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Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – August 18, 2025

Here is today’s chat transcript:
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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 18th, 2025

Lexi Thompson-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:31
mitch: yoendrys gomez looked great against detroit. he’s lined up for a two step. thoughts on him?

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not going to start him for the two-step, but I don’t mind adding him in case it goes great.

7:33
Guest: Is Ranger Suarez SEA/@WAS worth the start in a 12 team roto league if I could just sub in Weaver or Vest in his place? I have needs for Ws most but don’t want more ratio damage either.

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FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 20)

Erik Williams-Imagn Images
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (8/16/25)


Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

Bryce Teodosio (.357/.379/.500 and 3 SB in 30 PA) started in 10 of 11 games.

Christian Moore has only one start in the last five games.

Astros

Ramón Urías started in four of the last five games at second base. With Houston, Urias is batting .320/.370/.520 with 1 HR.

Athletics

Colby Thomas (vs LHP) and Lawrence Butler (vs RHP) are in a centerfield platoon.

Blue Jays

Ty France started in nine of 12 games since being acquired.

Andrés Giménez started in both games against righties and sat against a lefty.

Guardians

Angel Martínez started only three times in the last six games.

Mariners

• No changes.

Orioles

• While batting either fourth or fifth, Ryan Mountcastle started six straight games since coming off the IL.

• The current outfield contains Dylan Carlson, Daniel Johnson, Ryan Noda, Jeremiah Jackson, and Greg Allen. Even the Royals are laughing at that sad ass group.

Rangers

Jake Burger and Rowdy Tellez split time at first base.

Rays

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (.209/.303/.343, 5 SB) with 11 starts in the last 13 games.

• Catcher Hunter Feduccia (.433 OPS) started in seven of 11 games since being promoted.

Red Sox

Romy Gonzalez and Abraham Toro are splitting time at first base. It’s not true platoon.

Royals

• Against righties, Mike Yastrzemski leads off.

Adam Frazier with 13 starts in the last 15 games.

Nick Loftin and John Rave split time in left field.

Tigers

Trey Sweeney started four times in the last five games since his promotion.

Twins

• Lots of bodies, but Byron Buxton might be the only fantasy-relevant bat. The only other possible option is Luke Keaschall (155 OPS+, batting in the middle of the lineup).

White Sox

Colson Montgomery now bats third.

Curtis Mead (.645 OPS) with eight straight starts.

Yankees

Ben Rice with eight straight starts.

Paul Goldschmidt (.629 OPS over the last month) with only five starts in the last 10 games.

National League

Braves

Marcell Ozuna started in eight of the last nine games.

Nacho Alvarez Jr. (.570 OPS) with nine third base starts in the last 11 games.

Brewers

Anthony Seigler (vs RHP) and Caleb Durbin (vs LHP) are in a third base platoon.

Isaac Collins now bats second.

Cardinals

Thomas Saggese (.260 AVG, 1 HR, 1 SB in 135 PA) with six straight starts.

Cubs

Willi Castro with only one start in the last five games.

Diamondbacks

• Steady and here are how the new starters are performing:

Name: OPS
Blaze Alexander: .821
Tyler Locklear: .579
Adrian Del Castillo: .596

Dodgers

• Since being promoted, Alex Freeland (.510 OPS) started in 11 of 13 games.

Alex Call (.729 OPS) with three starts in the last four games. Call seems to be taking over Michael Conforto’s (.627 OPS) left field job.

Giants

Drew Gilbert with five starts in the last six games (.118 OPS).

Casey Schmitt (.737 OPS) with 13 starts in the last 14 games. He hit second and third in the last two games.

Marlins

• Quite a few timeshares are going on

Heriberto Hernández with five straight starts and 7 HR in 156 PA.

Jakob Marsee sat against two of the three lefty starters since being promoted.

Mets

Mark Vientos (.641 OPS) has NOT started in the last four games with Brett Baty (.712 OPS) starting instead.

Nationals

Paul DeJong with seven starts in the last nine games.

Daylen Lile (.259/.305/.389, 2 HR, 5 SB) with 17 starts in the last 19 games.

Padres

Gavin Sheets started in just two of the last 10 games.

