Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

• Hiroto Saiki will NOT be posted after all.

RHP Hiroto Saiki is not expected to have his posting to MLB approved by the Hanshin Tigers following the team’s loss in the Japan Series.https://t.co/2yeooFhzSV

— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) October 31, 2025

American League

Blue Jays

• Bo Bichette will not have offseason knee surgery.

Bo Bichette says he’s not anticipating needing off-season surgery on his knee.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) October 31, 2025

Guardians

Mariners

• Bryce Miller will not have surgery to remove a bone spur that bothered him last season.

Seattle right-hander Bryce Miller is not expected to need elbow surgery this offseason, reports Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Miller had multiple stints on the injured list this past season due to elbow inflammation. He returned for the final six weeks of the regular season and made three starts in the playoffs. “I finished the year the best I felt all year — three good starts, I felt like,” Miller told Jude. “My body and my arm feel good, so just get better, get fully healthy and be ready to go from Day 1 next year.”

Miller was diagnosed with a bone spur in his elbow and received a PRP injection in early June. He relayed to Jude that he has an upcoming appointment to determine the next steps in treatment. Miller said the likely route is a gel cortisone injection early this offseason, and potentially another one at the start of spring training. “Now that we know how to deal with the bone spur, we can figure out what we need to do exactly with it and go from there,” Miller told Jude. He added that he’d be “surprised” if the appointment led to an invasive procedure.

Red Sox

• Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic thinks Connelly Early will be in the rotation before Payton Tolle.

That said, I think Early is a bit ahead of Tolle, both in development because he’s a year further along and in terms of his major league readiness. I could see a scenario where he’s the No. 5 starter on Opening Day, but of course, there are a lot of moving parts this winter. We’ve also seen that the rotation the team thinks it has at the start of spring inevitably gets shuffled because of a pitcher injury or setback in the spring.

Tigers

• Gleyber Torres had hernia surgery.

Torres’ representatives announced the successful surgery on social media Friday morning. He is expected to be healthy for the start of Spring Training in a few months.

• Top prospect, Max Anderson, is working on playing third base and hitting the ball in the air in the Arizona Fall League.

Anderson is seeking something similar. He made 21 appearances at the hot corner – a spot he had never appeared professionally – between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo during the regular season, and he has made each of his first seven defensive starts there with Scottsdale.
…
Even beyond the raw statistics, there were things that Anderson would have to improve upon in his second full pro year – his 55.4 percent ground-ball rate at Double-A among them. He dropped that mark by more than 10 percent during his time with Erie in ‘25 (44.8 percent).

“As simple as it sounds, really just trying to hit the bottom of the ball,” said Anderson. “Nothing crazy, no swing changes or anything, just trying to get under it, as simple as it sounds – it’s almost more of a mentality than a swing change.”

White Sox

• Tim Elko just had knee surgery and expects to miss eight months.

1B Tim Elko
Injury: Torn ACL in right knee
Expected return: June-July 2026
Status: Elko underwent successful surgery to repair the torn ACL on Oct. 28, performed by Dr. Lyle Cain at the Andrews Sports Medicine and Orthopedic Center in Birmingham, Ala. His estimated recovery time is eight months, per the team.

National League

Diamondbacks

• Jordan Lawlar is getting center field reps.

Los azules en La Romana para esta noche… 😎👑#ElgLorioso 💙 pic.twitter.com/hx7IXHTV63

— Tigres del Licey (@TigresdelLicey) October 28, 2025

Padres

• The team plans on Luis Campusano contributing next season.

The majority of the Padres’ arbitration-eligible players are expected back in 2026. Luis Campusano, who made $1 million in ‘25, is an interesting case, but Preller, speaking during his end-of-season press conference, noted that Campusano would be part of the team’s plans this winter.

Reds

• There are no plans to move Elly De La Cruz to the outfield.

As for the common question of whether De La Cruz should be moved off shortstop to center field to get more production from him offensively, that’s not in the club’s plans.

“As of right now, no,” Krall said.

Rockies

• Kris Bryant’s back is all jacked up and getting worse.

Kris Bryant has played in only 170 games over his four seasons with the Rockies, and the 2025 campaign saw Bryant appear in just 10 games before his recurring back issues brought his season to an early close. Lumbar degenerative disc disease has left Bryant feeling pain while performing basically every baseball activity not related to swinging, and the former NL MVP told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, and this discomfort has now extended to his day-to-day life.

“It’s exhausting for me waking up and hoping to feel [better],” Bryant said. “I can’t tell you the last time I woke up feeling I’m in a good spot….If you asked me two or three months ago, I would say [my back pain] was not affecting my everyday life. But now it is, which is really annoying to me because usually when you kind of just rest, it’s supposed to get better. So maybe I’m at a point where I should just do a bunch of stuff to see if that helps me.”

