Justin Mason’s NFBC Main Event Livestream
Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1800 NFBC Main Event team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool.
Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1800 NFBC Main Event team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool.
Angels
• Jack Kochanowicz made the Angels rotation, and the only place he’s rosterable right now is probably in AL-only leagues. There will be times he’ll be streamable, but for now, he’s a poor man’s Marcus Stroman. Both create a decent number of ground balls but can’t strike anyone out. At least Stroman had a 6.6 K/9 last season, while Kochanowicz’s was half that (3.4 K/9). Read the rest of this entry »
I examined why the following players were added in 30 or more NFBC Online Championships. I picked this format because some leagues were drafted in January. Most of the players are in order of most leagues added, except when I grouped some guys. The entire list is at the article’s end.
Landon Knack, Jon Berti, Alex Vesia, and Enrique Hernández
These four were added because their stats from the two games in Japan will count for the first week. Read the rest of this entry »
Here are the most impactful changes to position player playing time projections since March 21st, headlined by some big-name prospects making Opening Day rosters.
Player | Positions | Team | Old PA | New PA | PA Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Muncy | 3B, 2B, SS | ATH | 56 | 322 | 266 | Made Opening Day roster and could stave off Gelof for more PT when he’s back |
Cam Smith | RF, 3B | HOU | 182 | 434 | 252 | |
Alan Roden | CF, LF, RF, DH | TOR | 203 | 427 | 224 | Earned Opening Day spot, will have starting job at least until Varsho is back |
Rowdy Tellez | DH,1B | SEA | 147 | 350 | 203 | Made Opening Day roster as strong-side platoon DH |
Yuli Gurriel | 1B | SDP | 14 | 182 | 168 | Made Opening Day roster, should get some DH PA too |
Kristian Campbell | 2B, DH | BOS | 350 | 518 | 168 | Made Opening Day roster and will be a regular as long as he deserves it |
Brandon Lockridge | LF, CF | SDP | 42 | 189 | 147 | Made Opening Day roster; will platoon with Heyward in LF |
Cooper Hummel | RF | HOU | 14 | 140 | 126 | Not a sure thing but likelier to be on Opening Day roster than he has been |
Isaac Collins | 2B | MIL | 7 | 119 | 112 | All but guaranteed of Opening Day spot now, could spell Turang against LHP |
Ji Hwan Bae | 2B, CF | PIT | 42 | 147 | 105 | Should have Opening Day spot as PR/defense/some starts against righties |
Nick Martini | LF, DH, RF | COL | 42 | 133 | 91 | Contract selected, should play vs RHP to start but unsure of where PT will come from when Estrada is healthy |
Manuel Margot | CF, LF | DET | 56 | 147 | 91 | Starting CF with Meadows out? |
J.C. Escarra | C, DH | NYY | 91 | 182 | 91 | Won backup catcher job |
Gavin Sheets | DH, 1B, LF, RF | SDP | 238 | 322 | 84 | Officially on Opening Day roster; will mostly DH against RHP |
Bryan Ramos | DH, 3B | CHW | 133 | 217 | 84 | Injuries open up an Opening Day spot |
Jordan Beck | LF, RF, DH, CF | COL | 420 | 504 | 84 | Jones trade, Veen demotion opens up even more time |
Jake Bauers | 1B | MIL | 28 | 105 | 77 | Will be on Opening Day roster barring late addition as PH/occasional Hoskins sub |
Jose Iglesias | 2B, DH, 3B, SS | SDP | 266 | 336 | 70 | Earned Opening Day spot and should start against LHP |
Mark Canha | 1B, LF, RF, DH | KCR | 154 | 224 | 70 | Late acquisition from MIL, will play against LHP |
Brendan Rodgers | 2B | HOU | 196 | 266 | 70 | Not a guarantee to be on roster but could split 2B with Dubón |
Sean Bouchard | LF, DH, RF | COL | 175 | 245 | 70 | Jones trade, Veen demotion opens up more PT |
Gabriel Arias | 2B, 1B, SS, 3B | CLE | 266 | 336 | 70 | Freeman trade makes him the clear 2B until Brito is ready |
Zac Veen | LF, RF, CF | COL | 224 | 294 | 70 | Sent down, but should be up sooner than expected coming off strong Spring, Jones trade |
Chas McCormick | LF, RF, CF | HOU | 413 | 343 | -70 | Smith emergence makes PT harder to come by |
Jacob Melton | CF | HOU | 126 | 56 | -70 | With Cam Smith exploding, when will he be a factor? |
Alex Jackson | C | NYY | 98 | 21 | -77 | Lost backup catcher job to Escarra |
Joey Loperfido | LF, CF, 1B, RF | TOR | 140 | 63 | -77 | Will start season in minors, and Roden also being a lefty makes finding PT tough |
Connor Joe | LF, DH, 1B, RF | SDP | 217 | 133 | -84 | Nice Spring but having an option means he’ll start in AAA |
Jerar Encarnacion | DH, 1B, LF, RF | SFG | 308 | 224 | -84 | Broken finger requiring surgery |
Luis Campusano | C, DH | SDP | 287 | 203 | -84 | Lost backup catcher job to Maldonado |