Freddy Fermin (.355/.394/.484 with SD) with seven starts at catcher in the last 10 games.

Phillies

• The outfield is a mess. In a shallow league, I’m not sure if any of them are rosterable, including Nick Castellanos (.178/.204/.289).

Otto Kemp and Edmundo Sosa are splitting time at third base.

Pirates

Jared Triolo (.179/.271/.274, 3 HR, 5 SB in 205 PA) with 12 starts in 13 games.

Reds

• Too many healthy regulars with Austin Hays, Gavin Lux, and Matt McLain taking playing time hits.

Miguel Andujar (.370/.469/.778, 3 HR in 32 PA with the Reds) started six straight games, five as the cleanup hitter, including two games against lefties.

Rockies

• Catcher-qualified Braxton Fulford (.222/.239/.333) started in seven of the last 10 games.


Starting Pitcher Chart – August 16th, 2025

Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I’ll try to get y’all as many weekend boards as I can down the stretch!

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: August 15, 2025

Jim Rassol – Imagn Images

It’s stretch run time, and contenders are continuing to reevaluate who can best help them win now — even involving some players who teams thought might be more win-later than win-now, like Nolan McLean. Here’s what’s changed in the past week.

Change in % of Team’s Remaining GS, 8/7 to 8/15
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Nolan McLean NYM 5% 13% 8% Making first MLB start Saturday
Victor Mederos LAA 1% 8% 7% Taking Kochanowicz’s rotation spot
Landen Roupp SFG 9% 16% 7% Back from IL on Friday
Chris Sale ATL 5% 12% 7% Began rehab assignment
Yoendrys Gómez CHW 1% 7% 6% Took Cannon’s rotation spot
Chase Dollander COL 10% 16% 6% Back from AAA
Joey Estes ATH 3% 8% 5% Could take SP5 spot, though Morales is also an option
Javier Assad CHC 2% 7% 5% Back from IL
Ryan Bergert KCR 9% 14% 5% Sticking in rotation with Lorenzen back
Chase Burns CIN 9% 4% -5% Grade 1 flexor strain
Logan Henderson MIL 6% 1% -5% Elbow inflammation
Carson Whisenhunt SFG 13% 7% -6% Sent to AAA
Michael King SDP 17% 11% -6% Knee inflammation
Shane McClanahan TBR 7% 0% -7% Season-ending nerve surgery
Anthony DeSclafani ARI 16% 7% -9% Thumb inflammation
Jack Kochanowicz LAA 15% 6% -9% Sent to AAA
Frankie Montas NYM 12% 3% -9% Moved to bullpen
Zach Eflin BAL 11% 0% -11% Season-ending back surgery
Bailey Falter KCR 16% 5% -11% Moved to bullpen
Jonathan Cannon CHW 17% 5% -12% Sent to AAA
Colton Gordon HOU 14% 2% -12% Sent to AAA
Carlos Carrasco ATL 13% 0% -13% DFA’d
Luis Severino ATH 19% 6% -13% Strained oblique

 

Change in % of RP IP, 8/8 to 8/15
Name Team % Chg in Proj. RP IP Reason
Luinder Avila KCR 333% Recalled from AAA
Bailey Horn DET 320% Recalled from AAA
Bailey Falter KCR 243% Pitching out of bullpen
Logan Evans SEA 242% Bryce Miller nearing return
Tylor Megill NYM 175% Bullpen is a possibility when he returns
Juan Morillo ARI 125% Has moved up the depth chart
Colton Gordon HOU 117% Bullpen is the likeliest place for him if he returns from AAA
Robert Gasser MIL 113% Bullpen is the likeliest place for him if he returns this year
Hayden Harris ATL 100% Dominating AAA
Bobby Miller LAD 88% Pitching well since move to bullpen in AAA
Michael Kopech RP 71% Nearing return from IL
Cam Booser RP 50% Back from AAA
Cristian Javier RP -39% Should stick in rotation
Hunter Harvey RP -44% Strained groin
Brock Stewart RP -45% Shoulder inflammation
Quinn Priester RP -46% Will stick in rotation, surely
Josh Hader RP -62% Shoulder strain
Zack Littell RP -100% Will stick in rotation
Félix Bautista RP -100% Season-ending shoulder injury

Big Kid Adds (Week 19)


Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Kyle Karros (11): The further I got into my FAAB last Sunday, the more I started liking the 23-year-old third baseman. Here are his Steamer600 comps.

