Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:
Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson
Sasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers
Nelson, Brown, Lowder, & Megill
Montas, Holmes, Sugano, Miller, & Montgomery Read the rest of this entry »
One of my favorite traditions every winter is to peruse our Steamer600 projections and dream about some potential breakthrough seasons. This puts everyone on equal footing playing time-wise since it is the most difficult factor to consistently project as Rob Manfred simply refuses to turn off injuries in the global settings of the game!
Here are some of my favorite potential breakouts using these numbers:
CATCHER (they do make an exception at C where it’s 450 PA since very few Cs log 600)
Gabriel Moreno | ARI, 194 ADP | .283 AVG, 10 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB
I am still on the Moreno Train! He couldn’t really build on his 2023 breakout because while he did add a few points to his wRC+ total, he only played 97 games and saw his .284 AVG drop 18 points. Thumb and adductor strains in June and August, respectively, cost him about a month of time and contributed to his modest overall output. While it didn’t yield much in the way of his counting stats, it is worth noting that Moreno had a sharp improvement in plate skills, doubling his BB/K from 0.8, tops among catchers with at least 350 PA. A fully healthy season could see the 25-year-old backstop eclipse 400 PA for the first time while this projection likes him for a power surge, too. We did catch a glimpse of power production during their World Series run in 2023 as Moreno clubbed 4 HRs in 70 PA after hitting 7 in 380 during the regular season. The batting average is the key though, so even if he stays more in the 5-7 HR range, there is upside to chase with Moreno. In the last five full seasons (so 2019 added in to replace 2020) there have been just eight instances of a catcher hitting .280+ in at least 400 PA with William Contreras being the only guy to do it twice. I like Moreno to join that club in 2025.
Rangers
• Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Corey Seager are healthy.
McFarland relays that third baseman Josh Jung, outfielder Evan Carter, and shortstop Corey Seager are all healthy and ready for Spring Training next month after undergoing surgeries in the fall. Seager underwent sports hernia surgery back in September but resumed baseball activities in November, while Jung and Carter are on a slightly more delayed timeline after undergoing wrist and back surgery respectively in October.
The Catcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Erik Halterman
Strategy Section
ATC Undervalued Players
Mailbag
Injury Update
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Astros
• J.P. France hopes to return in May.
After the surgery, he was in an arm sling for a month and did treatment in Houston until he returned home to Tennessee at the end of August. France began tossing a baseball in early December and will report to big league camp in a month to continue his rehab with the team in Florida, where he’ll remain until May.
“I could keep cruising like I am right now and get out of West Palm in April, or I could have a setback or something and stay there until June,” he said. “You never know. I feel like the way it’s going right now, hopefully I’m looking more about the 12-month mark, so that will be me [back] in July. Hopefully that’s the case. There’s a fine line because it’s a shoulder surgery and you’re not trying to rush it back, either.”
Blue Jays
• Alek Manoah plans on an August return.
The righty’s timetable for return to the mound has been unclear since then, but recently Manoah himself provided an update to Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star as part of an interview for the Star’s “Deep Left Field” baseball podcast. During the interview, Manoah identified August as his target for a return to action.
Guardians
• When he returns, David Fry will only DH next season.
At the end of last season, Fry underwent elbow surgery and will not be able to play in the field for all of 2025. At some point, he’ll be able to at least DH. This was the case for Cleveland for the second half of ’24 because of Fry’s injury, so it’s nothing the team isn’t already used to.
Rangers
That one, a tendon release surgery by Dr. Steven Shin in Los Angeles, made a significant difference.
“I’m full-go,” Jung said. “I don’t know if Dr. Shin waved some magic fairy dust over my wrist or what, but so far we’ve been able to feel like a normal human. Hopefully we can continue that.”
Red Sox
• Masataka Yoshida didn’t play in the outfield last season because an arm injury prevented him from throwing.
The Red Sox swore up and down for six months that Yoshida’s lack of OF time was because they had better options, even after the injury was revealed on the last day of the season.
Today: “Yeah, our outfield defense was great last year, but in a perfect world, if he was healthy,…
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) January 11, 2025
• Marcelo Mayer will play some third base and shortstop in AAA while David Hamilton will play some outfield.
The Red Sox are looking to increase the defensive versatility of players in their system, including one of their top prospects. Cora said on Saturday that Marcelo Mayer will see time in Triple-A Worcester at second and third base, in addition to shortstop. The 22-year-old played one game at third base each of the past two years but has yet to play a professional game at second, though he has done pregame infield work at each position.
