Fernando Tatis Jr. & Shoulder Surgeries
I tweeted out wanting to know who had shoulder surgeries similar to Fernando Tatis Jr. and it garnered many examples and opinions on the subject.
Hitters with a torn labrum in their shoulder (Tatis).
Jake Meyers ('21) – not back yet
Greg Bird ('16) – might have ended his career
Devin Mesoraco ('16)
Daric Barton ('11)
Posada ('08) – partial tear, back decent and then faded
Jesus Flores ('09) – career enderAny others?
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) January 29, 2023
All I wanted was the names of those who had the same or similar operations but got a lot more. With those comps, I hoped to get a range of potential outcomes. Well, I got them and whole lot more.
I know most people will already be anchored to an opinion that is probably based on already drafting or passing on Tatis in drafts or rostering him or not in a keeper league. For those with an open mind, here is what I think is the best information people gave me.
Background
First, Will Carroll wrote the following overview of the injury for Bleacher Report in 2014:
Why is surgery on the glenoid labrum still so difficult, even after a decade of medical advances and no shortage of pitchers to practice on? Simply put, the shoulder is more complex than something like the elbow. The elbow is a hinge and does more or less one thing in one way.
The shoulder does many more things and is put together with a seemingly endless network of muscles, ligaments, tendons, capsules, nerves and fascia. Dr. Neal ElAttrache once compared fixing a shoulder to trying to put together a puzzle without the box top.
And here are some statements from people I trust on why and how they think the labrum surgery will affect hitters.
There’s likely been many more than that.
Will he be a top 5 player? Probably not.
Is he still a top 100 player yes.
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) January 29, 2023
Busted shoulder = compromised power, every time
(Hitters or Pitchers)
— Doug Thorburn (@doug_thorburn) January 29, 2023
Upton, Sandoval, Hanley, among others. Rough track record. Hitters talk about losing extension in swings, and offensive approach can unravel as they fight to cover the same area.
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) January 29, 2023
The most popular opinion was from Giannis Auntiegotapoodle who thinks Tatis won’t have any issues because he’s special.
He might just be different posted a 157 wRC+ pic.twitter.com/3twFEx4rhr
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) January 29, 2023
The issue is that the surgery and the scarring from it are the issues, not so much the tear.
The surgery itself can create scarring that affects the movement of the joint. The shoulder will also move differently. I’m not counting on him coming back at 100%, though he could.
— Matt Cederholm (@TheBigHurtHQ) January 29, 2023
So enough on the background. It’s time to get to what I wanted to look into, historic results. I got many responses for hitters who had surgery. In the end, I grouped them into three groups.
- Those who had surgery for a torn labrum and had a chance to play after the surgery. I excluded Jorge Posada because he had the surgery at age 36 and was the only example of someone in their thirties who had the operation.
- Those who had the surgery, but haven’t had a chance to play or didn’t play at the same level (minor or major league) for two straight seasons. Most of these are guys in the minors. They are Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Conforto, Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones, and Corbin Carroll.
- Those who had a non-labrum shoulder surgery or I couldn’t find out the exact type of surgery.
To start with, here are all the hitters in group #1 with Tatis and the average deduction added to his wRC+.
| Name | Year | Desc | Shoulder | Age | Bats | wRC+ 2Y Before | wRC+ 2Y after | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Meyers | 2021 | surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder | L | 25 | R | 109 | 65 | -44 |
| Greg Bird | 2015 | undergo a procedure on Tuesday to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder | L | 22 | R | 138 | 84 | -54 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 2016 | complete posterior tear of the labrum | L | 28 | R | 23 | 90 | 67 |
| Daric Barton | 2011 | torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder | R | 25 | L | 110 | 96 | -14 |
| Jesus Flores | 2009 | shoulder injury that turned into a torn labrum | R | 24 | R | 92 | 49 | -43 |
| Justin Upton | 2009 | surgery to fix a labrum tear in his left shoulder | L | 22 | R | 120 | 126 | 6 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 2016 | successful shoulder surgery repair a torn labrum in his left | L | 29 | B | 74 | 61 | -13 |
| Josh Jung (AAA) | 2021 | surgery Wednesday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder | L | 24 | R | 166 | 104 | -62 |
| Matt Kemp | 2012 | tear of the labrum and some minor damage to the rotator cuff | L | 27 | R | 159 | 129 | -30 |
| Avisaíl García | 2014 | repaired a torn labrum and avulsion fracture in Garcia’s left shoulder | L | 23 | R | 99 | 87 | -12 |
| Nick Senzel | 2019 | torn labrum in his right shoulder surgery | R | 24 | R | 87 | 64 | -23 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 2010 | 2010 shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder | R | 28 | L | 149 | 136 | -13 |
| Miguel Andújar | 2019 | Andujar has elected for right shoulder labrum repair surgery | R | 24 | R | 117 | 79 | -38 |
| Median = | 24.0 | Median = | -23 | |||||
| Average = | 25.0 | Average = | -21 | |||||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2022 | surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder | L | 23 | R | 155 | 133 | -22 |
Only two guys saw an increase in projection so the overall talent level points downward. For some hitters, a 20-point drop in wRC+ would be career-ending but not so for Tatis. His projections and results have his talent near a 160 wRC+. Assuming an average drop, he should now be in the 140 wRC+ range. This takes him from being in the game’s best hitter discussion to the 12th or so best hitter. Some hitters with a THE BAT X projection around 140 wRC+ are Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Julio Rodríguez, and Corey Seager.
