With the Super Bowl behind us and pitchers and catchers already in camp, fantasy draft season is officially in full swing. That means it is time to update the Average Draft Position (ADP) data we use on FanGraphs.
FanGraphs pulls in ADP data from the NFBC and displays it in a few places on the site where it can be useful to our readers:
As of today, the first three will all show NFBC ADP for Online Championships. ADP shown on rankings articles will update when those rankings are next updated and this will be noted in the changelog on each piece.
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.You can read all the Market Reports here.Read the rest of this entry »
Free agent right-hander Griffin Canning threw for teams at UCLA on Friday. Last June, a ruptured left Achilles ended what was shaping up as a solid season (3.77 ERA, 16 starts). He is up to 93 mph.
The rotation is expected to drop back down to five starters after the Guardians rode a six-man staff to the AL Central title in 2025. Someone will be the odd man out. Parker Messick made a strong impression down the stretch last year, and he’ll certainly factor in at some point. But he has Minor League options remaining and could open the season with Columbus. Cantillo has relief experience, though he was stellar over five starts in September (1.55 ERA in 29 innings). He’s out of options.
Of Cecconi, Cantillo, Allen, and Messick, Cantillo is the only one out of options. As long as he’s healthy, he should make the rotation while one of the other three will be relegated to AAA or the bullpen.
Rays fans have been waiting two years to see Shane McClanahan on a big-league mound. The electric lefty missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, then lost another season to a nerve issue in his triceps. McClanahan is on track to be ready for the 2026 campaign, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, though the southpaw will likely have his workload capped in some fashion.
Red Sox
• Even after trading for Caleb Durbin, the team doesn’t know who will play second or third base.
Cora says Sox won’t commit yet to how they’ll handle 2B and 3B. They’ll figure out how they want to use Mayer, Durbin, and Kiner-Falefa (who offers SS protection for Story). “We’ve got enough.” Cora would like to have a stable 2B/SS combo.
The White Sox still like Benintendi’s left-handed power bat, but Getz admitted Benintendi’s legs leading to him not being able to cover ground he once did has held him back. Benintendi feels good physically, per Getz, but will get at-bats at designated hitter.
The Benintendi at-bats will cut into the playing time of Edgar Quero and Lenyn Sosa at DH. If anyone on the White Sox isn’t playing every game, they won’t be fantasy relevant.
The same goes for Vasil, although Getz said the right-hander will be working toward a multi-inning role.
“We’re still kind of open-minded on that,” said Getz of Vasil. “It is nice now that the Rule 5 handcuffs are off, so that allows us to be perhaps a little bit more creative with him.”
The Yanks can’t wait to get those first two frontline pitchers back in the fold soon, but there will be no rush, according to manager Aaron Boone. The club’s rotation is in a pretty good spot as is.
“We’re talking about probably [Max] Fried, [Cam] Schlittler, [Will] Warren, [Ryan] Weathers and [Luis] Gil to start the season in the rotation,” Boone said Sunday on MLB Network Radio. “And you always have [Ryan] Yarbrough and [Paul] Blackburn there that can fill that role very capably.”
Where is Hurston Waldrep? The talented young hurler has the ability to be one of the team’s top starters. But Holmes, Bryce Elder and Joey Wentz are out of options. So, to protect the club’s depth, they would likely begin the season in the Majors, as long as they aren’t traded before Opening Day.
And Saggese, who has been a utility infielder, could get some reps in the outfield this spring, especially since Nootbaar won’t be ready on Opening Day.
The Phillies do not expect Zack Wheeler to be ready by Opening Day.
It’s not a huge surprise as the ace continues his rehab from his Sept. 23 thoracic outlet decompression surgery. Still, manager Rob Thomson essentially confirmed as much for the first time on Monday afternoon.
“He’s doing well; I don’t think he’ll be ready for Opening Day,” Thomson said. “But it’s not going to be too far behind that.”
Now that the cleanup spot is figured out, Francona is trying to determine who might bat second behind TJ Friedl and ahead of De La Cruz.
“To me, that’s the biggest [question], because we want to have somebody break up Elly and TJ, so it needs to be somebody that bats right-handed. My first thought was [Noelvi] Marte, but he struggled so bad against lefties. We’ve got to figure some things out. We haven’t played a game. Those are things I think about.”
The ideas flowed when he described bad habits that crept into his motion, and the process of fixing things this offseason started with T.J. Galenti, a Tampa, Fla.,-based data scientist, certified strength and conditioning expert and baseball performance coach.
“I was a little bit more cross-body — I was pulling off everything,” Dollander said. “We figured out that I have a ton of external rotation in my hips, and that’s usually for guys that are more linear toward the plate. So I went to figure out what works. There were a bunch of different things we tried, with leg kicks, with setups, with thought processes. I think we found something that works.