Johnathan Rodriguez | LF, DH, RF | CLE | 119 | 28 | -91 | Jones trade makes future OF PT hard to come by |
Orelvis Martinez | DH, 3B, 2B | TOR | 245 | 154 | -91 | Starting season in minors and if Roden pops, Santander DHes more |
Thairo Estrada | 2B | COL | 518 | 420 | -98 | Broken wrist, out 4-8 weeks |
Luis Guillorme | 2B, 3B, SS | HOU | 126 | 28 | -98 | Won’t make team but could stick around as depth |
DJ Stewart | RF, LF, 1B | PIT | 119 | 21 | -98 | Won’t make team but could stick around as depth |
Tirso Ornelas | LF, DH, RF | SDP | 301 | 203 | -98 | Optioned to minors but should still factor in at some point |
Parker Meadows | CF | DET | 497 | 392 | -105 | 60-day IL with nerve issue |
Jon Singleton | DH, 1B | HOU | 112 | 0 | -112 | Released after not making roster |
Will Brennan | RF, CF, LF | CLE | 273 | 154 | -119 | Sent down after Jones trade |
Nelson Velazquez | RF, DH, LF | KCR | 133 | 7 | -126 | Outrighted off 40-man |
Masataka Yoshida | LF, DH | BOS | 259 | 133 | -126 | With Campbell on the roster, where will he find PA even if he can play OF? |
Brandon Drury | 2B, 3B, DH, 1B | CHW | 336 | 203 | -133 | Great spring ruined by fractured thumb |
Eguy Rosario | RF, 3B, SS, LF, DH, 2B | SDP | 238 | 35 | -203 | Won’t make team; out of options |
Zack Gelof | 2B | ATH | 630 | 364 | -266 | Hamate injuries don’t cost too much time but they do cost power; might Muncy keep his job when Gelof is back? |
This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything. I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.
Below are all of the changes in projected playing time (games started for starters, innings pitched for relievers) for pitchers since our last update on March 19. We learned quite a lot in the last five days, so this is our most robust update yet!
Pitcher | Team | Old GS | New GS | GS Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matthew Liberatore | STL | 3 | 18 | 15 | Won SP5 job over Matz |
Logan Allen | CLE | 6 | 19 | 13 | Won SP5 job over McKenzie |
Shane Smith | CHW | 6 | 16 | 10 | Likely SP5 over Bryse Wilson |
AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL | 13 | 19 | 6 | Won rotation spot; Anderson traded away |
Bryce Elder | ATL | 5 | 10 | 5 | Optioned to minors but Anderson trade opens starts up down the line |
Hayden Wesneski | HOU | 13 | 18 | 5 | Stronger hold on SP5 with Luis Garcia setback |
Griffin Canning | NYM | 13 | 16 | 3 | Tighter hold on rotation spot with excellent camp |
Joey Estes | ATH | 16 | 19 | 3 | Won SP5 over Spence, others |
Paul Blackburn | NYM | 11 | 8 | -3 | Rough camp; will start in bullpen |
Kyle Harrison | SFG | 16 | 13 | -3 | Officially lost SP5 to either Birdsong or Roupp |
Andrew Abbott | CIN | 24 | 21 | -3 | Not injured, but starting on IL as he continues to build up |
Joey Cantillo | CLE | 16 | 13 | -3 | Probably starting out in minors to stay stretched out |
Shinnosuke Ogasawara | WSN | 10 | 6 | -4 | Really bad Spring, starting in AAA |
Jared Jones | PIT | 28 | 24 | -4 | Continued uncertainty as we await word on elbow |
Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | 23 | 19 | -4 | Kept rotation spot but a rough camp means he has a lot to prove |
Ian Anderson | LAA | 15 | 10 | -5 | Likely to spend most of his time as an Angel in the bullpen |
Kenta Maeda | DET | 8 | 3 | -5 | Will start in bullpen; hard to see many starts with Jobe, Mize, eventually Cobb, maybe Montero |
Triston McKenzie | CLE | 18 | 13 | -5 | Starting out in bullpen; velocity is coming back but command hasn’t |
Mitch Spence | ATH | 19 | 13 | -6 | Opening the year in the bullpen |
Caden Dana | LAA | 13 | 6 | -7 | Really bad Spring + Ian Anderson addition means he might need more time than thought to keep developing |
Ryan Weathers | MIA | 26 | 19 | -7 | Starting season on IL (forearm strain) |
Luis Garcia | HOU | 18 | 11 | -7 | Setback in Tommy John recovery |
Cade Povich | BAL | 18 | 8 | -10 | Won SP5, but that’s more than canceled out by Gibson addition |
Quinn Mathews | STL | 16 | 6 | -10 | Six-man rotation, good McGreevy Spring means he’ll be eighth on the depth chart for a bit |
Drew Thorpe | CHW | 15 | 0 | -15 | Tommy John surgery, see you in 2026 🙁 |
Pitcher | Team | Old IP | New IP | IP Change | Reason |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Bowman | BAL | 15 | 52 | 37 | Contract selected; frontrunner for last bullpen spot |
Patrick Murphy | TEX | 24 | 60 | 36 | Dunning on outright waivers, Murphy can provide long relief |
Ryan Johnson | LAA | 10 | 44 | 34 | Impressive camp could get him on the roster sooner than later |
Hunter Stratton | PIT | 15 | 46 | 31 | Contract selected, should factor in soon if not Opening Day |