The ever-shrinking share of innings going to starting pitchers in today’s game has us focusing on volume more than ever. “Bankable” these days is someone with back-to-back 150+ IP seasons, a total that doesn’t even qualify for the ERA title (requires at least 162). A blind spot in my analysis has been that I don’t follow up the year after their surge. I’ll read or even create content in the spring of a given year highlighting the big IP gainers from the previous year just so people are knowledgeable about the big spikes, but I don’t circle back to see what those guys did for an encore.

We will look at the biggest IP gainers from 2023 to 2024 and see how their 2025 fared. There were 21 pitchers who added at least 75 innings in 2024 and they’ll serve as our focus group here broken down into a few clusters. Later in the offseason, I’ll take a closer look at the 2025 IP gainers with some thoughts on their 2026 outlook.

100+ IP HEROES

Nine pitchers added at least 100 innings in 2024, averaging just 38 innings per season in 2023 before surging to 158 per in 2024. Meanwhile, the group’s average FIP dropped as well, down 78 points to 3.89.

Frankie Montas essentially missed all of 2023 with just 1.3 IP so virtually all of his 2024 was surplus. Unfortunately, the results weren’t anywhere near his 2021-22 output (3.55 FIP). An early-spring lat injury kept anyone from investing so his flop season with the Mets (39 IP of 6.28 ERA and TJ surgery) wasn’t really felt on the fantasy landscape.

Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, and Carlos Rodón are the major outliers on the list, all adding volume to their 2025 total with elite production. Crochet’s FIP went up, but only 20 pts to 2.89 in 205.3 IP, most in the AL. Skubal, of course, is headed toward a second straight Cy Young win. Rodón did have a 1.40 improvement on his FIP in 2024 but that only got him to 4.39, though 16 Ws and 195s Ks helped him still finish SP42. He was back to stud Rodón this year with an SP10 finish.

Simeon Woods Richardson couldn’t maintain his 2024 volume, but he did still lower his ERA and WHIP despite the 40-point jump in FIP. He delivered occasional streamer value en route to a 4.04 ERA/1.28 WHIP in 111 IP.

Ronel Blanco was felled by TJ (internal brace version) which is a bummer because I would’ve liked to see how he followed up his breakout season. His skills remained intact with a 14% K-BB and he was still extremely difficult to square up with a .207 AVG against. Now he’ll miss most of 2026 and have to climb back up the hill at age-33 in 2027.

Nestor Cortes had a disastrous Opening Day in Yankee Stadium (8 ER), was traded to San Diego during a 4-month injury absence and looked decent again in his August return before a torn biceps injury cut him down and will now keep him out for half of 2026. He is completely off the fantasy radar at this point.

Trevor Rogers is the most unique case on the board. He ramped back up to 153 innings if you count his MiLB work but struggled so much that he became an fantasy afterthought. He was also going to miss upwards of two months to start the 2025 season leaving no reason to draft him anywhere outside of maaaaybe a last 2-3 round Hail Mary in Draft Champions. Instead, he became arguably the fantasy pickup of the season (at least pitcher pickup; Nick Kurtz is really tough to beat for the overall best pickup). He had an elite season debut on the backend of a doubleheader against Boston in late-May but was sent back down for over three more weeks before settling in for the stretch run. Now he’s the de facto ace of the O’s and positioned to be a mid-rotation fantasy arm in 2026. The return of his velocity (+1.2 to 93.1 mph) and razor-sharp skills (18% K-BB) have me ready to buy back in at the draft table.

Looking at 2025, the group’s average output dropped to 107 IP but the collective FIP improved as only Cortes and Montas were bad — both for fewer than 40 innings, though, so not a lot of damage came from them.

85-99 IP SURGES

The seven pitchers featured here came with a lot of hype for 2025 thanks to a couple fantasy aces and several young arms on the rise. Their 164 IP average actually tops the first group, but they are coming from higher 2023 totals so only an average of +91 IP. They also clipped the first group in 2024 FIP with a 3.89 mark.

Max Fried was either your 2/3 if you were pitching-forward or the ace for a team waiting on starters and he delivered with an SP11 finish. His 195 innings mitigate the strikeout rate issues as his 189 total tied for 14th-most. The 19 Ws play a big role in that finish as well, but it’s not like his 2.86 ERA/1.10 WHIP combo is anything shy of fantastic meaning even if win volatility gets the best of him next year, there is still a firm skills floor here. He also now has at least 165 IP in 4 of the last five seasons. I’m still getting used to that being workhorse adjacent (18th in IP since 2021), but that’s where we are today.