“My fastball is in the zone more. My slider is in the zone more. I’m getting the ‘vert’ (induced vertical break) back on my fastball.”
Every year we see throngs of late round arms put up huge fantasy seasons. Injury returners, rising rookies, and out of nowhere gems are just some of the paths we see pitchers take from a post-300 ADP into the top 50 SPs. Last year saw Ranger Suárez, Matthew Boyd, Zach Littell, Ryne Nelson, and Shane Smith deliver a ton of fantasy value from outside the Top 300, among many more who had periods of viability that could’ve been curated into some better numbers than their final season line.
Let’s build a 15-team roto rotation comprised entirely of post-300 picks with seven starters and two relievers. We’re going to look for an ace, some strong frontliners, a few team streamers, a swingman lottery ticket, and then our closers. I’m not just going to take all the 300-310 ADP guys, either. For one, it’s cheap and doesn’t really explore the pool if I stay entirely at the top end, and two, these guys could easily move into the top 300 by peak draft season in March. I’m using NFBC ADP Draft Champions data from January 19th-February 9th, a 20-draft slice.
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Ace (#1)
Finding a bankable ace this late in the draft is remarkably difficult, so we’re looking for ace material. In this case, I’m looking for a guy who can put up 130+ IP of good ratios (let’s say sub-4.00 ERA/sub-1.20 WHIP), strikeout upside (~22-24%), and some Win potential (definitely not a prerequisite). Only 29 pitchers reached the ratio thresholds in 130 IP last year, though most of the guys in our ADP threshold were on the lower end of the K% band. Shane Smith’s 24% mark was the best of the post-300 group meeting these ratios.
Pirates: Konnor Griffin, SS (MLB No. 1)
Is this one more wish list than realistic possibility? We shall see. Griffin had an otherworldly first full season of pro ball, reaching Double-A at age 19. He’s played just 21 games above A ball in his career, so it’s understandable that the Pirates’ brass might hedge a little bit when it comes to handing Griffin the shortstop job in Pittsburgh. But sometimes a player comes along to defy expectations and push his way up ahead of schedule. If Griffin continues to do what he did last year all spring, can the Pirates, who feel they’re putting together a playoff-caliber team, afford not to have Griffin on board from Day 1?
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.You can read all the Market Reports here.
• MLBTradeRumors posted an article on the players most likely to start the season on the 60-day IL. Here are their notes on the four Yankees to make the list.
Schmidt is the only lock of this group. He required UCL surgery in July of last year and should miss the first half of the 2026 season. Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in March of last year. His target is expected to be late May/early June, so he has a decent chance to hit the 60-day. However, given his importance to the club, the Yankees probably won’t put him there until it’s certain he won’t be back by the middle of May.
Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He’s expected to be back with the big league club in late April or early May, so he would only hit the 60-day IL if his timeline is pushed. Volpe required shoulder surgery in October. He’s not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline beyond that doesn’t seem concrete.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hinted strongly on Seattle Sports’ Mariners Hot Stove Show this weekend that another move could yet be in the offing, telling host Shannon Drayer:
“There’s one more move that’s in us, that we want to make, and we’ve been grinding hard for the last handful of days to see if we can bring it through, and hopefully we do. … Our lineup took a huge step forward last year. Obviously we’ll be short a couple of bats that were there with us in Toronto to finish the season, but we get a full year of Josh Naylor. We get the upswing of our players as they get more exposure, especially Cole Young, who I think is going to break out for us this year. And I do hope there’s one more player coming along for the ride that might not be in a Mariners uniform just yet.”
That Dipoto quote is from before the Brendan Donovan trade, so that is likely the “one more move” he was referencing.
Emerson, who’s just 20 years old but climbed three Minor League affiliates last year, has been working out at second base, third base and shortstop this offseason.
“The roster has changed,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora recently told reporters. “Willson [Contreras] is going to play every day [at first base]. Romy is going to play second, but we’ll probably expand his role defensively. We’ll get him back to playing the outfield a little bit. We’ve got to get him at-bats. If you look at all of the metrics — all of the good numbers — he hit the ball hard. He was up there with the big boys. He keeps getting better, which is the most important thing.”
Gonzalez was indeed impressive in what was a breakout season. Not only did the 29-year-old infielder slash .305/.343/.483 with a 123 wRC+ over 341 plate appearances, he finished in the 99th percentile for hard-hit%, the 79th percentile for barrel%, and the 95th percentile for average exit velocity.
One concern going forward is the splits: Gonzalez logged a 162 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers and a 95 wRC+ versus same-sided pitchers. Rather than a regular, he might best be utilized as a multi-positional lefty-killer. Based on Cora’s comments, as well as his slightly below average defensive metrics, that seems the most likely scenario.
