There is more to pitching in fantasy than just strikeouts but ratios and wins can be fickle little elves from season to season, mischievously relying on more things beyond a pitcher’s control. The whiffs, however, tend to be more predictable year-to-year. Or, at least, it’s easier to make more direct connections between changing results and changing stuff.

Strikeout rates also start to stabilize quickly, at around 60 batters faced. Note that they only start to stabilize at that point, so while the sample may start being meaningful, it becomes much more so with more batters faced. But the comparatively lower threshold for strikeouts makes it more possible to compare them with 2020’s mini-season.

Here are the starting pitchers in 2021 (min 75 IP) that saw at least a two-point increase in their strikeout rate compared to 2020.

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92-70 (3rd in Division; 7th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 44 (14th)

RP Wins: 48 (3rd)

Saves: 47 (6th)

1+ Save: 7 (Aroldis Chapman 30, Chad Green 6, Jonathan Loáisiga 5, Wandy Peralta 3, Lucas Luetge, Albert Abreu, Zack Britton 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Gerrit Cole 243, Jordan Montgomery 162, Jameson Taillon 140, Nestor Cortes 103; 3 super-close ones: Green 99, Domingo Germán 98, Chapman 97)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Aaron Judge .287, Giancarlo Stanton .273, DJ LeMahieu .268, Gio Urshela .267)

65+ Runs: 2 (Judge 89, LeMahieu 84)

65+ RBI: 2 (Judge 98, Stanton 97)

10+ HRs: 10 (Judge 39, Stanton 35, Gary Sánchez 23, Rougned Odor 15, Urshela 14, Joey Gallo 13 [total: 38], Luke Voit 11, LeMahieu, Brett Gardner, Kyle Higashioka 10)

5+ SBs: 4 (Tyler Wade 17, Gleyber Torres 14, Judge 6, Greg Allen 5)

BEST BUY: Giancarlo Stanton

It felt a little odd to land on Stanton here, but he basically replicated Judge’s season and he is about 60 picks cheaper. He also regained OF eligibility after being UT-only in most formats last season. Obviously he comes with higher health risk than an average hitter, but he is still one of the strongest bets for 30 HR in a given season.

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12/8/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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IN FOCUS: Justin’s OF Rankings Pt. 2

• Brandon Nimmo 62nd (1:46)
• Lane Thomas 66th (7:00)
• Andrew Benintendi 71st (12:25)
• Austin Hays 72nd (20:06)

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Free agents

• Masahiro Tanaka will not be coming back to the MLB to play.

Right-hander Masahiro Tanaka’s two-year contract with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles contained an opt-out clause this winter, but the team announced that Tanaka will return to the club in 2022 (hat tip to Yahoo Japan). Tanaka’s comeback season in NPB went well, as he posted a 3.01 ERA with a 20.19% strikeout rate and a 4.65% walk rate over 155 2/3 innings with the Eagles.

American League

Astros

• Lance McCullers Jr. is still about a month away from throwing and may not be ready by the start of Spring Training.

The right-hander said that he is “about a month” away from beginning to throw, which represents a longer rest timeline than the six-to-eight weeks McCullers projected in late October.

Still, it would seem like McCullers is still tentatively on pace to proceed relatively normally during Spring Training, and then be ready for Opening Day

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With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

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92-70 (3rd in Division; 8th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 50 (11th)

RP Wins: 42 (8th)

Saves: 49 (5th)

1+ Save: 10 (Matt Barnes 24, Adam Ottavino 11, Hansel Robles 4, Garrett Richards 3, Garrett Whitlock 2, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez, Matt Andriese 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Nathan Eovaldi 195, Eduardo Rodriguez 185, Pivetta 175, Richards 115)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Xander Bogaerts .295, Alex Verdugo .289, J.D. Martinez .286, Rafael Devers .279)

65+ Runs: 6 (Devers 101, Martinez 92, Bogaerts 90, Hunter Renfroe 89, Verdugo 88, Enrique Hernández 84)

65+ RBI: 5 (Devers 113, Martinez 99, Renfroe 96, Bogaerts 79, Bobby Dalbec 78, Verdugo was close at 63)