Cole Ragans laid such strong groundwork in 12 starts with the Royals in 2023 that his breakout 2024 wasn’t a huge shock. In fact, paired together he had 258 IP of a 3.00 ERA/1.12 WHIP and ascended into a top 50 overall ADP for 2015. He showed flashes of greatness, including a 3-start, 31-strikeout run right out of the gate, but he sputtered in May and injuries limited his ability to ever recover leaving him with a 4.67 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 62 IP. He did finish strong in three abbreviated September starts (2.77 ERA/0.77 WHIP/22 Ks in 13 IP) and posted 38% K rate on the year, both of which have buying back in even at a continued high price. Nothing about his season has me less confident in his ability. He might not stay healthy in 2026, either, but I’ll bet on the talent.

Ryan Pepiot and Brandon Pfaadt were both big breakout picks with similar ADPs and a lot of crossover amongst their ardent supporters. Both were building on sharp small samples from the year before and played on teams capable of supporting a quality young arm (at least we thought so coming into the season, both clubs wound up sub-.500 and short of expectations). Results aside, it is encouraging that both managed big IP totals again this year. Pepiot added 38 IP up to a career-high 168 while Pfaadt’s 5 IP dip was more because of performance as he actually managed 1 more start than 2024 with 33 (Logan Webb stood alone with 34).

The “results aside” caveat was really just for Pfaadt as his excellent 5% BB rate (3rd in MLB) was essentially wasted by the 1.3 HR9 and .316 BABIP. There’s a case he’s just in the zone too much as neither problem is new (career 1.4, .315). Pepiot didn’t reach the lofty heights I had for him in my Bold Predictions, but he gave you what you paid for: SP46 ADP, SP45 season finish.

I’ve been using FIP as the easy catchall here but it does obscure the success of someone like Jose Quintana who posted a 3.96 ERA, nearly a run lower than his 4.81 FIP. And he was likely curated to an even better ERA by many of his fantasy managers as a streamer. He ended the season with a 7.40 ERA in his final four starts, but most managers likely avoided the bulk if not all of those starts given the matchups (ARI, PHI, TEX, STL). In short, a quality streamer who even found shallow league viability early on as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA through his first 10 starts.

The market was keen to what Sacramento’s park could do to Luis Severino after his rebirth with the Mets in 2024. His early-300s ADP was even too high for his SP161 finish, but his buyers went in eyes wide open to the potential trouble at that stadium. Sometimes playing a home/road split with a pitcher is dangerous, but Sevvy proved incredibly bankable depending on venue. He was completely unusable in Sacramento with a 6.01 ERA/1.53 WHIP and wasn’t shy about how he felt pitching there. Meanwhile, he was a ratios stud on the road with a 3.02 ERA/1.07 WHIP. If he is traded out and lands in the right spot, he could be a worthy bounce back bet for next season, but if he remains with Sacramento then he’ll stay a venue-focused streamer which is a scary player class to bet on.

Kyle Harrison had a whirlwind first half with the Giants. He started in the minors and then spent time in the bullpen after a promotion back to SF, capped off by a brief stint in the Giants rotation before his inclusion in the huge Rafael Devers trade that put him on the Red Sox. They sent him back to the minors until September when they gave him a relief appearance and two starts. He was a bit different with the Red Sox, but not really in obvious standout ways. His velo was down nearly 2 mph to 93.4 but he threw a lot fewer fastballs (-13 pts to 52% usage), funneling most of that into his 87 mph cutter (11% usage) while also amplifying his curve usage 7 pts to 32%. For more on his changes with Boston, check out this David Laurila piece. He did enough to get back on my radar. A former big time prospect who will be just 24 years old in an organization that has done some intriguing things with starting pitchers is a winning formula for a quality late-round pick.

75-84 IP JUMPS

Our final group features three studs (Sánchez, Lodolo, Sale) and two duds (Paddack, Fulmer). It was the only group who saw their 2025 output go up as the gains of Paddack, Sánchez, and Lodolo cancelled out the 50+ inning dips of Sale and Fulmer. Paddack keeps them from improving their FIP as a whole, but no one felt bad about investing in the three studs even with Sale dropping his IP count so much.

Cristopher Sánchez showed that 2024 was just the beginning for him, pitching quite a bit better in 2025 with a 2.50 ERA/1.06 WHIP combo in a career-high 202 innings, up 20 from his 2024 total. His SP6 finish might perfectly portend his 2026 ADP. He could even secure the 5-spot after Skubal, Yamamoto, Skenes, and Crochet.

At age-36 and litany of injuries on his ledger, it was hard to expect another 170+ innings from Chris Sale but I was confident that the innings we did get would be good. And that’s how it all played out: he pitched 126 innings with a sparkling 2.58 ERA/1.07 WHIP combo with a near-identical 26% K-BB rate (-0.4 from 2024). Where do we go from here, though? He can be a top 25-30 SP with even just 100 innings if they’re good enough, but what price are you willing to pay for the 37-year-old southpaw? I know he’s not coming off a Cy Young win again, but I’m not sure he drops all that far off his 36 ADP from 2025.

