Archive for Featured

pVals are a topic of debate among pitch-level data masterminds. One side may consider them useless. Good pitches get hit and bad pitches get taken for strikes and pVals don’t explain any of that. On the other side, people like to know what actually happened. If a splitter left in the middle of the zone gets a called third strike when it probably should have been mashed for a home run, then pVals still credit the pitcher. The strikeout is what actually happened.

Keep in mind as you peruse this season’s best fastballs just that; pVals aren’t perfect. You’ll read about Chris Bassitt’s sinker and think, Chris Bassitt is a clear candidate for being drafted, but read on and you may back away from that stance. pVals help us understand what occurred, but take caution when using them to predict what will happen. Confused? Let’s just watch some GIFs.

Part one of this installment looked at four-seam fastballs and cutters. Part two will focus on sinkers and splitters.

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The LIVE from First Pitch Arizona episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Tristan Cockcroft & Derek Carty

Strategy Section

• Which is more important – the draft or in-season moves?
• Is it more important than ever to bank low-risk players in the early rounds of drafts?
• What makes a risky / consistent player?
  • Is Shohei Ohtani risky for 2024 as a hitter?
  • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • How should we determine what constitutes a consistent player, and how should we value consistency?
• Young players
  • Should we be cautious to roster young players with limited experience?
  • How should we value the playoff experience of young players?
• Stolen base landscape
  • How should we value SBs in 2024 drafts?
• Closers
  • Optimal strategy in retrospect for 2023
  • Prospective strategy heading into 2024
  • Should we be drafting middle relievers?

2024 First Round

• Who is a player that will be drafted in the first round of 2024 that is undervalued?
• Who is a player that will be drafted in the first round of 2024 that is overvalued?
• Who is a player that will not be drafted in the first round of 2024 that should be?

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11/7/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host: Paul Sporer
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host: Justin Mason
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host: Jason Collette
• @PitcherList – Surprise Guest: Nick Pollack
• @enosarris – Surprise Guest: Eno Sarris
• @mdthompFWFB – Surprise Guest: Matt Thompson
• @derekvanriper – Surprise Guest: Derek Van Riper

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay (now on my Google Drive, not sure what happened on the BHQ YouTube page)!

BIGGEST MIN/MAX SPREADS IN THE EARLY TOP 100

Hitters

• Mike Trout 83 ADP | 92 spots – 57 min to 149 max
• Triston Casas 98 | 89 – 48 to 137
• Spencer Steer 92 | 81 – 72 to 153
• Manny Machado 74 | 72 – 56 to 128
• Will Smith 97 | 58 – 68 to 126
• Nolan Jones 49 | 56 – 33 to 89
• Nolan Arenado 87 | 54 – 65 to 119

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Welcome back to what was recently named the #2 fantasy award show in the nation according to people and pets who live in my house. Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

We’ve already handed out our prestigious awards at catcher, first base, and second base, so let’s keep it moving around the horn. But first, since children need to be taken to the library, I’m afraid that you’re going to have to come up with your own dated Fifty Cent references – I simply have no time.

Ja-Ja-Ja G-Unit – It’s the Shorties!

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With Jacob deGrom and Walker Buehler coming back from their second Tommy John surgery (TJS), I wanted to go back and look at how pitchers performed after going under the knife a second time. While I had high hopes this study would find some useful adjustments, the results were mixed and probably point to the pitcher being more of the same. Read the rest of this entry »

• Here is the average age (per batter faced) for all the pitchers in the league. The age went up even with several high-profile rookies being promoted to the majors. I suspect even more prospects to be promoted to bring the average age down some.

American League

Astros

• Jake Meyers made some mid-season swing adjustments.

Meyers made some swing adjustments during the season, but still slashed just .227/.296/.382 in 341 plate appearances. His average exit velocity dropped to 86 mph — in the fifth percentile among major-league hitters — and he didn’t make enough contact to allow his speed to shine.

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2022 was the worst year I have ever had as a fantasy player. I played in 16 leagues and did not cash in a single one. The hard part is that I didn’t  even know what went wrong. I had teams I really liked coming out of the draft and some that were doing very well throughout the season. I could have easily brushed it off as a bad season or beaten myself up over it. However, I worked my butt off to get better. 

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10/30/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

ON THE RISE HITTER DUOS

• Parker Meadows/Jace Jung
• Brett Baty/Mark Vientos
• Garrett Mitchell/Joey Wiemer
• Alek Thomas/Geraldo Perdomo
• Miguel Vargas/Michael Busch

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There are all kinds of ways to measure the effectiveness of a pitch. Pitch Values (pVals) or “Pitch Type Linear Weights” give us a sense of, from the glossary, “…the changes in average run expectancy from one count to another”.

while the changes in run expectancy between an 0-0 count and a 0-1 or 1-0 count are obviously very small, when added up over the course of the season, you can get an idea of which pitch a hitter was best against.

pVals are not predictive and they don’t explain the true talent or raw characteristics of an individual pitch the same way Stuff+ or other pitch models can, but it does tell us what actually happened. Now, imagine that! You can dig into the specifics of pVals on the glossary page but for now, let’s celebrate this season’s greatest pVals.

Part one will look at four-seam fastballs and cutters. Part two (coming soon) will focus on sinkers and splitters.

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Attention! Attention! All seat fillers need to get up and please move outside to the concourse. Immediately. We’ve made it through the Catchies and the Firsties but we’re about to get going again and we just can’t have any of you normies accidentally getting on camera and making everyone at home feel sad.

Thank you for your service and please collect your payment from the front – which may or may not be a swag bag filled with all of the Kylie Jenner lip glosses that were banned by the FDA because the test animals started sprouting extra noses she really wanted to donate for all of her loyal fans.

It’s the Secondies!

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