10+ HRs: 7 (Devers 38, Renfroe 31, Martinez 28, Dalbec 25, Bogaerts 23, Hernandez 20, Verdugo 13)

5+ SBs: 4 (Christian Vázquez 8, Verdugo 6, Devers, Bogaerts 5)

BEST BUY: J.D. Martinez

Martinez re-acquired OF eligibility, got back on track v. righties, and was on the cusp of the fabled 30-100-100 season (missed by 2 HR, 1 RBI, 8 R). He did lead baseball with 42 doubles and while most leagues don’t directly count doubles, it’s part of his power output and obviously makes driving in runs easier. Martinez was another case of overrating the shortened 2020 and this isn’t just hindsight, either, as I wrote him up last December saying as much. He is definitely worth his pick-91 ADP and even his high end (min pick of 72) still has plenty of profit potential.

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12/3/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Marcus Stroman to CHC (3:11)
  • Carlos Correa/Trevor Story markets (6:00)
• Chris Taylor to LAD (13:22)
• Raisel Iglesias back to LAA (21:13)
• Hunter Renfroe traded to MIL (22:52)
• James Paxton & Rich Hill to BOS (33:00)

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The focus of this article isn’t to list all the moves. Instead, I’m going to focus on the moves where I think fantasy values changed the most. Also, I dived into a few muddled situations.

Rangers signed Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Kole Calhoun

There has been quite a bit of discussion on how bad the Rangers lineup was last season. They ranked 24th in hitter WAR (only team WAR projections are available), but are projected for the 12th highest total as of now.

I’m not shying away from this offense that rates to be better than the Red Sox and Braves. Since the offense will be respectable, there is no worry for Seager or Semien seeing a major drop-off (possibly some with home run regression but EVERY OTHER ANALYST has covered this angle). Read the rest of this entry »

91-71 (4th in Division; 9th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 61 (4th)

RP Wins: 30 (24th)

Saves: 34 (24th)

1+ Save: 9 (Jordan Romano 23, Rafael Dolis 3, Julian Merryweather 2, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, Tyler Chatwood, Anthony Castro, Tommy Milone, A.J. Cole 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Robbie Ray 248, Steven Matz 144, Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 143, Alek Manoah 127)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 6 (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .311, Bo Bichette .298, Teoscar Hernández .296, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .276, Marcus Semien .265, George Springer .264 in 342 PA)

65+ Runs: 5 (Guerrero Jr. 123, Bichette 121, Semien 115, Hernández 92, Gurriel Jr. 62)

65+ RBI: 6 (Hernández 116, Guerrero Jr. 111, Bichette, Semien 102, Gurriel Jr. 84, Randal Grichuk 81)

10+ HRs: 8 (Guerrero Jr. 48, Semien 45, Hernández 32, Bichette 29, Grichuk, Springer 22, Gurriel Jr. 21, Jansen 11)

5+ SBs: 4 (Bichette 25, Semien 15, Hernández 12, Santiago Espinal 6)

BEST BUY: Bo Bichette

I had some questions about Bichette’s speed or just one question, but it was: does he really have it? He was 8-for-13 as a major leaguer but had managed 30 per 600 PA in the minors. I was concerned about getting burned by minor league SB totals again as I had with George Springer and Joc Pederson. Springer had a 40 SB/600 PA rate in the minors and Pederson was at 33 SB/600 PA. They have a combined 71 SBs in 6907 PA. But Bichette took off, going 25-for-26 in a dream season and now he’s a firm 1st-rounder as a do-everything middle infield stud.

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Arguing price is something that has been going down since currency was made out of copper coins and some of the coins had holes in the middle. In today’s world, price negotiators say things like, “$3.15 a gallon for gas?! You’re out of your mind!” or “I’m not paying over $3 for a watermelon, I’m just not!” Whether you’re the type to wait for a sale on underwear or the type to just go and pay what you pay because, well, you need it, all of us can relate to the idea of arguing a price. In my last piece on Kyle Freeland, I made the case that he’s worth $4. I was immediately argued with (politely, that is) about that price, and you know what? I may be overpaying. But, that’s the beauty of price! It’s here, it’s there, it’s really up for debate. So, let’s do it, let’s try this: Garrett Hampson is not worth $8 in FanGraphs points Ottoneu leagues. Here’s why:

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