Note: I needed to write an article and dig through early season information. Here are some notes by team … sort of.
With several sources discussing exit velocity gainers, it’s time to look at what matters. A few years ago in The Athletic, Rob Arthur found the following:
That precision makes it useful. It turns out that the hardest-hit batted ball a player strikes is enough on its own to predict whether a player will outperform their PECOTA projection.
For every mile per hour above 108, a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.
Using the batters MaxEV from the past three seasons, here are the guys who have set a new high over 108 mph. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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It’s a very straightforward Wednesday with 6 of my Top 10 and 20 of the 30 landing in my Top 60 pitchers. Let me know if you have any questions or comments below! I stay on top of the comments so in a case like Monday where Thomas Harrington was called up, I’ll definitely get in there and give my thoughts if someone asks about them.
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.
Note: Normally players with no MLB experience can be added in NFBC leagues. The first week is the exception so several prospects were added.
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
Welcome to the regular season, and welcome to the first in-season edition of Position Player Playing Time Changes! This will be very similar to the Spring Training editions, but with a change to go over.
During Spring Training, the changes had been shown in plate appearances, since every team had a full season to play, but it’ll now be displayed in percentage of remaining plate appearances. T are 700 plate appearances available to each player at the start of the season, but there are only 350 available when the player’s team has played 81 games, for example. So you and I both won’t have to constantly re-contextualize what remaining plate appearance means relative to games played, we’ll stick with percentages now.
To start the year, I’ll be using a cutoff of a 10% plate appearance swing in either direction, but that cutoff will go down as the season goes on (since 10% of 158 games is the same as 5% of 78). Occasionally, I’ll include players a little bit under the cutoff if they’re notable enough. Without further ado, let’s get to it:
Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.
The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
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The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. For now, the data is for 2024 until we start getting to 4-5 starts for guys. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 6 months to work and ratios can move a lot all year long. And it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, either, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.
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Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone. Tonight I’m sipping on some Early Times Bottled in Bond.
7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Tout Wars changed hosts and we are still having issues getting all the league public, so I just have the results from the 15-team auction that I’m in.
7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:
7:32
see gee: I’m looking for some high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers to gamble on early in the season. Who comes to mind?
7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Brown, Roupp, Severino, Smith-Shawver
7:33
Alex Cora: Did I mess Devers up with my whole you’re my 3B now you’re my DH switcheroo
