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Justin Mason’s NFBC Main Event Livestream

Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1800 NFBC Main Event team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool.

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Evaluating Last Minute MLB Roster Adds

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American League

Angels

• Jack Kochanowicz made the Angels rotation, and the only place he’s rosterable right now is probably in AL-only leagues. There will be times he’ll be streamable, but for now, he’s a poor man’s Marcus Stroman. Both create a decent number of ground balls but can’t strike anyone out. At least Stroman had a 6.6 K/9 last season, while Kochanowicz’s was half that (3.4 K/9). Read the rest of this entry »


Recent Waiver Wire Additions

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I examined why the following players were added in 30 or more NFBC Online Championships. I picked this format because some leagues were drafted in January. Most of the players are in order of most leagues added, except when I grouped some guys. The entire list is at the article’s end.

Landon Knack, Jon Berti, Alex Vesia, and Enrique Hernández

These four were added because their stats from the two games in Japan will count for the first week. Read the rest of this entry »


Position Player Playing Time Changes: March 26, 2025

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Here are the most impactful changes to position player playing time projections since March 21st, headlined by some big-name prospects making Opening Day rosters.

Position Player Projected PA Changes, 3/21 to 3/25
Player Positions Team Old PA New PA PA Change Reason
Max Muncy 3B, 2B, SS ATH 56 322 266 Made Opening Day roster and could stave off Gelof for more PT when he’s back
Cam Smith RF, 3B HOU 182 434 252 Likelier and likelier to be on the Opening Day roster Officially made it shortly after Jon turned this piece in!
Alan Roden CF, LF, RF, DH TOR 203 427 224 Earned Opening Day spot, will have starting job at least until Varsho is back
Rowdy Tellez DH,1B SEA 147 350 203 Made Opening Day roster as strong-side platoon DH
Yuli Gurriel 1B SDP 14 182 168 Made Opening Day roster, should get some DH PA too
Kristian Campbell 2B, DH BOS 350 518 168 Made Opening Day roster and will be a regular as long as he deserves it
Brandon Lockridge LF, CF SDP 42 189 147 Made Opening Day roster; will platoon with Heyward in LF
Cooper Hummel RF HOU 14 140 126 Not a sure thing but likelier to be on Opening Day roster than he has been
Isaac Collins 2B MIL 7 119 112 All but guaranteed of Opening Day spot now, could spell Turang against LHP
Ji Hwan Bae 2B, CF PIT 42 147 105 Should have Opening Day spot as PR/defense/some starts against righties
Nick Martini LF, DH, RF COL 42 133 91 Contract selected, should play vs RHP to start but unsure of where PT will come from when Estrada is healthy
Manuel Margot CF, LF DET 56 147 91 Starting CF with Meadows out?
J.C. Escarra C, DH NYY 91 182 91 Won backup catcher job
Gavin Sheets DH, 1B, LF, RF SDP 238 322 84 Officially on Opening Day roster; will mostly DH against RHP
Bryan Ramos DH, 3B CHW 133 217 84 Injuries open up an Opening Day spot
Jordan Beck LF, RF, DH, CF COL 420 504 84 Jones trade, Veen demotion opens up even more time
Jake Bauers 1B MIL 28 105 77 Will be on Opening Day roster barring late addition as PH/occasional Hoskins sub
Jose Iglesias 2B, DH, 3B, SS SDP 266 336 70 Earned Opening Day spot and should start against LHP
Mark Canha 1B, LF, RF, DH KCR 154 224 70 Late acquisition from MIL, will play against LHP
Brendan Rodgers 2B HOU 196 266 70 Not a guarantee to be on roster but could split 2B with Dubón
Sean Bouchard LF, DH, RF COL 175 245 70 Jones trade, Veen demotion opens up more PT
Gabriel Arias 2B, 1B, SS, 3B CLE 266 336 70 Freeman trade makes him the clear 2B until Brito is ready
Zac Veen LF, RF, CF COL 224 294 70 Sent down, but should be up sooner than expected coming off strong Spring, Jones trade
Chas McCormick LF, RF, CF HOU 413 343 -70 Smith emergence makes PT harder to come by
Jacob Melton CF HOU 126 56 -70 With Cam Smith exploding, when will he be a factor?
Alex Jackson C NYY 98 21 -77 Lost backup catcher job to Escarra
Joey Loperfido LF, CF, 1B, RF TOR 140 63 -77 Will start season in minors, and Roden also being a lefty makes finding PT tough
Connor Joe LF, DH, 1B, RF SDP 217 133 -84 Nice Spring but having an option means he’ll start in AAA
Jerar Encarnacion DH, 1B, LF, RF SFG 308 224 -84 Broken finger requiring surgery
Luis Campusano C, DH SDP 287 203 -84 Lost backup catcher job to Maldonado
Johnathan Rodriguez LF, DH, RF CLE 119 28 -91 Jones trade makes future OF PT hard to come by
Orelvis Martinez DH, 3B, 2B TOR 245 154 -91 Starting season in minors and if Roden pops, Santander DHes more
Thairo Estrada 2B COL 518 420 -98 Broken wrist, out 4-8 weeks
Luis Guillorme 2B, 3B, SS HOU 126 28 -98 Won’t make team but could stick around as depth
DJ Stewart RF, LF, 1B PIT 119 21 -98 Won’t make team but could stick around as depth
Tirso Ornelas LF, DH, RF SDP 301 203 -98 Optioned to minors but should still factor in at some point
Parker Meadows CF DET 497 392 -105 60-day IL with nerve issue
Jon Singleton DH, 1B HOU 112 0 -112 Released after not making roster
Will Brennan RF, CF, LF CLE 273 154 -119 Sent down after Jones trade
Nelson Velazquez RF, DH, LF KCR 133 7 -126 Outrighted off 40-man
Masataka Yoshida LF, DH BOS 259 133 -126 With Campbell on the roster, where will he find PA even if he can play OF?
Brandon Drury 2B, 3B, DH, 1B CHW 336 203 -133 Great spring ruined by fractured thumb
Eguy Rosario RF, 3B, SS, LF, DH, 2B SDP 238 35 -203 Won’t make team; out of options
Zack Gelof 2B ATH 630 364 -266 Hamate injuries don’t cost too much time but they do cost power; might Muncy keep his job when Gelof is back?

