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The Early 2026 Starting Pitcher Market

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

As many of you know, the fantasy baseball season never stops for a dedicated contingent that not only plays through the fall and winter but sometimes even does their first draft for the following season during the current one! But I don’t need to explain the concept of “diehards” to y’all, you’re already here. Over at the NFBC there have been 70 Draft Champions drafts completed (15-team, 50-round Draft & Hold leagues), but I’m going to focus on a tighter recent sample of 11 drafts since Christmas since it will give us more recent player movement better accounted for in the data. You can find the ADP data here and use the calendar feature to chop it up as you see fit.

I wanted to get a better feel for the ebbs of flows of where starters are going so this will be a tour through the SP market in the top 300. I’m not explicitly outlining the biggest risers and fallers in this piece. You can track the movement in the SP market (and all positions) in Justin’s reports. I’m going to look at some overall volume counts and then look at them through the prism of some category thresholds.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1462 – Talking The Process ft. Jeff Zimmerman

1/11/26

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Notable Transactions/News/Rumors

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1461 – 2026 Catcher Preview Pt. 2

1/9/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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CATCHER PREVIEW Pt. 2

Tier 4

Tier 5

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Predictiveness of MLB Pipeline Executive Poll: Rookie of the Year


Rich Storry-Imagn Images

In my latest Mining the News, I referenced MLB.com’s Rookie of the Year Poll. MLB.com polled team executives to find who they think will win each league’s Rookie of the Year award. I figured it would be a prospect list for fantasy managers to become familiar with. The narrative would be that these inside sources would know the players who would be productive and play enough to win the award. Production and playing time are the two traits needed to be a solid fantasy option. Since this is the poll’s fourth year, I examined previous editions to determine how these executives performed.

The information in the polls is scarce, so all the small sample caveats apply. The results have been collected over the past three seasons (2023, 2024, 2025). In each one, a percentage of executive votes is included. The full list of previous players is at the end of the article.

To each player, I included our Fantasy Player Rater 12-team end-of-season dollar value. Then, I began grouping away. First, here is a plot of all the values.

Besides the four players polled at 50% or higher, the values seem to be fairly random. I grouped the values into four groups based on their polled percentage. Also, I combined the three low-polled groups.

Fantasy Production Based on Polled%
Polled% Avg EOS Fantasy Value % over $0 % over $5 Count
>= 50% $12 75% 75% 4
15% to 49% -$5 11% 22% 9
5% to 15% -$3 33% 50% 12
1% to 5% -$4 27% 45% 22
1% to 49% -$4 26% 42% 43

That top group (n=4) seems to be productive, with the rest of the values being a complete crap shoot. The final line is the most useful. There is a 25% chance of these players contributing more than $5 and a 40% chance of being positive.

With the historical results, here are this year’s lists.

Fantasy Production Based on Polled%

None of the players meet the 50% threshold, so no one is on the must-target list.

Fantasy managers should spend a few minutes on each of those players and track their results. Who knows which one will stand out? Nick Kurtz received just one vote last year and was a league winner.

MLB Pipeline Poll by MLB Executives
Name League Season % Polled EOS Value
Roman Anthoy AL 2025 19% -$4
Jackson Jobe AL 2025 19% -$5
Jasson Domínguez AL 2025 17% $3
Coby Mayo AL 2025 15% -$13
Kristian Campvell AL 2025 9% -$15
Jacob Wilson윌슨 AL 2025 9% $9
Jac Caglianone AL 2025 3% -$20
Nick Kurtz AL 2025 3% $20
Kumar Rocker AL 2025 3% -$9
Kyle Teel AL 2025 3% $3
Dylan Crews NL 2025 50% -$8
Matt Shaw NL 2025 19% -$2
Bubba Chandler NL 2025 10% UNK (issue with player rater)
Jordan Lawlar NL 2025 6% -$21
Dalton Rushing NL 2025 7% -$8
Thomas Saggese NL 2025 7% -$14
Evan Carter AL 2024 36% -$17
Jackson Holliday AL 2024 30% -$16
Junior Caminero AL 2024 15% -$15
Wyatt Langford AL 2024 11% $12
Heston Kjerstad AL 2024 2% -$18
Brooks Lee AL 2024 2% -$18
Curtis Mead AL 2024 2% -$21
Austin Wells AL 2024 2% $3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto NL 2024 51% $7
Jackson Chourio NL 2024 17% $19
Noelvi Marte NL 2024 9% -$15
Pete Crow-Armstrong NL 2024 6% $1
Jordan Lawlar NL 2024 4% DNP
Paul Skenes NL 2024 4% $25
Michael Busch NL 2024 2% $5
Kyle Harrison NL 2024 2% -$6
Jacob Hurtubise NL 2024 2% -$22
James Wood NL 2024 2% -$2
Gunnar Henderson AL 2023 73% $17
Hunter Brown AL 2023 9% -$4
Triston Casas AL 2023 9% $6
Anthony Volpe AL 2023 6% $2
Josh Jung AL 2023 3% $8
Corbin Carroll NL 2023 66% $32
Francisco Álvarez NL 2023 9% $7
Elly De La Cruz NL 2023 3% $5
Sal Frelick NL 2023 3% -$13
Matt Mervis NL 2023 3% -$21
Bobby Miller NL 2023 3% $11
Jared Shuster NL 2023 3% -$10
Ezequiel Tovar NL 2023 3% $8
Miguel Vargas NL 2023 3% -$16
Jordan Walker NL 2023 3% $2