Nick Lodolo missed most of August and some of September, but otherwise had a great season. He took the compelling skills we saw in 2024 and turned ‘em into results in 2025. Like teammate Hunter Greene, his HR rate jumped back up in 2025 but his control improvements mitigated any damage from the added homers. He will likely be a big fantasy target for his believers next season and even drum up some longshot Cy Young chatter.

Chris Paddack was a passable backend innings eater for the Twins but a gigantic surge in homers (+1.3 to 2.7 HR9) tanked his time with the Tigers and snuffed out the last remnants of fantasy value that might’ve been lurking.

—

The ultimate takeaway here is that I don’t think an innings surge alone should change how you feel about a pitcher. You should probably expect fewer innings (-31 on average among the 21 pitchers studied here), but outside of Cortes’s 35 IP meltdown the performance of the collective group didn’t really fall off. There will be some tricky cases to investigate such Matthew Boyd and Drew Rasmussen and again, I’ll take a deeper look at the 2025 gainers later into the offseason.

Syndication: Arizona Republic

Last season, Josh Naylor and Juan Soto defied all expectations and each stole at least 30 bases. In the previous three seasons combined, they stole just 25 or fewer bases. With such a major jump, I wanted to see how many bases players stole after such a major increase. The answer is way more than I would have guessed. Read the rest of this entry »

Syndication: The Enquirer

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Andy Pages) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later. Read the rest of this entry »

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

• Anthony Kay will return to the majors after pitching in Japan

Lefty Anthony Kay, the Mets' 2016 first-round pick, is expected to return to MLB after two years in Japan. He led NPB this year in groundball rate (57.8%) while setting Yokohama's single season ERA record (1.74) and pitching 155 innings. His fastball averaged 94.6 MPH.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) October 22, 2025

Here are the MLB results for his comps. His 7.6 K/9 with a “high” 2.4 BB/9 limits his upside.

• And now Kazuma Okamoto will be posted at some point.

The Yomiuri Giants will allow Kazuma Okamoto to move to MLB via the posting system. https://t.co/BG3jqp7LHY

— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 22, 2025

American League

Red Sox

• Kristian Campbell plans on “adding weight and gaining strength”.

Campbell is expected to head to Fort Myers, Fla. soon. The Red Sox are hosting their offseason training program there for minor leaguers, which began in early October and runs through mid November. Once there he’ll get back into baseball activities, but the main goals there will be on adding weight and gaining strength.

“A big focus for him this offseason, he lost some weight during the year, adding some of that weight back and it’ll be getting back the strength that allowed him to impact the baseball the way he could,” Abraham said. “That allowed him to have the range in both the infield and outfield and that will be a focus.”
…
But a lack of strength and mass likely led to Campbell’s dip in exit velocity and his ability to impact the ball. His ferocious swing and hard-hit rates had been his calling card. In the spring, he made it to the final four of a hitting tournament the team held for its minor leaguers. That hard-hit ability was part of the reason he was added to the team at the start of the season.

Here are his 2025 MLB avgEV per month and his AAA average.

Month: avgEV
Apr: 89.5
May: 89.0
Jun: 85.9
MiLB: 84.0

He suffered a rib injury May 1st, but his exit velocities stayed up in May, but everything else fell apart. He posted a .902 OPS in April and just a .355 OPS in May (.799 OPS in AAA).

Tigers

• According to his manager, Troy Melton will be a starter.

Melton will not have to handle another move next year. And as the Tigers revisit questions about their rotation for next season, Melton — who totaled 129 1/3 innings in the Minors, regular season and playoffs — is a potentially big part.

“He’s a starter,” Hinch said.

• The team expects to have some help from players in AA …

“I expect the players that posted dominant years in Double-A to factor into our big league team next year,” Harris said. “They’ve earned it. They posted incredible years as 20-year-olds, very young for the level. I expect their progress to continue, and I expect them to be in Detroit at some point next year.”

… and here are the players listed on options.

Kevin McGonigle, IF (Tigers No. 1, MLB No. 2)
…
Max Clark, CF (Tigers No. 2, MLB No. 8)
…
Max Anderson, IF (Tigers No. 9)
…
Josue Briceño, C/1B (Tigers No. 3, MLB No. 33)

Yankees

• Ben Rice started the 2025 season with a new batting stance and added weight.

So Rice spent last offseason teaching himself to begin with his right foot nearly at the edge of the batter’s box — or in an open stance. It made all the difference. With a new stance — and with approximately 10 pounds of added strength — Rice turned in a stellar second big-league season at the plate, hitting .255 with 26 home runs, 65 RBIs and an .836 OPS. His 131 OPS+ meant that he produced at a rate 31 percent better than the league-average hitter.

National League

Brewers

• William Contreras may have surgery on his finger and Caleb Durbin did have elbow surgery.

End of season injury news from the Brewers:

– William Contreras will see a hand specialist next week for a “potential correction” of his fractured left middle finger.

