Four more starters as I work my way through the list. Here are the ones I’ve already done.

Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):

• Alzolay, Quantrill, J. Suarez, Thompson, R. Suarez, Thompson, C Hernandez
• Javier, Lamet, Rasmussen, Steele, M. Perez, Cortes, Espino, Stripling, Long, Houck

Deep League Starting Pitchers

• Kaprielian, Taillon, Carrasco, and Ober
• Bauer, Plesac, Kikuchi, Gonsolin, and Greinke

Steven Matz (301 ADP)

I probably spent way too much time digging into Matz and eventually came to the conclusion that he’s a fine starter. His profile begins and ends with his pitch mix.

His sinker and change got a good number of swings and misses compared to similar pitches. Also, it was a good idea for him to move away from the slider and throw the curve as a third pitch after coming off the IL. The problem there was that he threw his sinker more and the strikeouts dropped.

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11/30/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Max Scherzer to NYM (7:24)
• Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Jon Gray, Kole Calhoun to TEX (20:30)
• Javier Báez to DET (46:58)
• Kevin Gausman to TOR (54:14)
• Robbie Ray, Adam Frazier to SEA (1:03:30)

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General

• Charlie Morton talks about how rehabbing players won’t have access to team training facilities if a lockout happens.

Yeah, I don’t think many people have given much thought to how a lockout could affect things like injury rehab. Folks think mostly in terms of starting spring training and the season on time. But yeah, for guys rehabbing, it could be a pretty significant thing for them.

Yeah, because their life as a professional doesn’t stop. I mean, you go from working out at the team facility — I mean, Acuña and Soroka, those guys are working out at the stadium and rehabbing with our PTs — and then you’re on your own. Which I’m sure is probably pretty unsettling, especially if you have, like, franchise-caliber players involved.

It’s tough to know if this situation should move back any player return timelines, but it’s something to consider going forward. Read the rest of this entry »

90-72 (2nd in Division; 10th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 54 (9th)

RP Wins: 36 (13th)

Saves: 50 (4th)

1+ Save: 7 (Alex Reyes 29, Giovanny Gallegos 14, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Luis García 2, Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현, Ryan Helsley, Justin Miller 1)

100+ Ks: 1 (Adam Wainwright 174)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Paul Goldschmidt .294, Tyler O’Neill .286, Edmundo Sosa .271, Harrison Bader .267, Dylan Carlson .266)

65+ Runs: 5 (Goldschmidt 102, Tommy Edman 91, O’Neill 89, Nolan Arenado 81, Carlson 79)

65+ RBI: 5 (Arenado 105, Goldschmidt 99, O’Neill 80, Yadier Molina 66, Carlson 65)

10+ HRs: 8 (Arenado, O’Neill 34, Goldschmidt 31, Paul DeJong 19, Carlson 18, Bader 16, Molina, Edman 11)

5+ SBs: 4 (Edman 30, O’Neill 15, Goldschmidt 12, Bader 9)

BEST BUY: Tommy Edman

Edman’s primary value comes from his speed as he was 30-for-35 on the bases last year. He also chipped in 91 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, and a .262 AVG, but he is drafted for the SBs and positional flexibility (he’ll be 2B/OF to start 2022). Only 15 guys are projected for 20+ SBs next year according to Steamer and from that group, only Myles Straw (142) and Akil Baddoo (168) are available cheaper than Edman (84). With his contact and speed, Edman is a nice BABIP away from chasing down a .300 AVG, too.

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For this exercise, we will be looking at starting pitchers and their NFBC ADP as of 11/29/21. It’s always interesting to see how the crowd thinks, who they seem to value, and how fantasy managers are shaping their drafts. For instance, how many pitchers are going in the first round? How many fantasy managers are grabbing two starting pitchers in the first three rounds? A lot to unpack and a lot of different aspects to analyze. We will go by round and after each round, we will discuss briefly what we are seeing! To note: this is based on Draft Champions which is a 15 team format with about 14 completed drafts.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/ Read the rest of this entry »

90-72 (2nd in Division; 11th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 45 (13th)

RP Wins: 45 (4th)

Saves: 51 (3rd)

1+ Save: 8 (Drew Steckenrider 14, Paul Sewald 11, Kendall Graveman 10, Rafael Montero 7, Keynan Middleton 4, Yohan Ramirez, Diego Castillo 2, Erik Swanson 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Yusei Kikuchi 163, Logan Gilbert 128, Chris Flexen 플렉센 125, Marco Gonzales 108, Sewald 104)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Ty France .291, J.P. Crawford .273)

65+ Runs: 4 (Mitch Haniger 110, Crawford 89, France 85, Kyle Seager 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Seager 101, Haniger 100, France 73)

10+ HRs: 7 (Haniger 39, Seager 35, France 18, Luis Torrens 15, Jarred Kelenic 14, Dylan Moore 12, Tom Murphy 11)

5+ SBs: 5 (Moore 21, Jake Fraley 10, Kelenic, Jake Bauers 6, Sam Haggerty 5)

BEST BUY: Mitch Haniger

Injuries cost Haniger 99 games in 2019 and all of 2020. Once healthy, he picked up where he left off as a premium power source. His power metrics are strong and he has decent plate skills so if he can remain healthy, he’s a 30-90 lock. A couple of his biggest injuries have been fluky so I don’t think he has exceptionally higher injury risk with 157 games played in two of his last three seasons (63 in ’19, 0 in ’20). He goes just outside the Top 100, a fair price for such a capable power bat.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the third base position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

I recently took over an Ottoneu team for the upcoming 2022 season. If you are unfamiliar with Ottoneu, it’s keeper league where you get to make trades from mid-November to January 31st. Any players left on your roster after that you keep, using the auction draft to fill in the missing pieces. Taking over someone else’s team kind of feels like moving into an empty office. There are a few cobwebs in the corner, the previous owner left a really cool pen in the desk drawer and there’s a very stinky sandwich in the staff refrigerator that you somehow feel like is your new responsibility.

The fun part is taking stock of what you have and trying to decide what you want to keep (cool pen) and what you want to cut (stinky sandwich). In this series of posts, I’ll write about the decisions I have to make, how I go about analyzing the data before making my decision, and then what decision I plan to make. You too could be doing this kind of thing, all you have to do is take over someone’s abandoned team and search through the desk drawers when you move in.

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