Ottoneu Keep/Cut Decisions: Garrett Hampson

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December 2, 2021

Arguing price is something that has been going down since currency was made out of copper coins and some of the coins had holes in the middle. In today’s world, price negotiators say things like, “$3.15 a gallon for gas?! You’re out of your mind!” or “I’m not paying over $3 for a watermelon, I’m just not!” Whether you’re the type to wait for a sale on underwear or the type to just go and pay what you pay because, well, you need it, all of us can relate to the idea of arguing a price. In my last piece on Kyle Freeland, I made the case that he’s worth $4. I was immediately argued with (politely, that is) about that price, and you know what? I may be overpaying. But, that’s the beauty of price! It’s here, it’s there, it’s really up for debate. So, let’s do it, let’s try this: Garrett Hampson is not worth $8 in FanGraphs points Ottoneu leagues. Here’s why:

Garrett Hampson, $8

Ottoneu FanGraphs Points Leagues: Average salary $5.12, Median salary $4.00

Roster%: 69.79  —  7-Day change: down .59%. —  30-Day change: down 3.52%

Other $8 MI (average): Paul DeJong STL, Ryan McMahon COL, Gio Urshela NYY, Nick Solak TEX, Jonathan India CIN, Willy Adames MIL, Ty France SEA, Nick Madrigal CHC

Garrett Hampson 2021 vs 2022 Projections
Season Team Level G PA HR AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
2021 COL MLB 147 494 11 .234 .289 .380 .288 65 0.5
2022 Steamer PROJ 110 442 10 .245 .305 .383 .298 72 -0.1
Total – – – MLB 329 1053 24 .240 .298 .383 .293 67 0.6

In 2021 Hampson had 494 plate appearances, but his teammate, Ryan McMahon, led the Rockies in PAs with 596 and made 52 starts at second base. Trevor Story accumulated 595 PAs. This has been arguably the largest point of discontent with Hampson; playing time. If Story signs away from Colorado, Hampson’s playing time should go up significantly, but is he carving out a platoon role for himself? In 2021, Hampson’s plate appearances split between 159 versus lefties and 335 versus righties, and for good reason. Here are Hampson’s 2021 L/R splits:

Garrett Hampson 2021 L/R Splits
Handedness BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wOBA wRC+
vs L 8.20% 16.40% 0.5 0.271 0.335 0.479 0.815 0.208 0.301 24 0.348 104
vs R 6.00% 27.50% 0.22 0.217 0.267 0.333 0.601 0.117 0.286 25 0.260 47

When compared to MLB averages (batting against left and right), the vs L Hampson is above average at every stat in the table above except for ISO. However, the vs R Hampson is below average at every stat. That’s a pretty definitive split, but it’s not the most drastic in the league. Here’s a list of the largest differentials between wRC+ vs L and vs R among hitters with at least 100 PAs against each in 2021:

Top 10 Largest L/R Splits as a Right-Handed Hitter
Name wRC+ vs L wRC+ vs R Diff
Mike Zunino 243 77 166
Charlie Culberson 152 10 142
Albert Pujols 146 36 110
Austin Slater 141 38 103
Carson Kelly 164 66 98
Teoscar Hernández 203 109 94
Andrew McCutchen 168 76 92
Chad Pinder 144 53 91
Andrew Vaughn 156 68 88
Trea Turner 201 121 80
Among hitters with at least 100 PA vs L and vs R
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Let’s all just take a moment to gape at what Mike Zunino did to lefties this season. Surely, that’s an outlier. As freakish as Zunino’s splits were in 2021, Hampson ranks down at 21st among these players. That’s good enough to expect Hampson to hit against lefties, but what about as an all-around hitter? Back in 2020 PitcherList’s Josiah Deboer wrote about Hampson’s trouble with the bat, but most notably, where Hampson was seeing the majority of pitches. An updated chart from Savant shows us part of the reason Hampson has so much trouble with righties:
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He has real trouble down and away. Get a lefty in there and Hampson might see that part of the plate covered a little less. A true telling of a players’ hit tool comes from the chart that you’ve all seen before, his statcast profile:
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* Baseball Savant
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There’s a lot of blue there for $8. The plate discipline stands out in the sense that Hampson is not chasing and he’s not swinging and missing often. However, he could potentially benefit from being a little more aggressive, particularly in the zone. In 2021, Hampson had a called strike rate of 19.5%, above the league average of 16.4%. Pitchers must have picked up on that because he also saw pitches in the zone 45.8% of the time, higher than the major league average of 42.1%.

The sprint speed can’t be argued with, and Coors field makes good things happen for hitters. There is some reason to believe Hampson could improve as a fantasy option if he becomes a little more aggressive, but he will also need to hit the ball harder. In FanGraphs points leagues, extra-base hits are rewarded and Hampson’s xSLG is too blue for $8. Look at his 2021 spray chart and you’ll see that he managed to use his speed to produce 11 in-field hits. But that’s not even half of what the league leader, David Fletcher, created at 28. Fletcher doesn’t hit the ball hard either, but I use this as a way to point out that Hampson isn’t doing anything that stands out when it comes to producing singles with speed. On the other hand, he did hit six triples and that scores big points in Ottoneu, but you’ll notice that number probably should have been down to five.

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* Baseball Savant
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Lastly, Hampson’s 99th percentile speed only has him projected for 16 stolen bases in 2022 according to Steamer. For $8, there should be players available who can get close to 10 stolen bases, hit for more power, and get more playing time.  As we approach the lock-out deadline of 2021, Trevor Story has not yet been signed and that has big implications on Hampson’s playing time in 2022 as he projects to take over the shortstop position if Story goes elsewhere. Is it worth $8 to wait and see? I lean towards no.
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Verdict: Cut. 





 

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CC AFCmember
2 years ago

I agree! I used to want to gobble up all the Rockies since power matters so much in ottoneu, but I’ve long since learned that, indeed, Rockies hitters do still need a minimal level of skill to be worthwhile (long sigh remembering David Dahl).

I also think the 1/31 keeper deadline is a factor here. I could see the Rockies making some signings that could crowd him out of full time opportunities after that deadline since we don’t know when major league signings will start again. And if he’s not worth $8 with a close to full time role, I’m definitely not paying that with any uncertainty about his role.

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