Mayer hit .307 with an .850 OPS in 77 games last season in Double A before a late-season promotion to Triple A. He did not appear in a game in Triple A as his season was cut short with a lower back strain. After a full, healthy offseason, Mayer is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.
Meanwhile, speedy infielder David Hamilton will see time in the outfield this season. Hamilton played eight games in center in 2022 and 2023.
“That’ll be fun just to see him run around,” Cora said. “We’re trying to get him as versatile as possible. He’s excited about it. We talked to him two weeks ago. He’s done it before in center field, and people are excited about that. I want to see that.”
Giants
• Justin Verlander is touching 92 mph.
For the first time in his career, Verlander kept throwing all offseason, which he hopes will help him avoid more setbacks with his shoulder in the future. He said he’s already up to 92 mph and feels he’s “miles ahead of where I was last year at this time.”
I’m sure Verlander will throw harder but it’ll be interesting to see how much velocity he gains. Hitting 92 mph means he’s sitting 90 mph. Last season he sat at 93.5 mph and posted only a 7.4 K/9. He’s got some work to do.
Marlins
• Xavier Edwards has been dealing with shoulder pain since 2022.
This was nothing new to Edwards. Since sustaining a shoulder impingement in 2022 during his time in the Rays’ organization, getting his arm back in shape had been a work in progress. It didn’t matter how much arm care he did or anti-inflammatories he took. Edwards resigned himself to playing through it, though it clearly affected his velocity and accuracy.
“There were days I didn’t want to throw at all,” Edwards said. “It was uncomfortable to throw. You just have to deal with it and do whatever you can to be available and get through it, but at the same time, now in the offseason I have down time, so this is my chance to get it right.”
• During his downtime, Dane Myers “tweaked” his swing to hit for more power and make more contact.
The main reason Myers returned to the D.R. was to make up at-bats after missing two months because of a self-inflicted left ankle fracture. During his rehab stint, he tweaked his swing by standing a bit more upright in his starting point. Since Myers had a tendency to crash into the ball, it cut off room for his pull side. By making this adjustment, he should be able to stay in that position throughout his swing.
…
“It’s kind of focusing on what you can do and hoping for the best outcome,” Myers said. “I know I can hit for some power, and I know I can be on base a little bit more. And I think if I cut my strikeouts down, I think I can make that happen. The little mechanical change actually puts me in a better spot to make more consistent contact I feel like, so that kind of plays into cutting down the swing and miss, not missing good pitches that I get to hit early in at-bats.”
Mets
• With Pete Alonso going elsewhere, Mark Vientos will shift over to first base, and Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty, and Ronny Mauricio are options at third base.
The current plan is to shift Mark Vientos to first base and have Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio vie for third base.
Rockies
• Brenton Doyle will lead off next season.
Doyle, 26, batted just .120 in a smattering of games — 14, including 13 starts — at the top. But his tool set and his success lower in the order suggests he has a shot at emulating Blackmon, who was one of the game’s premier No. 1 hitters during his prime. The Rockies will solidify their plans during Spring Training, but club officials indicated during the Winter Meetings that the team wants to look at Doyle in the top spot.
And Doyle, who already has won two National League Gold Glove Awards for his defense in center, would like to make the leadoff spot his.
“I’m not a stranger to being a leadoff hitter — I hit leadoff quite a bit in my career coming up in the Minor Leagues,” Doyle said. “Being a leadoff hitter, to me, says they have confidence in you to get the most at-bats in a game, and try to create some momentum early in the game, as well.
Last season, Doyle only led off in 13 games. The biggest adjustment fantasy managers need to make is to up his Runs scored and drop the RBI projection.
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.
Many indicators are pointing to Adolis García’s power declining. If so, his fantasy value may be careening down a cliff. Read the rest of this entry »
Well, I got my yearly, “Talk to the Boss First Before Publishing” article out of the way halfway through January. I started looking into hitter playing time and previously they were just one column in one of the tables. This year, we dove into why our projections came in near the bottom with some computer-generated projections beating them. Besides the results, there is a ton of other information so if someone blows off the specific results, at least read the summary.
Last season I collected about 20 projections right before the final last weekend when most fantasy managers draft. This is when projections needed to be their best. Here is the tweet I sent to mark when I pulled them.
Mark time now…
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 21, 2024
In all, I collected 20 different projections. Eight were not freely available to the public. They will be just be labeled Paywall X. Here are the ones people could freely get from the internet.
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.
The Auction Strategy (Part 2) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Marc Winokur
Auction Strategy Section
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