– Caleb Durbin will have arthroscopic elbow surgery on Oct. 30. Expected healthy in time for ‘26.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) October 23, 2025

• Sal Frelick will not have surgery on his bothersome knee.

Frelick battled knee soreness over the final months of the regular season. He missed a handful of games in early August, but never went to the IL. Offseason imaging on the knee came back clean, with the team describing the findings as “unremarkable.” Frelick is expected to have a normal offseason.

Cardinals

• There is a chance Lars Nootbaar misses the start of the season.

This morning during “Sports on a Sunday Morning” on @KMOXSports, #STLCards POBO Chaim Bloom told me that Opening Day is not off-the-table but not guaranteed for Lars Nootbaar following his heel surgery. They will not hurry the rehab process but if he does miss time at the start…

— Matt Pauley 🎙️ (@MattPauleyOnAir) October 26, 2025

Dodgers

• Tommy Edman might need offseason surgery on his ankle.

However, while Edman stated before Game Two that his ankle is “healthy,” he said that potential offseason surgery could be an option.

“Ankle’s feeling really good,” Edman said. “I haven’t really talked that through with Doc. I think the plan is just second base for now. Maybe that will be a conversation. I’m not really sure. But for now, just second base.”

Edman was unable to give a clear answer when asked if he would need surgery on his right ankle during the offseason.

Mets

• Francisco Lindor had minor surgery on his elbow.

Francisco Lindor underwent a right elbow operation after the completion of the 2025 regular season, the Mets announced Wednesday, but the shortstop is expected to make a full recovery before the start of Spring Training.

The surgery, a right elbow debridement, came two years after Lindor underwent a procedure to remove bone spurs from the same elbow.

• Christian Scott expects to be a “full participant in spring training” …

With the season over, however, Scott said the plan is to move on to a “de-load” period before ramping things back up in January. The Mets’ top pitching prospect in 2024, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, Scott hopes to be a full participant in spring training.

“It’s going really smoothly,” Scott said over the phone from Port St. Lucie, Fla., which he has essentially called home since Jan. 4. “I haven’t really had any setbacks or had anything that’s really come up at all. I’ve looked back at the nine games I’ve pitched in the big leagues and I know what I’ve needed to work on to improve my game.

… with a new changeup and similar fastball velocity.

Notably, Scott has tinkered with his changeup, a pitch he hopes can help him against left-handed batters (Scott held right-handed batters to a .532 OPS, but lefties produced a .942 OPS against him). Previously, Scott utilized more of a split-finger grip with his changeup. Now, he is using more of a traditional grip, he said.

“The in-zone percentage just wasn’t good enough with the split-finger before I got hurt,” Scott said. “Just being able to have a pitch that’s in the zone a little bit more and also moves a little bit better, in theory, is going to help me get more outs against left-handed hitters.

During his bullpen sessions, Scott’s fastball velocity has checked in around 94 mph, his average speed in 2024. At times, he said, he has recently flashed 96 mph.

Phillies

• Zack Wheeler could be rotation ready by Opening Day.

Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said on Foul Territory on Thursday that right-hander Zack Wheeler (shoulder) could have a chance to be ready for Opening Day in 2026, and that they aren’t expecting Wheeler to have any setbacks during his recovery this offseason from thoracic outlet surgery. “We’re hopeful it’ll [his return] be on the front end, which would even get him ready for Opening Day, but right now he’s doing very good,” Dombrowski said.

October… the quiet time for fantasy baseball. Not for everybody, of course… I see y’all already running Draft Champions and Draft 50s over at the NFBC. I’ll be there next month. For the majority of the community, it’s review time and we here at Fangraphs have been running through our Bold Predictions to see how they went. BPs are always fun because they aren’t meant to be picks that have a super high likelihood of coming true, or else they wouldn’t be all that bold. It’s about to exploring the what could feasibly happen if things really line up but it’s far from the most likely outcome.

So even landing a few feels good when checking the over the slate in the October, let’s see how I did:

Seiya Suzuki is a Top 10 OF

Jeez, if you had told me that Suzuki was going to put up 32 HR/103 RBI back in March, I would’ve said this one is a lock. And yet, it’s not only a loss, but a resounding one. He was the 15th OF last year with a 21 HR/73 RBI/74 R/16 SB/.283 AVG season, but fell to 25th because his AVG dropped nearly 40 points to .245 while the SB total tumbled to just 5. It wasn’t a bad season for him, but we’re 0-for-1: .000

Read the rest of this entry »

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With no ADP yet, I’m going to start diving into some deeper outfielders. For the players, I used the last outfielders drafted in the first 11 rounds of the Too Early Meatball Draft. One caveat: I’m not going to feature anyone who is still playing (sorry, Addison Barger) or should be a free agent. I want as much information as possible on the player. There are plenty of outfielders to examine now and then later.

