Fernando Tatis Jr. & Shoulder Surgeries

I tweeted out wanting to know who had shoulder surgeries similar to Fernando Tatis Jr. and it garnered many examples and opinions on the subject.

Hitters with a torn labrum in their shoulder (Tatis).

Jake Meyers ('21) – not back yet
Greg Bird ('16) – might have ended his career
Devin Mesoraco ('16)
Daric Barton ('11)
Posada ('08) – partial tear, back decent and then faded
Jesus Flores ('09) – career ender

Any others?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) January 29, 2023

All I wanted was the names of those who had the same or similar operations but got a lot more. With those comps, I hoped to get a range of potential outcomes. Well, I got them and whole lot more.

I know most people will already be anchored to an opinion that is probably based on already drafting or passing on Tatis in drafts or rostering him or not in a keeper league. For those with an open mind, here is what I think is the best information people gave me.

Background

First, Will Carroll wrote the following overview of the injury for Bleacher Report in 2014:

Why is surgery on the glenoid labrum still so difficult, even after a decade of medical advances and no shortage of pitchers to practice on? Simply put, the shoulder is more complex than something like the elbow. The elbow is a hinge and does more or less one thing in one way.

The shoulder does many more things and is put together with a seemingly endless network of muscles, ligaments, tendons, capsules, nerves and fascia. Dr. Neal ElAttrache once compared fixing a shoulder to trying to put together a puzzle without the box top.

And here are some statements from people I trust on why and how they think the labrum surgery will affect hitters.

There’s likely been many more than that.

Will he be a top 5 player? Probably not.

Is he still a top 100 player yes.

— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) January 29, 2023

Busted shoulder = compromised power, every time

(Hitters or Pitchers)

— Doug Thorburn (@doug_thorburn) January 29, 2023

Upton, Sandoval, Hanley, among others. Rough track record. Hitters talk about losing extension in swings, and offensive approach can unravel as they fight to cover the same area.

— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) January 29, 2023

The most popular opinion was from Giannis Auntiegotapoodle who thinks Tatis won’t have any issues because he’s special.

He might just be different posted a 157 wRC+ pic.twitter.com/3twFEx4rhr

— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) January 29, 2023

The issue is that the surgery and the scarring from it are the issues, not so much the tear.

The surgery itself can create scarring that affects the movement of the joint. The shoulder will also move differently. I’m not counting on him coming back at 100%, though he could.

— Matt Cederholm (@TheBigHurtHQ) January 29, 2023

So enough on the background. It’s time to get to what I wanted to look into, historic results. I got many responses for hitters who had surgery. In the end, I grouped them into three groups.

1. Those who had surgery for a torn labrum and had a chance to play after the surgery. I excluded Jorge Posada because he had the surgery at age 36 and was the only example of someone in their thirties who had the operation.
2. Those who had the surgery, but haven’t had a chance to play or didn’t play at the same level (minor or major league) for two straight seasons. Most of these are guys in the minors. They are Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Conforto, Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones, and Corbin Carroll.
3. Those who had a non-labrum shoulder surgery or I couldn’t find out the exact type of surgery.

To start with, here are all the hitters in group #1 with Tatis and the average deduction added to his wRC+.

Only two guys saw an increase in projection so the overall talent level points downward. For some hitters, a 20-point drop in wRC+ would be career-ending but not so for Tatis. His projections and results have his talent near a 160 wRC+.  Assuming an average drop, he should now be in the 140 wRC+ range. This takes him from being in the game’s best hitter discussion to the 12th or so best hitter. Some hitters with a THE BAT X projection around 140 wRC+ are Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Julio Rodríguez, and Corey Seager.

It’s a good deal that he has a labrum tear because the guys who had other shoulder surgeries performed much worse once returning.

All those guys headed downhill with a 40-point average drop in wRC+. Any hitter with shoulder surgery should be a major red flag.

The two big prospects who recently had the surgery are Carroll and Lawler — tough for Arizona. Carroll performed fine last season but it’s impossible to know if he could have been great if he didn’t have to have the surgery. As for Lawlar, it’s possible his hype might need to be dampened a few notches as he returns.

That is all I got to regurgitate on the subject. As I stated earlier, many are already on the two extreme sides of the argument (“he’s done for” vs “everything is great”). For those wanting an answer based on historical examples, he’ll likely not meet previous expectations but still be a damn good hitter.