While Gonzalez crushes lefties (career 137 wRC+), he’s acceptable (95 wRC+) against righties.
One of those things has been fastball command and using the pitch more after continually increasing his breaking-ball usage in recent years. Lugo spins the ball as well as anyone, and his manipulation of pitches has made him one of the most unique pitchers in the league. But he thinks all those breaking balls have allowed hitters to not worry about his fastball as much. Lugo threw fastballs 49.8 percent of the time in 2025, his lowest fastball usage since 2018 (48.9 percent) when he was mainly a reliever with the Mets.
“I think over the past couple of years, all the breaking balls that I like to throw, it kind of gave me a reality check — we’ve got to use your fastball,” Lugo said. “We’ve got to command the fastball. Get up when I need to. So that’s been my focus.”
Acuña came over from the Mets in the Robert deal. He’s a .248/.299/.341 hitter in 233 MLB plate appearances but never had consistent playing time in New York. Acuña has primarily been a middle infielder in his career, but he’s also playing a good amount of center field in the Venezuelan Winter League. He has plus-plus speed that could be an asset in the outfield. Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that Acuña is likely to get an opportunity to step directly into Robert’s role as Chicago’s primary center fielder.
“To get two arms like that that can help our Major League club this year, it just made a lot of sense and that’s why we went ahead and made the deal,” said Getz during a Sunday evening Zoom following this weekend’s SoxFest Live activities. “When it comes to David Sandlin, he’s a guy we believe has mid-rotation if not better type arsenal and stuff.
“He’s worked his way up to the upper Minors and he’s going to come into Spring Training and compete for a spot. Most importantly, he’s got a chance to really impact our starting rotation this year.”
Snell, for example, made just two starts last season before left shoulder inflammation forced him to the IL. He did not pitch again until August and has since admitted he was not 100 percent in the World Series. It’s plausible the Dodgers are especially careful with his workload to open the spring.
Betts has lost about 2 mph on his swing since Statcast began tracking bat speed in 2023, from 71.3 mph to 69 mph in ’25. Even at its highest, his bat speed only ranked in the 38th percentile among qualified players in ’23, a season in which he led all position players with 8.6 bWAR and finished second in NL MVP voting. He’s capable of being an elite hitter without elite bat speed, but other factors — like a career-low 35.8% hard-hit rate — could have compounded his issues at the plate in ’25.
Betts’ early-season illness could have contributed to those metrics, so coming into the new season in a healthy condition could feasibly go a long way toward a bounceback year. Another factor that should help him is that he should not need to allocate as much of his offseason work to his defense.
The good news for Ryan is that he appears to have retained his velocity on the other side of elbow surgery; in December, he told Dodgers Nation that he was sitting in the 98-100 mph range during his most recent live sessions. Ryan spent last season strengthening his shoulder, and thinks his fastball is in a “really, really good” spot.
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Ryan isn’t done, either. He teased that he’s added a seventh pitch to his arsenal, another “strikeout option” that he can turn to when needed. Speculatively, because of his spin profile, that could be a sweeper, something to throw off the plate and away to righties.
Last time Ryan threw in the majors (2024), his fastball averaged 96 mph. He averaged 96 mph to 97 mph in two AAA stops. A near 3 mph bump in velocity, if true, would be huge.
Rushing also said his offseason work was built around making his swing his swing, not a version that depends on constant reps. “That was a big focus this offseason,” he explained, “just understanding that if you can kind of build your swing as your swing and you know what swing’s going to play, you don’t have to really worry that you’re going to be at the disadvantage not seeing pitches in three to four days.”
[Ryan] Walker tells Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that he’s hoping to win the job, though it seems like it’ll be an open competition in Spring Training. “As we sit here today, I think we’re hoping that Ryan Walker can get back to his 2024 form. But without discussing it with Tony in depth, I guess the way that I would see it now is that we’ll see who steps up,” Posey told reporters (including Slusser). “We’re not coming into this season necessarily with one guy that we say, ‘You are going to be the closer.’ There’s a chance that somebody takes the reins and does slot in to that closer role as we get into the season, but right now I wouldn’t say that there’s one person that we’re targeting for the ninth inning.”
Tatis also thinks he pinpointed his issues from last year that could spark a step forward.
“Mechanical [issues], more than anything else. But it’s actually more about trusting the process,” Tatis said. “I definitely feel like that’s behind us now though. This year is going to be really special.”
Stammen and Preller both stated that Gavin Sheets, who was a pleasant surprise in 2025 with a .746 OPS and 19 home runs, is the early favorite to land the first-base job. Preller, however, alluded to possibly finding a right-handed bat that could complement the left-hander against tougher lefty pitchers.