Note: I plan on using the the Final Take writeups in my outfielder rankings when they come up in little over a month.

Dylan Crews (Pick 146): There were high hopes for the 23-year-old top prospect (we had him ranked as #3 overall prospect) coming into the 2025 season. He was limited to 322 PA over 85 Games because of a mid-May oblique strain. He did not return until mid-August. Before going on the IL, he had a .620 OPS and a .643 OPS after returning. While the values seemed similar, he was a different hitter.

Before the injury, he posted a 28% K% (.196 AVG), and he was able to drop it to a 19% K% after the injury (.222 AVG). The improved contact came with a tradeoff, with all his power metrics down (.158 ISO to .126 ISO, 15% Barrel% to 5% Barrel%). He showed no signs of gaining his early-season power.

On the hitting front (I’ll get to the stolen bases in a bit), he has the deadly combination of too many Strikeouts for his limited power. On their own, they aren’t an issue, but the combination is. Here are the hitters around him in HardHit%-K% (min 300 PA).

Some upward regression is expected since he has the lowest OPS of the group. Also, it’s nice to see Greene, Robert, and Edwards on the list since they got drafted ahead of Crews. Overall though, it’s an uninspiring list.

The 17 SB saved Crews’ fantasy value, and the hope is that he’ll double them with a mid-30s total. There could even be hope of more since he stole 11 bags before going on the IL and just six after returning. Or he could minimize his injury risk and have a mid-20s stolen base total.

Final Take: As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Jakob Marsee (Pick 148): The one person I wrote about in my waiver wire report that I’ve got the most feedback on was Marsee. After the trade deadline, a spot opened up for him with Jesús Sánchez going to the Astros. All I wrote was:

Jakob Marsee: Just promoted to the majors while batting .246/.379/.438 with 14 HR and 57 SB in AAA.

In fairness, I didn’t care much about his overall game, but just the 57 bases he stole. At that point in the season in a Roto league, several teams could use a boost in stolen bases, and that’s what the 24-year-old provided … and more. In 235 PA (55 G), he had 5 HR, 14 SB, and a .292 AVG. While he didn’t start batting at the top of the lineup, he eventually got there by rotating through the top three spots. So, what to expect in 2026?

Starting off, here are players with similar projections to his Steamer600, where he ranks as the 144th-best option.

Not the league’s best hitters, but all provide a good number of stolen bases and a dozen or so home runs if they are given a full-time role. But those batting averages. Woof.

Our 3-year ZiPS projections agree with Steamer, non-zero power, and a good number of stolen bases, but with a near .200 AVG.

The disconnect between Marsee’s 2025 season and this projection is the 60 points or more in batting average. I’m going to go against this projection (hopefully, a clearer picture emerges once other projections become available).

I can see why the projections are not a fan of him after, in the minors, he posted a .200 AVG in ’24 and a .246 AVG in ’24. Those are over 1000 PA against weaker competition to help drag down his overall projection. On the positive side:

1. He posted a .283 xAVG, not much lower than his .292 AVG.
2. He maintains a reasonable strikeout rate and won’t need a high BABIP to keep his batting average up.
3. I have three batted ball and swing comps I can run. They average out to a .245 AVG and .280 BABIP. By increasing his rate stats by 13 points, the comps are better, but still not great.

Final Take: Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Jac Caglianone (Pick 161): Caglianone’s 2025 minor league stats (1.025 OPS) compared to Nick Kurtz (1.090 OPS), but they were opposites once promoted to the majors. Kurtz nearly matched his minor league production with a 1.002 OPS. Caglianone was at half that number (.532 OPS).

Caglianone dealt with a mid-season hamstring strain, but the effects of it didn’t drag him down since he hit worse before going on the IL (.485 OPS) than after it (.643 OPS). No reasonable fantasy manager is aiming for a .643 OPS with an earlier round pick.

He struggled in all aspects of his game, with the main drags being a .172 BABIP and a 50% GB%, especially with a Sprint Speed in the bottom third of the league. He’s not beating out many throws to first base. Additionally, his power was good but not elite.

I hate to go with the answer (upward) “regression”, but all his comps and projections point to a .245 to .250 AVG. Say, he hits .250 with 25 HR (if he repeats 2025, he should have a high teens home run number) and no stolen bases. Those numbers are comparable to the Andrew Vaughn, Brett Baty, and Josh Bell level of batter. Not a top-10 round talent.

Now, if Caglianone can push those numbers to 30 and a .265 AVG, he’s more in the Riley Greene and Austin Riley talent level. Or he could repeat his 2025 season and be unrosterable. Nobody knows.

Final Take: Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Kerry Carpenter (Pick 163): As long as he’s healthy (see 2024), Carpenter is the easiest 25 HR, 0 SB, .265 AVG, and 460 PA projection. In two of his last three seasons, these numbers were almost identical, and the value wasn’t there in 2024 when he dealt with a back injury. In 2025, he came in as the 122nd-rated hitter and the 116th in 2023. A safe bet would be between the 110th and 130th hitter in 2026.

