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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 27th, 2025

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Board tonight, comments in the AM!

  • Fried & Framber get great matchups to flourish with and Framber in particular needs it!
  • Rasmussen has hit 6 IP in ea. of his L3 which is great and hopefully he can be a consistent 5+ down the stretch
  • Lauer has quietly had SUCH a fantastic season
  • Lodolo and Mize both have remarkably tough matchups in tough venues, I regret the 3-x on them and switched it to 2-x (I didn’t remake the board, but consider them both behind Priester, who also has a tough matchup).
  • The 1-x group is really interesting, but there’s a lot of uncertainty
    • McLean is a rookie v. PHI
    • Darvish just hasn’t pitched much this yr so he’s still a little scary start-to-start (Gems in 2 of L3, though)
    • Bergert is an intriguing young arm getting the upstart White Sox, who I don’t blindly start against anymore
    • BAL still scares me enough to stop short of 3-x on Bello, but I did jump to 2-x as he’s been mostly great of late
    • And then Shohei is just such a low bet to get 5 IP

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Bleg: What Would Be Your Preferred Lineup Article?

Every week, I write an article looking over lineups before the weekend FAAB and waiver wire adds. While I find it useful to go through each line and take notes on each team, I wondered how helpful they are to readers. I examine each team, find changes, and note them. I feel the article may be too long, with around 60 total bullet points. I’m thinking of some possible changes. I can’t add much more because the article is already quite time-intensive to write.

  • It’s fine, don’t change a thing.
  • Should I go with just the top-10 movers (up or down) with more details on the players involved?
  • The same top-10 list, but keep the descriptions brief.
  • Highlight (i.e., bold) the top movers in the normal article?
  • Just one bullet per team?
  • Any other suggestions?

Thanks for any of your suggestions.

Jeff


Position Player Playing Time Changes: August 26, 2025

Daniel Kucin Jr. – Imagn Images

Welcome to the last Position Player Playing Time Changes roundup of August, highlighted by Adley Rutschman’s injury leading to some rearranging with the Orioles.

Change in Remaining % of Projected Playing Time, 8/19 to 8/26
Name Team Positions Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Nacho Alvarez Jr. ATL 3B,2B,SS 27% 69% 42% Riley injury
Ezequiel Duran TEX LF,SS,3B,1B,2B,RF 28% 68% 40% Semien injury
Darell Hernaiz ATH SS,2B,3B 32% 71% 39% Urías DFA
Luis Matos SFG LF,RF,CF 13% 45% 32% Hot hitting keeping him in lineup
Zack Gelof ATH 2B 48% 77% 29% Back in MLB
Michael Massey KCR 2B 10% 38% 28% Returned from IL
Jacob Wilson ATH SS 60% 88% 28% Returned from IL
Cody Freeman TEX 3B, DH, LF, 2B, SS 31% 56% 25% Semien injury
Jose Trevino CIN C 42% 66% 24% Stephenson injury
Jeremiah Jackson BAL RF, LF, 3B, 2B 26% 48% 22% Hot hitting keeping him in lineup
Adolis García TEX RF, DH 68% 89% 21% Back from IL
Jared Triolo PIT 3B,SS,2B,1B 61% 82% 21% Great month and playing every day
Matt Chapman SFG 3B 73% 92% 19% Back from IL
Gabriel Moreno ARI C, DH 48% 67% 19% Back from IL
Michael Helman TEX CF 1% 20% 19% Called up from AAA
Curtis Mead CHW 2B,DH,3B,1B 31% 49% 18% Playing a bit more lately
Ryan Mountcastle BAL DH, 1B 49% 65% 16% Rutschman injury opened up DH time
JJ Bleday ATH RF, LF, CF 47% 63% 16% Continuing to play pretty often
Rowdy Tellez TEX 1B 35% 50% 15% Getting lion’s share of 1B time against RHP
Alex Jackson BAL C 10% 25% 15% Rutschman injury
Niko Kavadas LAA 1B 5% 19% 14% Schanuel injury
Yordan Alvarez HOU LF,DH 68% 79% 11% Nearing IL return
Alejandro Osuna TEX RF,LF 9% 20% 11% Back in MLB
Andruw Monasterio MIL SS,2B,3B 15% 25% 10% Starting SS with Ortiz out
David Hamilton BOS 2B,SS 6% 16% 10% Back in MLB
Wilyer Abreu BOS RF, DH 73% 62% -11% Strained calf, though should be back soon
Joey Ortiz MIL SS,2B 89% 78% -11% Minor hamstring strain
Francisco Alvarez NYM C, DH 59% 48% -11% Thumb sprain, but ahead of schedule
Dylan Carlson BAL RF,LF,CF 59% 47% -12% Playing less of late
Jackson Merrill SDP CF, DH 89% 77% -12% Sprained ankle
Brett Harris ATH 3B 43% 31% -12% Wilson, Gelof on roster cuts into time
Liover Peguero PIT 2B,3B,1B,SS 63% 50% -13% Losing PT to Triolo
Grant McCray SFG RF,CF,LF 21% 8% -13% Optioned to AAA
Denzel Clarke ATH CF 45% 24% -21% Running out of time to return
Nolan Schanuel LAA 1B 93% 72% -21% Wrist contusion
Ha-Seong Kim TBR SS, 2B 87% 62% -25% Back inflammation
Max Schuemann ATH SS,CF,2B,3B,LF 34% 7% -27% Optioned to AAA
Jordan Westburg BAL 3B 91% 63% -28% Sprained ankle
John Rave KCR CF,RF,DH,LF 47% 16% -31% Optioned to AAA
Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 2B, LF, RF 49% 15% -34% Optioned to AAA
Tyler Stephenson CIN C, DH, 1B 68% 31% -37% Fractured thumb
Adley Rutschman BAL C, DH 88% 33% -55% Oblique strain
Marcus Semien TEX 2B, DH 92% 13% -79% Broken foot

