Starting Pitcher Chart – March 31st, 2025

by Paul Sporer

March 31, 2025

Welcome back to the Daily SP Chart! I figure the first weekend was pretty straightforward which is why I didn’t fire it up on Thursday. Now that we’re in the swing of things, it’s time to get it going again.

The chart includes their performance for 2024 until we get some actual data for this year (I changed over in late-April last year), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (not a perfect solution as teams change in the offseason, but better than using just a few days of data from this year), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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The 2-Start chart is a Monday feature ranking the expected 2-start pitchers. For now, the data is for 2024 until we start getting to 4-5 starts for guys. I am a bit riskier early in the season when it comes to 2-start guys. It does a bit more pressure on the ratios if you eat too many blowups, but we’ve got 6 months to work and ratios can move a lot all year long. And it’s not like I’m just frivolously starting any 2-start arm, either, just that I’ll take on some tougher starts to get the potential gem against one of the worst teams in the league.

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Let me know if you have any questions or comments below!

Starter Notes March 31, 2025

RK	PITCHER	GAME	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	wOBA RK 2024	NOTE
1	Tyler Glasnow	LAD v ATL	x	x	x	134	3.49	0.95	25%	17th
2	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI v COL	x	x	x	181	3.32	1.24	14%	21st
3	Drew Rasmussen	TBR v PIT	x	x	x	28	2.83	1.08	25%	28th
4	David Peterson	NYM at MIA	x	x	x	121	2.90	1.29	11%	29th	I’ll take on a lot of tough starts to get at MIA and D Pete’s v TOR this wknd isn’t close to the riskiest
5	Jackson Jobe	DET at SEA	x	x	x	4	0.00	0.50	6%	18th	Diving in headfirst with one of the best pitching prospects in baseball
6	Ronel Blanco	HOU v SFG	x	x	x	167	2.80	1.09	14%	25th
7	Kris Bubic	KCR at MIL	x	x	x	30	2.67	1.02	28%	13th	I’m in on the Bubic hype train this year
8	Ben Brown	CHC at ATH	x	x	x	55	3.58	1.08	20%	23rd	Him securing the rotation spot snuck up on me but I’m excited to see what he can do; easily running him here, interested in the 2-step
9	Chris Paddack	MIN at CHW	x	x	x	88	4.99	1.39	15%	30th	Still allowed 2.0 HR9 in ST, but 23% K-BB and 14% SwStr, too; not a slamdunk for 2-step w/v HOU
10	Bowden Francis	TOR v WSN		x	x	103	3.30	0.93	17%	20th	Will be watching to see if he can sustain a consistently low BABIP or if he can’t, does he have the skills to survive?
11	Kumar Rocker	TEX at CIN		x	x	11	3.86	1.54	15%	19th	Not a great landing spot for his debut, but I think I take it on to get the 2-step v. TBR this wknd
12	Brady Singer	CIN v TEX		x	x	179	3.71	1.27	15%	24th
13	Cade Povich	BAL v BOS		x	x	79	5.20	1.43	10%	11th	Strong spring earned him a spot, but the heat gets turned up immediately w/BOS & at KCR to start the season
14	Emerson Hancock	SEA v DET		x	x	60	4.75	1.34	8%	22nd	Super boring, but neither DET or at SFG completely scare me so might be worth the spin, mostly in deep lgs, though
15	Tyler Anderson	LAA at STL		x	x	179	3.81	1.29	9%	23rd	Definitely more of a deep league play but it’s not a terrible 2-step w/CLE on Sunday
16	Grant Holmes	ATL at LAD			x	68	3.56	1.19	20%	2nd	It’s probably prudent to sit him here despite how much I love him for the year… I would start him in a weekly to get MIA this wknd
17	Michael Soroka	WSN at TOR			x	79	4.74	1.38	12%	12th	Big start here to see where he’s at after 2 good, 2 bad starts in ST w/his last 2 being the duds; mega dud here would raise some alarm bells
18	Miles Mikolas	STL v LAA			x	171	5.35	1.28	13%	27th
19	Kyle Hart	SDP v CLE			x	0	0.00	0.00	0%	8th
20	Jordan Hicks	SFG at HOU				109	4.10	1.45	10%	8th	I just don’t want to deal w/the headache of Hicks as an SP
21	Sean Newcomb	BOS at BAL				10	6.30	1.70	-2%	7th	I gotta see something before I jump on board here
22	Luis L. Ortiz	CLE at SDP				135	3.32	1.11	12%	4th	Brutal spring included 15% BB and 1.5 HR9
23	Carmen Mlodzinski	PIT at TBR				50	3.38	1.18	13%	29th
24	Cal Quantrill	MIA v NYM				148	4.98	1.52	6%	11th
25	Martín Pérez	CHW v MIN				135	4.53	1.48	10%	12th
26	Germán Márquez	COL at PHI				4	6.75	2.25	-5%	9th
27	Joey Estes	ATH v CHC				127	5.01	1.23	12%	14th
28	Elvin Rodriguez	MIL v KCR				0	0.00	0.00	0%	13th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