Mining the News (1/9/26)


Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

MLB.com surveyed several front office personnel for rookie of the year candidates. I’d recommend going through the picks since these are likely to be solid options to be productive with an early promotion.

Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt (MLB No. 5) had an outstanding first full season of pro ball after being the No. 7 overall pick in the 2024 Draft, splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A and posting a combined .306/.421/.510 slash line with 17 homers and 23 steals. Some were surprised he didn’t get a late-season audition in St. Louis, but you have to figure his bat will work its way into that lineup sooner rather than later. He’s played three infield positions, which should help give the big league staff options for him to make the Opening Day roster.

American League

Guardians

• A reminder that Bo Naylor tweaked his swing towards the end of last season.

Manager Stephen Vogt has insisted the tweaks Naylor made to his swing started to bear fruit by September. That month, he posted a .290/.324/.548 slash line. Hedges, who signed a $4 million deal for the third straight winter, is in line to be the club’s fifth-highest-paid player.

Rangers

Jacob Latz will get stretched out as a starter.

GM Ross Fenstermaker said at the Winter Meetings that [Latz is] building up to be a starter, but potentially continue to be used in a swingman type role by the time Opening Day rolls around. I think he’ll be one of the more interesting players to watch in Spring Training as the staff figures out the best way to use him.

Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu will get a chance to face lefties to start the season.

“I truly believe that this year … and I probably said it before … with Willy and some of the lefties, we have to see if they can do it,” said Red Sox manager Alex Cora.

By “do it,” Cora means getting the job done against left-handed pitchers. Refsnyder was a security blanket of sorts for the Sox.

Though Romy Gonzalez has become almost as effective as a platoon lefty masher, he gets most of his reps in the infield. Refsnyder’s departure clearly leaves an opportunity in the outfield.

“It’s about that time, especially with Abreu,” said Cora. “And if he can hit lefties and hit for power and play defense the way he’s done the last few years, he can be the guy.”

“We need to have Wilyer figure out lefties. We’re going to push him to do that and I truly believe he can do that,” Cora told the Section 10 podcast earlier this offseason.

Twins

Eric Wagaman will be a short-side platoon bat.

There are a few things that likely drew the Twins to Wagaman, not the least of which is that he’d be minimum-salaried in the majors and still has minor-league options, meaning he can be stashed at Triple-A St. Paul as in-season depth if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

And within last year’s poor overall production, Wagaman hit .283/.321/.462 against left-handed pitching. It was a similar story in the minors, where he hit .328/.379/.541 off lefties in 2024. For a lineup that’s always long on lefty corner bats, the righty-swinging Wagaman could fit in a platoon role.

Wagaman is 6-foot-4 with below-average speed, so he’s limited defensively, but he does have experience playing all four corner spots. He could platoon at first base with Kody Clemens, pushing the weak-gloved Bell to DH, and he could be paired with Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach in the outfield.

White Sox

Sean Newcomb will get a shot to make the rotation.

To take that idea one step further, Newcomb will have the Spring Training chance to feature that same unofficial position as part of the White Sox rotation.

“He’s going to come in and compete for a starting job, a job in the rotation I should say, which we are really excited about,” said manager Will Venable during a Wednesday Zoom. “We know he had some success in both the starting role and the reliever role, so he is capable of doing both, but he’s going to be in that mix for a starting-rotation job, and we are excited to help support him.”