Ian Anderson | LAA | 13 | 42 | 29 | Likely to spend most of his time as an Angel in the bullpen |
Brad Keller | CHC | 26 | 54 | 28 | Not official yet, but should be last reliever to make bullpen |
Mitch Spence | ATH | 10 | 38 | 28 | Starting out in the bullpen after entering camp as SP5 |
Jackson Rutledge | WSN | 23 | 50 | 27 | Converting to relief full-time, likely to make Opening Day roster |
Zack Kelly | BOS | 26 | 50 | 24 | Nice Spring Training showing makes him less of an up-and-down option and closer to a stalwart |
Sean Newcomb | BOS | 14 | 36 | 22 | Likely to be SP5, move to bullpen after 1-2 of Giolito, Bello, Crawford return |
Joel Peguero | SFG | 14 | 34 | 20 | Went from under-the-radar NRI to possible Opening Day reliever, or early call-up |
Jonathan Hernández | TBR | 26 | 46 | 20 | Six good Spring appearances have him on the verge of an Opening Day spot |
Ryan Gusto | HOU | 18 | 36 | 18 | Haven’t fully committed, but could be in Opening Day bullpen |
Steven Matz | STL | 22 | 39 | 17 | Will start out in bullpen, move to rotation April 16 |
Kevin Kelly | TBR | 41 | 57 | 16 | Vasil trade, Faedo injury opens up PT |
Alex Faedo | TBR | 57 | 41 | -16 | Opening on IL with shoulder discomfort |
Sean Hjelle | SFG | 66 | 50 | -16 | Sent down after entering camp with a great shot at Opening Day bullpen, should be back soon though |
Declan Cronin | MIA | 67 | 50 | -17 | Starting season on IL (hip discomfort) |
AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL | 46 | 26 | -20 | Won last rotation spot, but could still get RP innings when Strider’s healthy |
Zach Pop | TOR | 56 | 35 | -21 | Starting season on IL (elbow discomfort) |
Matthew Liberatore | STL | 64 | 40 | -24 | Made Opening Day rotation; this projected RP IP total could keep going down |
Shane Smith | CHW | 51 | 25 | -26 | Frontrunner for SP5 but could still get some RP innings |
Dane Dunning | TEX | 60 | 18 | -42 | Reportedly on outright waivers after rough Spring |
The reliever landscape has faced some of the biggest changes in recent years as many teams have gone away from anointing a single guy to be their closer, instead embracing committees where they trust a number of relievers to close the game out in the 9th. The committee strategy often includes putting their best guy in a fireman role meaning he could come in for any sticky situation from about the 6th inning on. This is undoubtedly a smart way to run a bullpen from a “real life” standpoint, but it can be rough on us fantasy folks where Saves remain a prominent category.
First Base Overview
It was a weak year overall for first basemen in 2024. We now head into the 2025 season with a clean slate and fresh optimism that this year’s crop will return more value, and perhaps include a number of young breakouts and veteran rebounds. There isn’t as much category selection needed this year, as just two hitters on this list are projected to earn positive value from stolen bases. So that means we’re back to rostering mashers who need to make a good dent in your home run total goal as you fill out your team.
Today’s Discussion
It’s the final rankings update for the 2025 season! Given the rash of injuries over the last week, I’m almost afraid to set these in stone, knowing there are still a couple of more days until the stateside Opening Day.
This week, the man whose face adorns the top of this post, Vinnie Pasquantino, left Saturday’s game with a hamstring strain. As I type this, there hasn’t been an update on his condition and how severe the strain is considered. I felt obligated to drop him in the rankings, but it’s impossible to know where he should ultimately be ranked without an idea of how much time he might miss, if any. At least he doesn’t rely on the running game to drive his fantasy value, so we shouldn’t expect the injury to affect his performance when he returns.
The other two rankings changes I made were more about a better understanding of the new Rays home park, rather than any underlying change in expected skills or playing time for the hitters upgraded. The Rays are playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a minor league ballpark with dimensions that mimic Yankee Stadium. The park switch should be a boon for left-handers, who go from a park with an 88 left-handed home run factor to a 119. That’s a massive bump! Letting that really sink in motivated me to upgrade two left-handed Rays on these rankings, as I’m not sure whether the projections are accounting for the park factor changes.
Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1600 NFBC Auction Championship team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool. You can see the live draft board here.