I looked around for some projections or MLE’s and no one has any yet. Once they become available, I’ll post them here. Read the rest of this entry »