The 28-year-old sees limited at-bats because he struggles against lefties. Over his career, he has a .866 OPS against righties and a .606 OPS against lefties. He didn’t show much improvement last season with a .638 OPS against lefties.

With his consistency, the key is to find any possible upside. The most obvious would be batting against lefties, where he’d see his three counting stats go up but his batting average drop. There aren’t any other areas for him to improve unless he goes full Josh Naylor and starts stealing bases out of nowhere. He is who we thought he was.

Final Take: While a strong-side platoon bat, the consistent Kerry Carpenter is a solid bet to hit around a .265 AVG with 25 HR.

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

• After releasing my comps for players hoping to move from a foreign league to the MLB, here are two more guys looking to make the move. The first is Foster Griffin (link) …

… and the other is Sung-moon Song 송성문 (link).

• There is a chance Kazuma Okamoto will not get posted after all.

Several industry sources believe that the Yomiuri Giants will not post 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto after the season.

Okamoto, 29, is one of the best hitters in Japanese baseball, with 248 career home runs.

— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) October 20, 2025

• And finally, our boy Lance Brozdowski created his own projections for some of the players making the move. He’s even more dismissive of anyone making a major impact.

American League

Rays

• The team thinks Jake Mangum and Chandler Simpson can “co-exist,” but believe Jonny DeLuca will play centerfield.

Jake Mangum and Chandler Simpson are coming off impressive rookie seasons. They’re similar players, built to thrive with contact and speed, with Simpson stealing more bases (44 in 109 games) and Mangum the more polished defender. But Neander said they can co-exist in the same lineup, and he noted that moving from George M. Steinbrenner Field back to Tropicana Field could help both, as their skill sets make them “built for bigger parks.”
…
“Having a lockdown defender in center field is probably as much as our identity that we’ve had as a team for as long as I’ve been here,” Neander said. “[DeLuca’s] greatest strength was to be that type of defender in center field, and not having him, we felt it.

“A healthy Jonny DeLuca will be a huge add to wherever we come out going into camp.”

I think some team will trade for one of these three centerfielders.

Royals

• Bobby Witt Jr. saw a drop in stolen bases because of a lower on-base rate and injuries.

There’s so much that goes into baserunning that it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what went wrong. Witt stole more bases this year, but he still felt like he could have had more and pointed to several reasons why he didn’t, including that his on-base percentage dipped (.389 last year to .351 this year) and that he was limited by injuries at times.

I looked into the injury angle. At RotoWire, they marked three instances of a Witt getting hurt (no IL stint):

Injury date (location)

• July 23rd (knee)
• Aug 11th (back)
• Sept 5th (back)

Before the first injury, he was 27 for 34 in stolen base attempts over 102 games. An attempt once every 3.0 games. After the first injury, he was 11 for 13 in stolen base attempts over 55 games, or an attempt once every 4.2 games. A change, but not a major one.

He started running fewer times before the first reported injury. Here are his Stolen Base attempts by month.

Month: SB Attempts

• Apr: 13
• May: 12
• Jun: 2
• Jul: 8
• Aug: 6
• Sep: 6

He was on pace for 70 SB, but then June hit, and he slowed down to 33 SB pace. I could not find a reason for the June decline.

Tigers

• Kevin McGonigle, who only played shortstop this minor-league season, is working at third base in the Arizona Fall League.

And with McGonigle, Clark and Josue Briceño (Tigers’ No. 3 prospect, No. 33 overall) likely knocking on Detroit’s door next year, Monday was no different. McGonigle is working at third base in the Arizona Fall League precisely to help his fit for a Detroit debut next season.

“I expect the players that posted dominant years in Double-A to factor into our big league team next year. They’ve earned it,” Harris said. “They posted incredible years as 20-year-olds, very young for the level. I expect their progress to continue, and I expect them to be in Detroit at some point next year.

Twins

• Top prospect, Kaelen Culpepper, added about 3 mph of bat speed.

Following his professional debut in 2024, Culpepper set out to get better. He worked to add bat speed, and according to a club official, he did just that — ticking his swing speed up by about three miles per hour. Then he maintained that throughout the season, and it showed in his results.

National League

Brewers

• Garrett Mitchell expects a normal Spring Training.

OF Garrett Mitchell
Injury: Left oblique, left shoulder
IL date: April 26 (transferred to 60-day IL on July 6)
Expected return: 2026
Status: Underwent surgery on July 1 and expects a relatively normal ramp-up to the start of Spring Training.

• Shelby Miller will miss all of the 2026 season.

RHP Shelby Miller
Injury: Right UCL sprain
IL date: Sept. 3 (60-day IL; retroactive to Sept. 2)
Expected return: Late 2026 or start of ’27
Status: Underwent surgery to repair the UCL and flexor tendon on Oct. 13 with Dr. Keith Meister and is likely to miss most or all of 2026. Will be a free agent after the World Series.

