It’s time to go out on limb and make a few BOLD predictions. All of the ranks will be determined by using our auction calculator. All ADP mentioned is from 11 NFBC Main Event drafts. Read the rest of this entry »

Below are the latest playing time changes for position players since last Friday. The highlight here is a couple Reds developments opening more playing time for Christian Encarnacion-Strand:

Below are the latest playing time changes for pitchers since Thursday, with the big development being the Rangers scrambling to fill their rotation after injuries to Jon Gray and Cody Bradford.

Below are the latest playing time changes (in plate appearances) for position players since Wednesday. Kristian Campbell might be an even bigger factor this year than we thought!

• Keith Law reviews several players on why they will break out this season.

American League

Angels

• José Suarez lost 20 pounds before camp this year.

LHP José Suarez
2024 stats: 6.02 ERA, 52 1/3 IP, 56 K, 27 BB
Spring Training stats: 2.57 ERA, 7 IP, 9 K, 1 BB

Suarez has undoubtedly struggled the last two seasons, but he pitched better down the stretch last year after he was designated for assignment in mid-June, which served as a wakeup call. He also came into camp 20 pounds lighter this spring and has looked sharp on the mound, including striking out six in three innings against the Mariners on Thursday night.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below are the notable pitcher playing time changes in the last 48 hours or so. For further detail on the methodology and more recent changes, my first rundown from Tuesday is here.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s Main Event season!! For the unaware, the Main Event is the high-stakes marquee contest over at the NFBC where everyone competes in 15-team leagues but also in one giant 700+ team league against everyone. If you want to get into the NFBC but don’t quite want to jump into the Main just yet, they have leagues at all sorts of price points to get started. This is not an ad, but I’m a huge fan of the NFBC so I’m happy to gas them up to anyone looking to get into the mix!

Anyway, with the Mains rolling I wanted to take a look at who’s moving up so far. Starting pitching is notoriously priced up in Main Events as teams don’t want to be left short on the mound and as injuries pile up in spring, a lot of managers start to move their favorite SPs up the board. I took a look at the first 3 Main Events and compared SP prices to the Rotowire Online Championship leagues which is a 12-team format that functions similarly to the Main. It’s at a lower price point so there are far more teams, but it has that same overall component that makes these NFBC events so unique.

I broke things down by pick range instead of just looking at the biggest movers overall or else all 15 guys would’ve been from the later rounds. Without further ado, 15 significant SP risers through 3 Mains (there has been a 4th since I pulled the data, but I’d already made my charts and everything so I didn’t get it into the mix):

Read the rest of this entry »

There aren’t many big changes since our first iteration of this series, but knowing that it’s draft time, I’ll be keeping you posted on hitters every other day until the season starts! Here’s the playing time swings of at least 70 plate appearances since Monday.

Read the rest of this entry »

• There are a couple of decent articles covering the entire league. The first is on each team’s top position battle. The other is on each team’s Spring Training breakout player.

American League

Astros

• After being drafted just last season, Cam Smith is being considered for the Opening Day roster …

Smith’s standout performance across the first three weeks of spring training must at least merit consideration. Asked Wednesday by Foul Territory to discuss one positive and negative coming from major-league spring training, Brown brought up Smith without prompt.

“The most exciting thing right now has been for me to watch Cam Smith and watch him develop. … He’s really creating a lot of conversation,” Brown said.

…

Brown retained his rookie eligibility, stayed within the required top-100 prospect lists and accrued a full year of major-league service time in 2023. Thus, Brown remains PPI-eligible. Houston will receive a comp pick after the first round of the 2026 draft should Brown finish in the top three of American League Cy Young Award or MVP voting this season.

Perhaps the Astros try something similar with Smith this season. If Walker’s injury is short-term, Houston could carry Smith to begin the season, demote him when Walker is ready to return and attempt to preserve his rookie status.

… and will start getting outfield reps.

Cam Smith will play right field in a Grapefruit League game soon, Joe Espada said.

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) March 11, 2025

Rangers

• Jack Leiter is being considered for the rotation.

Leiter made his MLB debut last season, but he had some ups and downs, allowing 39 runs (35 earned) in 35 2/3 innings. He figures to be an important piece of the Rangers’ rotation plans this season, no matter what happens this spring.

“Jack put himself in a great spot,” Young said. “There’s still a lot of Spring Training left, but he’s performed unbelievably well. He has gotten better each outing. Yesterday was the best I’ve seen him. We’d like to see him continue that. But he’s put himself in a great spot.”

Twins

• With most of the hitters healthy, Willi Castro is the favorite to win the second base job.

“As we sit here right now, we don’t have one player that I’m going to say, yeah, the guy is going to get 600 plate appearances over at second base,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said earlier in camp. “It might turn out like that, but we have a few guys that we can turn to. Guys that have shown us really good things, really good ability to perform at the major-league level.”

…

But with the way the roster is aligned, the Twins would lean toward giving the bulk of the time at second base to Castro.

Yankees

• Giancarlo Stanton can’t pick up everyday items.

Stanton has said he was playing through pain in both elbows for most of last season, including during the playoffs, when he earned MVP honors by hitting four home runs in the American League Championship Series against the Guardians.