It’s a good deal that he has a labrum tear because the guys who had other shoulder surgeries performed much worse once returning.
| Name | Season | Injury | wRC+ 2Y Before | wRC+ 2Y after | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 2021 | repair a subluxation in his left shoulder | 108 | 90 | -18 |
| Gregory Polanco | 2018 | stabilize an acute left shoulder dislocation | 105 | 63 | -42 |
| Dominic Smith | 2021 | partially torn labrum, no surgery | 109 | 67 | -42 |
| Cody Bellinger | 2020 | arthroscopic labrum surgery he underwent on his right shoulder | 148 | 69 | -79 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 2009 | left shoulder arthroscopy and debridement | 146 | 115 | -31 |
| Austin Kearns | 2003 | season-ending rotator cuff surgery | 128 | 99 | -29 |
| Median = | -37 | ||||
| Average = | -40 |
All those guys headed downhill with a 40-point average drop in wRC+. Any hitter with shoulder surgery should be a major red flag.
The two big prospects who recently had the surgery are Carroll and Lawler — tough for Arizona. Carroll performed fine last season but it’s impossible to know if he could have been great if he didn’t have to have the surgery. As for Lawlar, it’s possible his hype might need to be dampened a few notches as he returns.
That is all I got to regurgitate on the subject. As I stated earlier, many are already on the two extreme sides of the argument (“he’s done for” vs “everything is great”). For those wanting an answer based on historical examples, he’ll likely not meet previous expectations but still be a damn good hitter.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
God I hope Padres fans don’t find this article
Thanks for doing all the dirty work Jeff. Appreciate it
I’m pretty sure they will find it. I’ll roll with the facts.
You seem to be conveniently ignoring some facts.
Why would it be “convenient”? I doubt he wants him to do poorly.
I will enjoy quote tweeting this piece when tatis puts up a 155 wRC+ this next year. I like how you are just ignoring that he put up a mvp contending season already with a hurt shoulder
We read the article so you don’t have to.
“The surgery itself can create scarring that affects the movement of the joint. The shoulder will also move differently.”
You could’ve just said you didn’t read the article, didn’t need to make yourself look so silly in the process
To be fair the guy might have been juiced to the gills that season too.
Anyone have the source where the author learned Tatis had a torn labrum? He had multiple subluxations, but I must have missed the tear part.
Also, does anyone know where Dr Zimmerman went to med school?
https://bfy.tw/TnUO 😏
I can sense the fear in your comment
Triple bad for Arizona—Druw Jones, along with Carroll and Lawler. Is there something in the dry heat?
Wait…..Druw Jones got hurt? Man I’m out of the loop.
Yeah, in his first batting session with the D-Backs
Fantastically researched article
Wow, that is a staggeringly bad track record. The caveat is there’s not THAT many data points but for the ones you have it is a wasteland. I’d be very wary of low bids on Bellinger or Dom Smith this year. Really really good info.
Group one’s biggest drops are from guys who didn’t even have a full season of ABs before their surgery. Only somewhat comparable in age and talent is Upton. Here’s hoping he comes back just as good or better.
Totally follow the arguments. No getting around that reality. There is uncertainty and bad history in coming back from this type of injury. None of those guys are Tatis level talents. That has to be recognized.
I don’t get this argument that’s been made twice now. Bellinger, Hanley, Upton, Kemp and Gonzalez at a minimum were all super talented all-star level players. Bellinger was an mvp and Kemp and Hanley were runners up. Upton and Gonzalez both had Top 5 mvp finishes. Several of the other players (smith, bird, kearns, mesoraco, polanco, andujar, jung) were also well regarded prospects, and who knows what their careers might have looked like had they not been injured.
Tatis is an insanely talented player. Maybe more so than any of those guys, but it’s not like this is a list of scrubs. And not for nothing, but we also don’t know to what level PEDs have improved Tatis’ “talent.”
It isn’t the thrust of your comment, but that kind of speculation is really unfair. He looks like a clown for the positive test and his response to it but absolutely nothing suggests his on-field work has been PED-augmented. Helping injury recovery is one of the “best” uses of anabolic steroids.
What is unfair about that? And how could you say there’s no indication that PEDs helped his performance? I don’t think we can know one way or the other if they did. We don’t know when and how long he took them and it’s basically impossible to say what, if anything, in his performance would have benefitted. But just as I can’t say PEDs definitely helped, I don’t think anyone can definitively say they did not.