If given full-time plate appearances, all the players listed can be 15-team contributors.

Karros’s main trait is putting the ball in play and should post a decent batting average with the possibility of double-digit stolen bases and home runs over a full season. The home runs could even increase if he were to keep the ball off the ground (47% GB%).

C.J. Kayfus (8): Eight starts in 10 games since being promoted, while being a solid hitter (.258/.303/.452, 1 HR, 1 SB). He is struggling to make contact (30% K%), especially with normal four-seam fastballs (16% SwStr%). Of the 555 batters who have seen 25 or more four-seamers this season, it’s the 41st highest value.

JJ Bleday (8):  A .588 BABIP since his last callup makes him seem like he’s on fire (.444/.483/.741). The problem is that he started in just six of the last 10 games. He is a 20 HR hitter, while not stealing bases and dragging down a team’s batting average.

Blaze Alexander (7): Playing (14 straight starts), hitting (.264/.362/.462, 4 HR 2 SB in 91 PA), and has seven games this week with four in Colorado.

Romy Gonzalez (6): I was a little surprised to see Gonzalez on the list of adds with no lefties on the schedule. So far this week, he started against two righties, going three for eight (all singles). To be fantasy relevant, he needs to be on the field.

Brooks Baldwin (6): Baldwin is off the IL and playing (10 starts in 11 games). While not hitting for batting average (.222), he does have 7 HR and 4 SB. He makes a nice injury replacement since he’s qualified at outfield, second, third, and short.

Mike Yastrzemski (5): Strong-side platoon bat who faces five righties this week. So far with the Royals, he’s batting .188/.300/.469 with 2 HR.

Gabriel Arias (5): Back to starting with the Guardians (13 straight starts). While a .236 AVG (32% K%) is a bit of a drain, he does have 9 HR and 4 SB in 342 PA. Additionally, he’s qualified at three positions (2B, SS, 3B).

Darell Hernaiz (5): Starting while Jacob Wilson is on the IL (possibly returning next week). While struggling with a .190 BABIP, he does have 2 HR and 1 SB in 56 PA. He’s not overmatched with a 7% K% (5% SwStr%). He might be trading weak contact (52% GB%, 34% HardHit%) for the contact.

Victor Robles (5): Robles is on his way back from the IL (shoulder). My worry with Robles is that he might end up on the short side of a platoon with Dominic Canzone.

Name: Career OPS vs LHP, vs RHP
Robles: .722, .675
Canzone: .495, .732

Additionally, Canzone has been solid with a 125 wRC+ while Robles sported a 76 wRC+ before going on the IL.

Curtis Mead (5): The #9 hitter for the White Sox. With a career 81 wRC+. Who might reach double-digit steals and home runs in a full season? What does he do?

Starters

Cade Cavalli (11): Every part of his profile (8.7 K/9, 53% GB%, 3.86 ERA, 3.93 xFIP) looks great except the walks (3.9 BB/9). The walks have him with a 1.50 WHIP, which is doing as much ratio damage in a roto league as a 5.52 ERA. His 38% Ball% is the equivalent of a 4.0 BB/9. He’s always had issues with walks with a 4.4 BB/9 throughout the minors.

Cavalli is a fine addition in point leagues or for teams that don’t care about their WHIP.

Luis Gil (10): Like Cavalli, Gil struggles with walks (career 4.8 BB/9), and there are no signs of them improving this year (5.2 BB/9, 38% Ball% for equiv 4.0 B/9). If Gil hadn’t run a .237 BABIP last season, he’s likely not on anyone’s radar. In the second half, when he posted just a .262 BABIP, he had an unremarkable 1.42 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. In two starts this year, it’s a 7.27 ERA (4.63 xFIP) and 1.85 WHIP.

Additionally, his results could even get worse if his home runs regress upward. Normally, pitchers with a 35% GB% (career) have a 1.4 HR/9, not the 1.1 HR/9 that Gil has posted.