Jordan Rosenblum’s 2025 Bold Predictions

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This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything.  I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.

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Pitcher Playing Time Changes: March 24, 2025

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Below are all of the changes in projected playing time (games started for starters, innings pitched for relievers) for pitchers since our last update on March 19. We learned quite a lot in the last five days, so this is our most robust update yet!

SP Projected GS Changes, 3/19 to 3/24
Pitcher Team Old GS New GS GS Change Reason
Matthew Liberatore STL 3 18 15 Won SP5 job over Matz
Logan Allen CLE 6 19 13 Won SP5 job over McKenzie
Shane Smith CHW 6 16 10 Likely SP5 over Bryse Wilson
AJ Smith-Shawver ATL 13 19 6 Won rotation spot; Anderson traded away
Bryce Elder ATL 5 10 5 Optioned to minors but Anderson trade opens starts up down the line
Hayden Wesneski HOU 13 18 5 Stronger hold on SP5 with Luis Garcia setback
Griffin Canning NYM 13 16 3 Tighter hold on rotation spot with excellent camp
Joey Estes ATH 16 19 3 Won SP5 over Spence, others
Paul Blackburn NYM 11 8 -3 Rough camp; will start in bullpen
Kyle Harrison SFG 16 13 -3 Officially lost SP5 to either Birdsong or Roupp
Andrew Abbott CIN 24 21 -3 Not injured, but starting on IL as he continues to build up
Joey Cantillo CLE 16 13 -3 Probably starting out in minors to stay stretched out
Shinnosuke Ogasawara WSN 10 6 -4 Really bad Spring, starting in AAA
Jared Jones PIT 28 24 -4 Continued uncertainty as we await word on elbow
Luis L. Ortiz CLE 23 19 -4 Kept rotation spot but a rough camp means he has a lot to prove
Ian Anderson LAA 15 10 -5 Likely to spend most of his time as an Angel in the bullpen
Kenta Maeda DET 8 3 -5 Will start in bullpen; hard to see many starts with Jobe, Mize, eventually Cobb, maybe Montero
Triston McKenzie CLE 18 13 -5 Starting out in bullpen; velocity is coming back but command hasn’t
Mitch Spence ATH 19 13 -6 Opening the year in the bullpen
Caden Dana LAA 13 6 -7 Really bad Spring + Ian Anderson addition means he might need more time than thought to keep developing
Ryan Weathers MIA 26 19 -7 Starting season on IL (forearm strain)
Luis Garcia HOU 18 11 -7 Setback in Tommy John recovery
Cade Povich BAL 18 8 -10 Won SP5, but that’s more than canceled out by Gibson addition
Quinn Mathews STL 16 6 -10 Six-man rotation, good McGreevy Spring means he’ll be eighth on the depth chart for a bit
Drew Thorpe CHW 15 0 -15 Tommy John surgery, see you in 2026 🙁

 