Starting Pitcher Chart – August 26th, 2025

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

I know some of you use this for waivers so my apologies for the morning editions that render that usefulness moot. The target is always night before, but sometimes it ends up in the morning.

Read the rest of this entry »


Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – August 25, 2025

Here is today’s chat transcript:

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Starting Pitcher Chart – August 25th, 2025

Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The chart includes their performance for 2025, their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more valuable focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome, here the winning bids in the two 15-team redraft ToutWars leagues.

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:30
Brent: Do you expect any production of out Hoskins ROS?

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: No

7:32
Rand: Thoughts on Luis Matos who has hit very well in the few games since recall. Noticed he has a very low K rate and very low BABIP. Anything here?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Low BABIP, it’s at .500

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FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 22)


Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Pitcher Playing Time Changes: August 22, 2025

Brad Mills – Imagn Images

Welcome to the latest Pitcher Playing Time Changes, headlined by a significant shakeup in the Phillies rotation due to Zack Wheeler’s potentially-season-ending injury. Below are the latest changes.

Change in Projected % of Team’s Remaining GS, 8/15 to 8/22
Name Team Old PT New PT PT Change Reason
Taijuan Walker PHI 5% 18% 13% Wheeler injury keeps rotation spot locked down
Parker Messick CLE 6% 16% 10% Called up to MLB
Braxton Ashcraft PIT 5% 12% 7% Getting stretched out for full starts
Carson Whisenhunt SFG 7% 13% 6% Roupp injury reopens rotation spot
Antonio Senzatela COL 11% 17% 6% Back from IL
Johan Oviedo PIT 9% 15% 6% Back from minors
Martín Pérez CHW 11% 16% 5% Sticking in rotation with Burke optioned
Bryce Miller SEA 13% 18% 5% Back from IL
Joey Cantillo CLE 13% 4% -9% Optioned to AAA
Sean Burke CHW 17% 7% -10% Optioned to AAA
Landen Roupp SFG 16% 4% -12% Knee injury
Erick Fedde 페디 ATL 19% 6% -13% Moved to bullpen
Zack Wheeler PHI 20% 4% -16% Upper extremity blood clot
Andrew Heaney PIT 19% 1% -18% Moved to bullpen

 

Change in Projected RP IP, 8/15 to 8/22
Name Team % Chg in Proj. RP IP Reason
Craig Kimbrel HOU 460% Coming back to MLB
Walker Buehler BOS 225% Team considering move to bullpen
Richard Fitts BOS 175% Back in MLB, working out of bullpen
Jacob Webb TEX 70% Activated from IL
Justin Slaten BOS 41% Began rehab assignment
Chris Martin TEX 36% Working through PFPs (calf injury)
John King STL 35% Began rehab assignment
Robert Stephenson LAA 32% Began rehab assignment
Alexis Díaz LAD -31% Optioned to AAA
Cam Sanders PIT -31% Optioned to AAA
Luis Mey CIN -32% Optioned to AAA
Jonathan Loáisiga NYY -58% Seeking second opinion for flexor strain
DL Hall MIL -59% Oblique strain
Dustin May BOS -64% Likelier to stay in rotation with Buehler unsettled
Taijuan Walker PHI -100% Wheeler injury
Connor Brogdon LAA -100% DFA’d + elected FA
Ryan Borucki PIT -100% DFA’d + elected FA
Jon Gray TEX -100% Thoracic outlet syndrome
Emmanuel Clase CLE -100% Return feels unlikely
Josh Hader HOU -100% Postseason return still possible
Anthony Bender MIA -100% Season-ending knee injury

Big Kid Adds (Week 20)


Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Dylan Beavers (10): A solid target for any fantasy managers needing help with batting average and/or stolen bases. The 24-year-old outfielder may not have elite power, but it’s non-zero with 15 HR last season and 18 so far this year. He has a great eye and consistently posts a .400 OBP. Being on base that much means he has a chance to steal bases (55-grade speed).

Colby Thomas (10): For fantasy teams needing power, Thomas is the long shot. In the minors, he hit 31 HR in 2024 and 18 HR this season. In the majors, he added 3 HR to the total. He’s even added 2 SB.