2-Start Chart for the Week of Mar. 31st

RANK	PITCHER	TYPE	MATCHUPS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	Pitch+
1	Corbin Burnes	1	at NYY/at WSN	194.1	2.92	1.10	17%	106
2	Tyler Glasnow	1	ATL/at PHI	134	3.49	0.95	25%	102
3	Cristopher Sánchez	2	COL/LAD	181.2	3.32	1.24	14%	103
4	Drew Rasmussen	2	PIT/at TEX	28.2	2.83	1.08	25%	102
5	Jackson Jobe	2	at SEA/CHW	4	0.00	0.50	6%	97
6	Ronel Blanco	2	SFG/at MIN	167.1	2.80	1.09	14%	103
7	Kris Bubic	3	at MIL/BAL	30.1	2.67	1.02	28%	115
8	David Peterson	3	at MIA/TOR	121	2.90	1.29	11%	98
9	Grant Holmes	3	at LAD/MIA	68.1	3.56	1.19	20%	99
10	Brady Singer	3	TEX/at MIL	179.2	3.71	1.27	15%	99
11	Bowden Francis	4	WSN/at NYM	103.2	3.30	0.93	17%	102
12	Ben Brown	4	at ATH/SDP	55.1	3.58	1.08	20%	93
13	Kumar Rocker	4	at CIN/TBR	11.2	3.86	1.54	15%	104
14	Michael Soroka	4	at TOR/ARI	79.2	4.74	1.38	12%	91
15	Will Warren	4	ARI/at PIT	22.2	10.32	1.90	17%	103
16	Cade Povich	4	BOS/at KCR	79.2	5.20	1.43	10%	98
17	Emerson Hancock	4	DET/at SFG	60.2	4.75	1.34	8%	101
18	Germán Márquez	5	at PHI/ATH	4	6.75	2.25	-5%	96
19	Tyler Anderson	5	at STL/CLE	179.1	3.81	1.29	9%	98
20	Chris Paddack	5	at CHW/HOU	88.1	4.99	1.39	15%	113
21	Kyle Hart	5	CLE/at CHC	0	0.00	0.00	0%	–
22	Sean Newcomb	5	at BAL/STL	10	6.30	1.70	-2%	82
23	Luis L. Ortiz	5	at SDP/at LAA	135.2	3.32	1.11	12%	100
24	Miles Mikolas	5	LAA/at BOS	171.2	5.35	1.28	13%	108
25	Jordan Hicks	6	at HOU/SEA	109.2	4.10	1.45	10%	94
26	Martín Pérez	5	MIN/at DET	135	4.53	1.48	10%	104
27	Cal Quantrill	6	NYM/at ATL	148.1	4.98	1.52	6%	97
28	Joey Estes	6	CHC/at COL	127.2	5.01	1.23	12%	107

10 Comments

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alang3131982Member since 2016

1 year ago

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSss

GreggMember since 2020

It’s always good to see Paul more bullish on a pitcher that I also like (Bubic).

My play this week is to sit him in a 12 teamer (full go on 15 tm) to assess against a really good offense in BAL. I’m also wary about his pitch count still being built up. I do really like the potential though.

Reply to Gregg

Smart enough to roster Bubic, dumb enough to not start him. It bodes well for ROS that he’s had a good game though.

AnonMember since 2025

Sometimes the best move is no move, example #497: decided I was going to stream in Paddack but wasn’t super sold on it TBH. Got busy with something (stupid work) and looked up and the game had just started. . . .

That 2019 season just seems further and further and further away

Last edited 1 year ago by Anon

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

Reply to Anon

thank godddd… can’t believe i tried to kick the football again. lesson learned!!

Reply to Paul Sporer

Worse yet, I have both Buxton and Correa and Paddack put them in such a deep hole that both got yanked after 1 PA. . .

ricosauve3Member since 2025

I play Draftkings, your SP be good for daily? Guessing Glasnow for sure, other could be Drew, Brown or Francis, thanks

murraygd13Member since 2026

Emerson Hancock sucks

PAUL!! Take cover!!! It’s ARMageddon out there today with blowups!

Ya there were some BRUUUUTTTAAALLL streams today. I knew Paddack wasn’t some lock, but I thought he could hang v. CHW!!!