“I’ve always been a starter, starter mentality,” said Newcomb on the Zoom call. “Over the past few years up in the big leagues, I’ve done a lot out of the ‘pen, but even those outings I’ve had a lot of three-, four-plus innings outings. So, it’s kind of the same mentality for me, just be ready to attack a lineup once or twice, three times through if it gets to that point with five or six innings.”

National League

Cubs

Jordan Wicks is working on a curveball.

Giants

Tyler Mahle has been dealing with shoulder issues since 2021

Mahle missed three months with right shoulder fatigue last year, but he returned to make two starts in September and said he hasn’t felt this healthy since 2021, when he recorded a 3.75 ERA over a career-high 33 starts for the Reds.

“It was big to make those last two starts and show that I was healthy going into the offseason,” Mahle said during a Zoom call with reporters. “I took a few weeks off after the season and then started throwing again, and it’s felt amazing since. I honestly haven’t felt this good — knock on wood — since probably that 2021 season.”

… and is working on a new breaking ball.

Mahle has a four-pitch mix that includes a four-seam fastball and a splitter, though he said he’s working on developing a new breaking ball that will help him become even tougher on right-handed hitters.

“We’ve been working on that,” Mahle said. “It’s looking good. I definitely think I can pick up where I left off [from 2025].”


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1460 – 2026 Catcher Preview Pt. 1

1/8/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

CATCHER PREVIEW

Tier 1

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – January 7th, 2026

First chat of the year!!

It was a blast, thanks for coming out!

1:06

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, Happy New Year and thanks for coming out!!!

1:06

Greg: I have one of the best teams in my league that’s pretty even based on hitting and pitching quality keepers. 12 team points league. Who would you pick as my last three keepers: Samuel Basallo (9th round), Kevin McGonigle (25th), Zach Neto (3rd), Trey Yesavage (25th), Alex Bregman (25th).

1:06

Greg: That’s for a keep forever league – sorry meant to add that.

1:11

Paul Sporer: I feel like I wanna run the 3 round 25ers (presumably the other 2 would be 23rd/24th which is still good) buuutttt push come to shove I’d go Neto over Yesavage. Yes, he’s high priced, but he has 20/30 and 25/25 seasons the last 2 years at SS. So ya, Neto-Breg-McGonigle for me

1:14

Dave: Facing a few contract extensions in my NL only league.  Would you extend any of the following; H. Ramos, Vientos and I. Herrera?  Future playing time and position eligibility are concerns with each of them

1:21

Paul Sporer: Yes very valid concerns. Herrera can absolutely rake, but he’s DH-only and unlikely to even earn in-season C this year. — POST-CHAT ADD: Thanks to commenter TheBabbo for this info on Herrera getting time at C this year as I had missed it: “Cards are planning to use him as a catcher this season: https://www.mlb.com/news/ivan-herrera-could-reach-his-potential-in-2026 — I still might take a shot extending him in NL only though bc the bat is so good. How long are the extensions? Vientos is someone I like as a player but my fantasy brain keeps me at arms length distance. In other words, I understand his flaws so my fandom doesn’t cloud my judgment. I hooope he fixes his K issues, but I doubt he will. I think Ramos is SF fixture for the next year or two as long as he doesn’t melt w/the bat so he could be extendable, too.

Herrera – yes (if it’s not TOO many yrs)
Ramos – maybe, leaning yes
Vientos – no, but would redraft at a cheaper price bc I love the power, just not the plate skills

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Starting Pitcher ADP Market Report: 12/27/2025

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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Mining the News (1/5/26)


John Jones-Imagn Images

• At MLB.com, there was an article on each team’s breakout candidate. It’s a solid read for fantasy managers looking for upside. Here is the blurb about Jasson Domínguez working on his defense and right-handed swing.

YANKEES: OF Jasson Domínguez

“The Martian” could finally be ready to live up to the immense potential the Yankees have touted for years. Still just 22, the switch-hitting Domínguez lost critical development time to the pandemic and Tommy John surgery, spending most of the second half on the bench in 2025. He went to winter ball to focus on sharpening his defense in left field and his swing from the right side of the plate, which is his natural side. It would be no surprise if Domínguez’s touted blend of speed and strength all comes together in a big way. — Bryan Hoch

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Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 5, 2026

Here is today’s chat transcript:
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