RP Projected IP Changes, 3/19 to 3/24
Pitcher Team Old IP New IP IP Change Reason
Matt Bowman BAL 15 52 37 Contract selected; frontrunner for last bullpen spot
Patrick Murphy TEX 24 60 36 Dunning on outright waivers, Murphy can provide long relief
Ryan Johnson LAA 10 44 34 Impressive camp could get him on the roster sooner than later
Hunter Stratton PIT 15 46 31 Contract selected, should factor in soon if not Opening Day
Ian Anderson LAA 13 42 29 Likely to spend most of his time as an Angel in the bullpen
Brad Keller CHC 26 54 28 Not official yet, but should be last reliever to make bullpen
Mitch Spence ATH 10 38 28 Starting out in the bullpen after entering camp as SP5
Jackson Rutledge WSN 23 50 27 Converting to relief full-time, likely to make Opening Day roster
Zack Kelly BOS 26 50 24 Nice Spring Training showing makes him less of an up-and-down option and closer to a stalwart
Sean Newcomb BOS 14 36 22 Likely to be SP5, move to bullpen after 1-2 of Giolito, Bello, Crawford return
Joel Peguero SFG 14 34 20 Went from under-the-radar NRI to possible Opening Day reliever, or early call-up
Jonathan Hernández TBR 26 46 20 Six good Spring appearances have him on the verge of an Opening Day spot
Ryan Gusto HOU 18 36 18 Haven’t fully committed, but could be in Opening Day bullpen
Steven Matz STL 22 39 17 Will start out in bullpen, move to rotation April 16
Kevin Kelly TBR 41 57 16 Vasil trade, Faedo injury opens up PT
Alex Faedo TBR 57 41 -16 Opening on IL with shoulder discomfort
Sean Hjelle SFG 66 50 -16 Sent down after entering camp with a great shot at Opening Day bullpen, should be back soon though
Declan Cronin MIA 67 50 -17 Starting season on IL (hip discomfort)
AJ Smith-Shawver ATL 46 26 -20 Won last rotation spot, but could still get RP innings when Strider’s healthy
Zach Pop TOR 56 35 -21 Starting season on IL (elbow discomfort)
Matthew Liberatore STL 64 40 -24 Made Opening Day rotation; this projected RP IP total could keep going down
Shane Smith CHW 51 25 -26 Frontrunner for SP5 but could still get some RP innings
Dane Dunning TEX 60 18 -42 Reportedly on outright waivers after rough Spring

Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 24, 2025

Here is today’s chat transcript:

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Relief Pitcher 2025 Fantasy Rankings

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The reliever landscape has faced some of the biggest changes in recent years as many teams have gone away from anointing a single guy to be their closer, instead embracing committees where they trust a number of relievers to close the game out in the 9th. The committee strategy often includes putting their best guy in a fireman role meaning he could come in for any sticky situation from about the 6th inning on. This is undoubtedly a smart way to run a bullpen from a “real life” standpoint, but it can be rough on us fantasy folks where Saves remain a prominent category.

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First Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings

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First Base Overview

It was a weak year overall for first basemen in 2024. We now head into the 2025 season with a clean slate and fresh optimism that this year’s crop will return more value, and perhaps include a number of young breakouts and veteran rebounds. There isn’t as much category selection needed this year, as just two hitters on this list are projected to earn positive value from stolen bases. So that means we’re back to rostering mashers who need to make a good dent in your home run total goal as you fill out your team.

Today’s Discussion

It’s the final rankings update for the 2025 season! Given the rash of injuries over the last week, I’m almost afraid to set these in stone, knowing there are still a couple of more days until the stateside Opening Day.

This week, the man whose face adorns the top of this post, Vinnie Pasquantino, left Saturday’s game with a hamstring strain. As I type this, there hasn’t been an update on his condition and how severe the strain is considered. I felt obligated to drop him in the rankings, but it’s impossible to know where he should ultimately be ranked without an idea of how much time he might miss, if any. At least he doesn’t rely on the running game to drive his fantasy value, so we shouldn’t expect the injury to affect his performance when he returns.

The other two rankings changes I made were more about a better understanding of the new Rays home park, rather than any underlying change in expected skills or playing time for the hitters upgraded. The Rays are playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a minor league ballpark with dimensions that mimic Yankee Stadium. The park switch should be a boon for left-handers, who go from a park with an 88 left-handed home run factor to a 119. That’s a massive bump! Letting that really sink in motivated me to upgrade two left-handed Rays on these rankings, as I’m not sure whether the projections are accounting for the park factor changes.

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Justin Mason’s NFBC Auction Championship Livestream #2

Tonight, I will be drafting my second $1600 NFBC Auction Championship team. This is a 15-team, 5×5 Roto league with an overall prize pool. You can see the live draft board here

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