Diamondbacks

• Tyler Locklear will need surgery and will miss part of the 2026 season.

Locklear needs elbow and shoulder surgery this offseason after a collision at first base in September, and his recovery will likely force him to miss the start of next season.

Marlins

• Joe Mack made it to AAA and will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Mack, who turns 23 on Dec. 27, appears to be the catcher-in-waiting.

In 2025, Mack received an early-season promotion to Triple-A Jacksonville and helped the Jumbo Shrimp to their first national championship. In 99 games, he slashed .250/.320/.459 with 18 doubles, two triples, 18 homers and 53 RBIs.
…
Mack will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. As a result, he will receive an automatic invitation to big league camp this spring — his second straight appearance there. This time around, Mack should receive more reps than he got this year.

Nationals

• Josiah Gray will be healthy and ready for a full Spring Training after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Nationals decided to end Josiah Gray’s rehab and shut him down for the remainder of the season. The right-hander recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery will now begin his offseason program in preparation for next season instead of making one major league start before the season ends Sunday.

“I think the decision was made because he did his rehab, he was in good spirits, he was feeling good, he’s healthy. And now we want him to go home, relax and start (getting) ready for next season,” Cairo said. “Finally, he’s going to have a whole winter working to be prepared to show that he can pitch in the big leagues, that he can be with us. But he’s going to have a whole winter working out to get stronger and be healthy.”

In three rehab starts across three levels of the minor leagues, Gray allowed no runs over 6 ⅔ innings, with four hits, five walks and five strikeouts. He threw 45 pitches over 2⅔ scoreless and hitless innings while walking three and striking out two in his last start Friday night for Triple-A Rochester.

During Gray’s rehab process, the Nats were more focused on him staying healthy than his mechanics and results.

Hopefully, he found a way to throw strikes (career 4.3 BB/9 and 1.42 WHIP).

Padres

• The team may consider stretching out Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller as starters.

Preller didn’t commit to roles for either pitcher but left open the possibility of stretching one or both back out. “We’ll definitely get Mason’s thoughts and hear what he thinks is best. We’ll see how the offseason plays out, roster-wise. Then we’ll have some clear direction for him of what that looks like,” he said regarding Miller. Preller expressed a similar sentiment on Morejon. “(He’s) a lefty that’s throwing three plus pitches with command and the ability to use him in different places in the game. I think that’ll be a conversation as we get into it, similar to Mason, about what that looks like here for next year.”

Pirates

• MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf thinks Konnor Griffin will start the 2026 season in AAA and quickly work his way to the majors.

Based on conversations I had at the end of the season, I will hazard a guess that Griffin will start next year with Triple-A Indianapolis. If he performs well there, I don’t know how long he can be kept from Pittsburgh. The left side of the infield needs an upgrade. If the Pirates pick up a third baseman and have Jared Triolo start the year as the shortstop, there would be a very clear path for Griffin to reach the Majors.

Reds

• Late in the season was the first time Matt McLain started feeling 100% after having shoulder surgery.

McLain, 26, batted .220 with a .643 OPS in 147 games. He was often dropped to ninth in the lineup by the second half after opening the season batting second.

“Sometimes with shoulders and a year of development [lost], it’s just not as easy as you want,” Francona said.
….
“I do believe he’s just now starting to feel and be 100 percent. I think it’s a year-and-a-half-plus surgery to get back to full strength,” general manager Brad Meador said. “But he should have a full offseason. He should be able to have a good offseason. He knows he needs to have a good offseason. I think he’ll bounce back in a good way next year.”

First off, shoulder injuries can put a damper on a player’s season. Also, McLain didn’t show much improvement with a 76 wRC+ in the first half and 79 wRC+ in the second half. His power metric stayed the same from the first half to the second, while his contact rate dropped. I don’t buy that McLain is back in any way.

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

Astros

• The team signed Nate Pearson:

Nate Pearson to sign a 1-year deal with the Astros, per Chandler Rome.The team plans to use him as a starter.

— MLB Daily News (@fantasymlbnews.bsky.social) 2025-10-17T19:47:15.600Z

Read the rest of this entry »

Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

To get an idea of a player’s production when moving from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) and Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), I compiled a list of players who made the move and their MLB results. With the results, I compiled a list of comps to get a range of possible outcomes. We have several players coming over for their debut, but also returning arm trying to make an impact after 55 uneventful innings 2020-21.

Here they are:

Note: If I missed anyone to find the comps for, let me know. I’ll add them later to this article or possibly to Mining the News.

KBO: Hitters

Baek-ho Kang 강백호 (link)

He’ll need a full-time job to be worth a late-round pick. I’m a pass for now. Read the rest of this entry »