You know, I might add Jason Heyward to that list. It feels like his career was completely derailed following his promising rookie season. While he never had surgery that I can recall, I remember vague reports of back problems and you could tell that his swing just never had the same power of his rookie season.
You forgot to account for typical age related declines in wRC+ that all players see over two years (on average)
From their age 24-26 seasons? 🥴 Jeff clearly highlighted that as their median and nearly average age.
Jeez. This Giants fan is now a lot less excited about the Conforto signing.
Conforto tore his capsule and the labrum w bone bruise while having a breakout season with NY Mets in 2017. That’s a totally different surgery. Big difference in his game since; by all metrics, even an absurd BABIP fueled 2020, he is not the same player. And then winter 2021 happened; and we know even less.
The numbers don’t back up this story, necessarily. He hit .220/.310 /.414 in 2016, then hit 61 bombs from 2018-2019, with 6.3 WAR over those two years. 2019, in particular, was a pretty good year for an injured guy: 90 Runs, 92 RBI 33 jacks, 29 2bs, 84 Walks.
It kinda looks more like a guy who recovered well from his injury. You’re right though, there is much more uncertainty this time around.
So Druw Jones might not be the way to go in a FYPD. Maybe draft and trade for multiple assets
Given how well Tatis played with the injury, and given the track record of the “fix”, you have to wonder why even have the surgery? It should be noted that Tatis did not want the surgery, and supposedly caved to the Padres after the whole PED thing. It feels like there is more info that we are not aware of, like perhaps the surgery was minor relative to what we think of when we hear labrum surgery? The fact that Tatis received an all clear in about 4 months seems fast too, what is the normal recovery time?
As someone who has a torn labrum and decided against surgery due to range of motion trade-offs, I’d imagine he was in pain often. I can play sports but my upper back on the left side often feels like hell due to the tear. I can sleep wrong for 10 minutes and be toast for a week. Bet the surgery stops that.
Labrum surgery is many different things. The anterior labrum is torn in dislocations and requires ligament repair or capsulorraphy pleating. The superior labrum is torn by overhead motions and may involve biceps repair. The posterior labrum is something else. Associated bone injury, if any, must be addressed. Without knowing exactly the operative report, you are comparing different things…and just guessing
Jeff Bagwell is another victim. He had surgery on his right labrum following the 2001 season, and he was never the same after. He could still hit for power, but he was unable to throw the baseball. Bagwell also dealt with chronic arthritis in his shoulder.
Additional issues in the same shoulder would force him into retirement in 2005.
Ok fellas looking for some help, with the 14th pick (16 team league) is tatis worth it or am i better going for bichette
I had shoulder labrum repair surgery. It would be difficult to express in words how much this surgery helped me, I could not sleep beforehand due to constant pain in bed.
One surprising aspect of that ordeal was discovering just how little we use our shoulder joint. When your hands are in what I call “the work zone,” which is about a foot in front of your belly, the muscles around your shoulders lock the joint so that it does not move much at all, and the labrum is not loaded. Even when the injury was at its worst, I could do things in the work zone pain free.
I’ve been sitting here swinging my arms like I would a bat, and I notice that my hands stay pretty close to the work zone, so I guess I am a bit dubious that shoulder labrum repair has such a profound effect on swinging a bat. That being said, it is a ridiculous amount of pain and struggle to get full range of motion back, more than I could manage. If Tatis is as dedicated to his career as his words suggest – as opposed to his life choices! – I think a full recovery is possible.
Between labrum surgery and PED suspension questions, I don’t want any shares of Tatis next year. He might be his usual insanely good self! But I’d much rather take other extremely good hitters with not near as many questions around them, and I really doubt he’d drop enough to make it worth it.
I don’t believe most of the previous players cited had the same injury. Tatis was still able to play with his shoulder in the condition it was in, and play at such level that he was arguably the best player in the game. This surgery was essentially elective, and was opted for simply because he had the down time to recover during his suspension. I think he’ll be the best player in baseball over the next decade, and I’ll gladly shout it from the rooftops.
Why is Bellinger in the “other surgery” group?
I also wouldn’t overlook the fact that Tatís fractured his scaphoid in one of his motorcycle spills, didn’t realize it was broken (not uncommon) or consult with his team (more uncommon), and thus didn’t have surgery on it until three months later. However, there were enough concerns about the long-term viability of the repair that, seven months later—after he’d begun his rehab assignment and gotten suspended—he had a second surgery on the wrist, to replace the hardware from surgery #1 with a single, stabilizing screw. The scaphoid bone gets poor blood flow, which makes healing tricky, and its location near the base of the thumb affects things like grip strength and range of motion of the wrist. I’m fine waiting a year to see how well he recovers—i.e. no FOMO (and I’d take the under on his projections).