Lineup Analysis (9/8/23)
American League
Angels
• Since being recalled, Kyren Paris has started in six of seven games.
• Mike Moustakas (vs RHP) and Eduardo Escobar (vs LHP) are in a third-base platoon. Read the rest of this entry »
Archive for Featured
The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1214 – More Call-Ups and Week 25 2-Start SPs
by Paul Sporer
September 8, 2023
9/8/23
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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- @sporer – Host
- @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
PATREON
- Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
- Watch the video feed replay on YouTube
INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS
- Jordan Lawlar called up
- Evan Carter called up
- Eguy Rosario called up
- Sandy Alcantara to IL (flexor strain)
- Jorge Soler to IL (oblique)
- When did Jurickson Profar go back to SD?
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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Beat the Shift Podcast – Last Weeks Episode
by Ariel Cohen
September 8, 2023
The Last Weeks episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Strategy Section
- Last Weeks Strategy
- Gaining in categories vs. Defending in categories
- Marginal categories
- Ratio categories strategy
- Number of starters vs. number of relievers
- Balancing with quantity stats
- Chasing wins
- FAAB Bidding
- Game 163
Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download
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Roto Riteup: September 8, 2023
by Justin Mason
September 8, 2023
The TARP MONSTER strikes again!
That was some wild wind but we got it covered before the rain.
🎥: Someone in the press box https://t.co/iX7HgnTrBX pic.twitter.com/aebZ4uSccG
— Trey Wilson (@treywilson757) September 8, 2023
Five Players on a wOBA Tear
by Lucas Kelly
September 8, 2023
The final month of fantasy baseball, for those contending, should be about accumulation in small samples. If you need stats now, you have to go and find them. Yes, I’m talking about hot streaks. Many of you don’t believe in them and that’s fine. Some of you have tried to ride hot streaks in the past and have been burned. But, when you and the person holding down first place are neck and neck in a few offensive category races, you may have no choice but to continue accumulating by changing out your roster spots or at least filling spots when your main guys get an off day. Here are five players who may be available and are on wOBA hot streaks:
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Jordan Walker, STL | RosterResource
Walker has been the DH or RF in the Cardinals’ last six games. He has gone 16 for 30 in his last eight games, creating an insane .533/.545/1.033 slash line for himself. Yes, Walker has been incredibly streaky this season, but he’s 21 years old and the Cardinals may just keep rolling him out in RF despite a -17.9 Def mark on the season. A projected 0% chance of making the playoffs makes the Cardinals even more likely to keep Walker in the lineup. Walker is only rostered in 33.5% of ESPN leagues.
Davis Schneider, TOR | RosterResource
The 24-year-old rookie has only played in 19 games, but he has a .381/.500/.810 slash line with six home runs and a stolen base. Beware! His BABIP is .500 and the only time he ever hit above .300 was in 2019 rookie ball. Even more of a warning sign is his 26.9% K%. Need yet another statistic to showcase how flukey this is? Look no further than the difference between his .381 batting average and his .273 statcast expected batting average. The only question is how long will this streak continue? I would pick him up if he’s available and sit him the day after he puts up a oh’fer.
Bo Naylor, CLE | RosterResource
Naylor has hit eighth and started as the Guardians’ catcher in three of his last four starts. He hit in the nine spot in the other start. Naylor does get consistent days off as a catcher, but he’s playing well above his average currently from a wOBA perspective. In his last eight games, he has gone seven for 21 with a slash line of .333/.444/.857 and two stolen bases.
Tyler Stephenson, CIN| RosterResource
Stephenson is riding a five-game hit streak that has his slash line sitting at .533/.588/.867. That is far better than his season-long slash line of .256/.335/.388, but when you’re hot, you’re hot. He has dipped above the average line once before this season:
Stephenson has mostly been batting in the seventh spot in a potent Reds lineup, but he gets regular days off being a catcher. If you have catcher spots to fill in your lineup, consider adding Stephenson while he’s mashing. Just pay close attention to pick up on when he starts cooling off.
Mitch Garver, TEX | RosterResource
What’s up with all these catchers boosting in wOBA in the last two weeks? Garver joins the list and is doing a lot of it from the DH spot. Beware, on September 6th (last night as of this writing), Garver went 0-4. Does that indicate the hot streak is over? Who knows? Prior to last night’s oh’fer, the 32-year-old righty had gone 14 for 40 making a .350/.480/.875 slash line and recording seven home runs. Despite injury issues, Garver has put together a strong season in only 66 games, showing a season-long line of .283/.375/.543 and posting 16 home runs, his highest mark since 2019 when he put up 31. Garver could be a really nice boost to your totals if you pick and choose the matchups accordingly. His batting average against lefties (.340) is significantly higher than against righties (.265), yet he has hit all 16 of his 2023 home runs against lefties.
Mining the News (9/8/23)
• Shōta Imanaga will likely be posted this offseason.
Sources: LHP Shōta Imanaga will be posted to @MLB teams this offseason by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars.
Imanaga, who won gold at @WBCBaseball, has a career-best 8.21 SO/W ratio in 133 1/3 IP this year.
Imanaga joins Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the top NPB stars available.@MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) September 6, 2023
Starting Pitcher Chart – September 8th
by Paul Sporer
September 8, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Be careful. A lot of names who did some good things throughout the summer are now very inconsistent which isn’t what you want in crunch time. We’ll have to take some risks with some of them, but the choices won’t be easy.
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Starting Pitcher Chart – September 7th
by Paul Sporer
September 7, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
—
Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 6th, 2023
by Paul Sporer
September 6, 2023
Transcript is available now!
| 1:01 |
: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out! |
| 1:01 |
: How would you rank Ty Rogers, Alzolay, and Estevez down the stretch in a S+H league |
| 1:01 |
: Alzo, Ty Rog, and Estevez |
| 1:02 |
: Picked him up in a 12 team NL only. Should I get excited now that he’s going to get some consistent run? Looked good against the Braves. Him or Pepiot ROS? |
| 1:03 |
: I got excited when I picked up Pepiot a couple wks but I also picked up Sheehan this weekend bc it looked like Pep was up in the air. Now both are penciled into the rotation. I lean Pep between the 2, but they’re both worthy, especially if you’re a wins chaser like me right now |
| 1:03 |
: Is Jasson Dominguez going to be a solid keeper after this season? His tools are out of this world (see what I did there?) but he’s only 20 and his hit tool isn’t as strong as his power/run. Will he hit for enough average to be a viable keeper? |
Big Kid Adds (Week 24)
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with an even larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues. Read the rest of this entry »