2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the shortstop position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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107-55 (1st in Division; 1st in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 58 (5th)

RP Wins: 49 (2nd)

Saves: 56 (t-1st)

1+ Save: 8 (Jake McGee 31, Tyler Rogers 13, Camilo Doval 3, Zack Littell, Dominic Leone, Caleb Baragar, Wandy Peralta 2, Jarlín García 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Kevin Gausman 227, Logan Webb 158, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood 152)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Buster Posey .304, Brandon Crawford .298, Donovan Solano .280, Brandon Belt .274, Wilmer Flores .262)

65+ Runs: 5 (Kris Bryant 86, Crawford 79, Mike Yastrzemski 75, Posey 68, Belt 65)

65+ RBI: 3 (Crawford 90, Bryant 73, Yastrzemski 71)

10+ HRs: 11 (Belt 29, Yastrzemski, Bryant 25, Crawford 24, LaMonte Wade Jr., Flores, Posey 18, Darin Ruf 러프 16, Evan Longoria, Alex Dickerson 13, Austin Slater 12)

5+ SBs: 6 (Slater 15, Crawford 11, Steven Duggar 7, Wade Jr., Kris Bryant 6)

BEST BUY: Alex Wood

It is hard to settle on a Best Buy because so many of their guys have injury issues that are built into their price. Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb, and Brandon Belt are all in the 200-260 pick range which is a very fair price for what they are capable of doing. Wood rebounded after pitching just 48.3 innings in 2019-20 and posted a career-best 26% K rate that helped him to a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 138.7 IP. The talent is clear, it all comes down to his health. Just plan for 125 or so innings and take anything beyond that as a bonus.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the second base position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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• It seems like Seiya Suzuki will wait out the labor dispute and sign with a major league team.

The labor impasse almost assuredly will continue past Feb. 1, when Hiroshima opens its spring camp in Okinawa. But the Carp are expected to be without their former franchise star, who left little doubt that he’s committed to coming to America despite the current stalemate between MLB and the union.

“I’m just going to wait until both sides agree,” said Suzuki, who arrived in Okinawa last week to conduct workouts on his own. “There’s no date I set on myself. In Japan, you don’t experience a lockout so it’s a first for me. At first, I was a little worried about it. But when you think about it, it’s going to end sometime soon. Just having that positive mindset that it will end sometime has allowed me to keep my head up.”

Since the first of the month, he has an NFBC ADP of 209 and that should shoot up once he signs.

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106-56 (2nd in Division; 3rd in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 65 (1st)

RP Wins: 41 (11th)

Saves: 56 (t-1st)

1+ Save: 10 (Kenley Jansen 38, Blake Treinen 7, Corey Knebel 3, Joe Kelly 2, Phil Bickford, Victor Gonzalez, David Price, Alex Vesia, Andre Jackson, Shane Greene 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Walker Buehler 212, Julio Urías 195, Clayton Kershaw 144, Trevor Bauer 137)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Trea Turner .338 in 228 PA [total: .328 in 646 PA], Corey Seager .306, AJ Pollock .297, Justin Turner .278, Mookie Betts .264)

65+ Runs: 4 (Max Muncy 95, Betts 93, Chris Taylor 92, J.Turner 87)

65+ RBI: 5 (Muncy 94, J.Turner 87, Will Smith 76, Taylor 73, Pollock 69)

10+ HRs: 10 (Muncy 36, J.Turner 27, Smith 25, Betts 23, Pollock 21, Taylor 20, Seager 16, Albert Pujols 12, Cody Bellinger, T.Turner 10 [total: 28])

5+ SBs: 4 (Taylor 13, T.Turner 11 [total: 32], Betts 10, Pollock 9)

BEST BUY: Trea Turner

I know, this is a super-boring pick as Turner is literally the 1.1 pick in many drafts, but the incredible upside combined with a rock-solid and relatively high floor are exactly what you want in those first few picks of the draft. The move to LA also added some eligibility as he will be 2B/SS in 2022. Some of their oldies like Justin Turner, AJ Pollock, and Chris Taylor might offer more bang for the buck given where they go in drafts, but their age (37, 34, and 31, respectively) dings the stability of their floors a bit.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the third base position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/
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A few days ago, I wrote an article examining Reid Detmers. For Detmers, I posted the following table on comparable curveballs and the lack of results.

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1/18/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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IN FOCUS: STEAMER600 GEMS

• Oneil Cruz (5:15)
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• Harold Ramirez (25:28)
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There are a myriad of differences between valuing players and general drafting strategy for a 15-team (or deeper) league versus a 12-team (or shallower) league but I believe the starkest ones lie at reliever. Since this makes doing ‘one-size fits all” rankings particularly difficult, here are a few notes about how I approached them. Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction

In 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the original article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). Now, just days ahead of the release of the 2022 ATC Projections, the projections comparison article is back for its fourth consecutive year!

The approach used in this article is not the standard projections comparison analysis that most others use. The standard analysis involves calculating least square errors, performing chi-squared tests, or perhaps even hypothesis testing. Some type of statistical measure is used to determine the most accurate projections.

For example, late last year – my fellow RotoGraphs colleague Jeff Zimmerman put out a series of in-depth projection comparison accuracy articles. His study centered around the root mean squared error test applied to all projection sets surveyed. The first installment of this excellent series can be found here.

My methodology does not incorporate a statistical model. Instead, it looks to determine the profitability potential of each projection system by simulating what would have happened in a fantasy auction draft. Instead, it games the projections.

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