He has been attempting what he called an “interesting” course of treatment in hopes of avoiding surgery, which Stanton said would be season-ending. Stanton said, at this time, he lacks grip strength and is “having trouble picking things up” in day-to-day life. He has not swung a bat since mid-January.

National League

Cardinals

• The centerfield battle is still undecided.

The center-field battle is neck-and-neck. It would be very unlikely for the Cardinals to carry both Scott and Siani, given their similarities and the need for versatility with the remainder of the bench. St. Louis seems to be comfortable using Lars Nootbaar as a backup center fielder. That means a true competition between Siani and Scott will take place over the final 14 games — and it’s anyone’s guess who will win it.

Giants

• The team ran out its Opening Day lineup.

So earlier this week, when Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters to take a good look at Thursday’s exhibition lineup once it was released, he didn’t give a reason. He didn’t say that the lineup — 1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SS Willy Adames, CF Jung Hoo Lee, 3B Matt Chapman, LF Heliot Ramos, C Patrick Bailey, DH Wilmer Flores, RF Mike Yastrzemski, 2B Tyler Fitzgerald — would be his projected batting order that will start behind Logan Webb in the March 27 season opener in Cincinnati. Melvin didn’t have to say anything more. His general giddiness gave the rest away. And he wasn’t the only one eager to see the lineup in action.

• The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly thinks Landen Roupp will be the team’s fifth starter.

Which starting pitcher would you expect to replace an injured or underperforming member of the opening day rotation? — Ralph K.

If we assume that Landen Roupp is the No. 5 starter, the next man up would be Birdsong or Harrison.

Padres

• Dennis Lin of The Athletic thinks Luis Campusano will start the season in the minors …

Catchers (2): Elias Díaz, Martín Maldonado

Others in camp: Luis Campusano, Brett Sullivan

The Padres could use an upgrade at this position. For now, they have four catchers in camp who might be better suited as backups. That collection includes Díaz, the highest-paid member of the group, and Maldonado, a veteran in the twilight of his career.

… and Stephen Kolek will be part of the rotation.

Starting pitchers (5): Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish, Nick Pivetta, Stephen Kolek

Others in camp: Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron
…
All of them could cycle through the big-league rotation this season, but Kolek might have a slight early edge for a spot. Saturday, he threw three hitless, efficient innings in a simulated game. At one point, Shildt said, Kolek recorded six consecutive “outs” on 13 pitches.

“He’s got a history of starting. We talked to him at Camp 44 about (stretching out into a starting role). He was enthused about it. I think he’s taken to it really well,” Shildt said. “And one of the things we talked about more conceptually — but now we’re seeing actually — is the ability to get to the point of six outs in 13 pitches. Quick outs. You got a really heavy, late pitch like (Kolek’s sinker), plus other pitches to match it, and it’s a recipe for early, softer contact. We’re still building him up, still evaluating it, but he’s off to a good start.”

Rockies

• The corner outfield spots have not been set yet.

Camp started with Nolan Jones projected in left field and Jordan Beck in right. Both have impact potential, and Jones proved it when he finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2023. But neither entered Saturday having hit balls consistently hard this spring, although Beck broke through with a long home run against the Angels on Monday. Black wants production.

“It’s pencil, not ink,” Black said. “We want to see good swings. We want to see good at-bats. We want to see good outfield play. In our eyes, we know what the big league outfielder looks like. That’s what we want to see.”

Corner outfielder Sean Bouchard, who entered last spring penciled in at right field before an oblique injury, entered Saturday hitting .400 with a homer, a triple and two doubles. Veteran non-roster performer Nick Martini, an outfielder-first baseman, was hitting .375 with two homers and four RBIs. And Black is giving regular time and long looks to No. 8 prospect Zac Veen and No. 6 prospect Yanquiel Fernandez.

Sam Hilliard entered Saturday 2-for-19, but his ability to play center field in a part-time role like last year allows the team to rest Brenton Doyle, helping his cause.

• Ezequiel Tovar is working on hitting breaking pitches.

At the end of last season, Tovar purchased a MaxBP Machine, which fires off those soft training balls that can imitate the spin of breaking pitches that have given him trouble in the past. Sometimes, Tovar increased the degree of difficulty by using a thinner bat. The Rockies have such a machine at Coors Field — hitting coach Hensley Meulens is a partner in the company — and hitters use them during the season.
…
The homer off Webb, on an inside changeup, would have threatened glass or harder materials. The at-bat illustrated the goal of the machine purchase. He took two fastballs, the first inside, the second middle-middle for a strike before crushing Webb’s inside changeup. After seeing balls from the machine all winter, Tovar arrived in camp with the goal of seeing more pitches thrown in Spring Training competition to hone his judgment of pitch location.

Following up on yesterday’s post going over position player playing time changes, we now turn our attention to the pitchers. Unlike hitters, where all playing time is shown in plate appearances, we’re splitting into two tables here. Starters are shown with games started, and relievers are shown with relief innings. When looking at our projections on a player page, you’ll notice that for all relievers, innings and games pitched are the same; that’s just how our projection system works to allocate reliever innings. I’d pay more attention to the innings, since the projected games pitched number will often be higher than the actually-expected number simply to inflate a pitcher’s innings to what we feel is accurate.

Read the rest of this entry »