Hurston Waldrep (10): Finally, a pitcher I can get behind. The 1.54 ERA won’t last (0.0 HR/9, .226 BABIP, 80% LOB%), but so far he looks to be a high-3.00 ERA talent.

He’s got two amazing pitches. A splitter with a 27% SwStr% (STUPH models are off the charts) and a sinker with an 11% SwStr% and 50% GB%.

Shane Smith (6): Without a cupcake schedule, I was surprised to see the Shane Smith love. He’s been fine this year with a 4.01 ERA (4.41 xFIP), 1.28 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. But just 3 Wins in 21 starts. There are worse options.

Troy Melton (6): Speculation came out late during the weekend that Melton might return to the rotation and start on Wednesday. He did start going 5 IP with 0 ER and 6 K. The only question now is if he’ll stay in the rotation or go back to the bullpen. As a starter this season, he posted a 3.18 ERA (3.04 xFIP), 9.5 K/9, and 0.88 WHIP.

Jason Alexander (6):  While a solid starter (2.83 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 6.9 K/9), he could be losing his rotation spot with Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier coming off the IL.

Brandon Walter (5): On the IL with an elbow injury. He was great in his nine starts (3.35 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9)

Relievers

Justin Topa (7): While Topa isn’t the most talented reliever (3.50 ERA to 3.75 ERA talent), every sign points to him being the Twins closer.

Riley O’Brien (7): The 30-year-old righty was added in the hope JoJo Romero can’t hold the closer’s job. The deal is, Romero and O’Brien have posted similar stats this season.

Name: ERA, xFIP, K%
O’Brien: 1.69, 3.68, 23%
Romero: 2.36, 3.96, 23%

David Bednar (5): Was a good closer, then became a good setup man, and now he’s a good closer again.

 

Players Added In NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Cade Cavalli 11 55 3
Kyle Karros 11 25 1
Luis Gil 10 205 38
Hurston Waldrep 10 36 2
CJ Kayfus 8 64 2
JJ Bleday 8 12 1
Blaze Alexander 7 29 5
Justin Topa 7 23 3
Riley O’Brien 7 17 1
Shane Smith 6 18 1
Romy Gonzalez 6 14 1
Brooks Baldwin 6 14 3
Troy Melton 6 7 1
Jason Alexander 6 5 2
David Bednar 5 145 38
Mike Yastrzemski 5 35 1
Brandon Walter 5 13 1
Gabriel Arias 5 11 1
Darell Hernaiz 5 9 2
Victor Robles 5 9 2
Curtis Mead 5 4 1
Chris Sale 4 140 47
Jordan Walker 4 95 1
Phil Maton 4 44 16
J.T. Ginn 4 31 3
Nick Martinez 4 29 3
Miguel Andujar 4 16 1
Elvis Alvarado 4 14 1
Tylor Megill 4 13 1
Tanner Scott 4 12 2
Kai-Wei Teng 4 2 1

 


Starting Pitcher Chart – August 15th, 2025

Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – August 14th, 2025

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

  • Skubal is obviously far and away the best pitcher going today (though divisional gms on the road can be tricky!)
  • Of the Senga-Luzardo-Boyd trio, Boyd’s been the best guy pitch-for-pitch but has far and away the toughest matchup which drove the hair-splitting rankings of them
  • I still think the Marlins should’ve sold high on Cabrera, but it seems the SP market didn’t materialize for the top end ones; he’s tried to keep them in the playoff mix w/2 absolute gems since the deadline: 1.29 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 18 Ks, 2 BB in 14 IP
  • I’m inclined to start Scherzer everywhere when he’s healthy
  • Bibee is far from a must-start w/MIA surging to 5th in wOBA vR over the L30
  • It might just be an injury washout (& he’s looked fine in his 2 starts off the IL), but I do think he lives on a thin margin so when it does go, it’ll be quick. 90-91 mph fastballs with a 1.5 HR9 don’t age super well. It’s giving Kevin Slowey vibes – a pitcher I loved along with Scot Baker (who also had this profile type!)
  • Lord has a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts since returning to the rotation, but a modest 12% K-BB says it’s more run-hot than breakout

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