His downfall is his 43% K% (21% SwStr%) with a .370 BABIP, maintaining his .241 AVG. Pitchers are getting him to swing-and-miss on four-seam fastballs (17% SwStr%) while secondaries are causing additional issues (slider: 26% SwStr%, change: 35% SwStr%). He’s going to have a short career if he can’t hit fastballs.

Paul DeJong (8) and Adam Frazier (7): You know the options are limited when Frazier and DeJong join the most-added lists.

Yoán Moncada (6): Strong-side platoon bat who is batting .237/.328/.373  in the second half. And not hurt … yet.

Daylen Lile (6): The 22-year-old rookie is playing and seems to be breaking out with a .635 OPS in the first half and .784 OPS in the second half. All the gains are BABIP driven (.258 BABIP to .355 BABIP) with his strikeouts up (14% K% to 20% K%) and walks down (6% to 5%).

Miguel Andujar (5): Starting every day in the cleanup spot for a team that plays in a high school-sized field. Solid add.

Evan Carter (5): Carter gets outfield starts with Adolis Garcia on the IL. While he might not be in a platoon, he should be (.309 OPS vRHP in ’25, .262 OPS for his career). He’s not going to be a positive in power or batting average, but he does have 13 SB.

I’ve been dismissive of Carter, but he’s showing some signs of improvement with a career-low strikeout rate (19% K%) and career-high max exit velocity (111 mph).

Miguel Vargas (5): Off the IL and back on fantasy rosters.

Brett Baty (5): Started in eight of the last nine games with a 109 OPS+. It’s tough to determine who is starting at second and third base since Baty is sharing time with Mark Vientos (88 OPS+) and Ronny Mauricio (95 OPS+).

Victor Robles (5):

Gabriel Moreno (5): On a rehab assignment and should be joining the major league team soon.

Miguel Rojas (5): One of the few available Dodger options for their four games in Colorado.

Starters

Nolan McLean (11): Deserves all the love after his first start with 8 K and 0 ER over 5 IP. There are a couple of issues. The first is the excessive walks (4.0 BB/9 in the minors, 6.8 BB/9 in the majors). The STUPH models picked up on this, with both giving him below-average overall grades (high Stuff, low command).

Cristian Javier (11): During his rehab, he posted just as many walks as strikeouts (15). Over the first two starts, his 3.38 ERA looks great, but his ERA estimators point to a 4.50 ERA talent. His STUPH grades think he’s worse (4.91 bot ERA).

Monitor his groundball rate. An 18% GB% points to a 1.9 HR/9. He’s not even limiting hard contact (50% HardHit%).

With so few options, he’s worth adding, but closely monitor his production.

Taijuan Walker (6): It’s nearing the point that Walker is going to be an anchor for the postseason rotation.

Yoendrys Gómez (6): After 12 relief appearances, he’s started twice with a 3.60 ERA (4.74 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9. He’s thrown six different pitches this year that all grade out as average. He needs the large pitch mix to navigate a lineup.

Bryce Elder (5): The career 4.78 ERA “talent” faced the White Sox this week and rewarded his fantasy managers with 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, and 3 K in 4 IP. Bryce Elder and his career 4.78 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are never the answer.

Luis Morales (5): Let’s start with two stats: 1.86 ERA and 8.4 K/9. Not bad. Even add in a 3.73 FIP. Then there is the 7.5 BB/9, 1.66 WHIP, 4.67 botERA, and 5.93 xFIP. Just the 1.66 WHIP did as much ratio damage as a 6.46 ERA.

Relievers

Victor Vodnik (6): Fantasy managers with a Rockies closer …

… and after a three Save week …

Bryan Abreu (5): Great reliever who is now the closer on a good team. Added for top dollar in leagues where he was not already rostered.

 

Players Added in NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues Added Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Nolan McLean 11 145 15
Cristian Javier 11 64 3
Dylan Beavers 10 39 1
Colby Thomas 10 37 3
Paul DeJong 8 18 1
Adam Frazier 7 5 1
Victor Vodnik 6 12 5
Taijuan Walker 6 10 1
Yoan Moncada 6 9 1
Yoendrys Gomez 6 8 1
Daylen Lile 6 4 2
Bryan Abreu 5 72 31
Miguel Andujar 5 65 3
Evan Carter 5 22 6
Miguel Vargas 5 20 1
Brett Baty 5 16 1
Victor Robles 5 15 1
Gabriel Moreno 5 9 1
Bryce Elder 5 6 1
Luis Morales 5 4 1
Miguel Rojas 5 3 2
Will Vest 4 15 3
Ronny Simon 4 12 1
Braxton Ashcraft 4 11 3
Mick Abel 4 11 3
Caleb Durbin 4 9 4
Shawn Armstrong 4 8 1
Michael Lorenzen 4 7 3
Ramon Urias 4 6 1
Ian Seymour 4 4 1
JP Sears 4 3 1
Jake Meyers 4 3 2
Aaron Ashby 4 3 1