Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Schwarber, Thames, & Much More

Time to talk a little Kyle Schwarber

I touched on it yesterday, but Schwarber’s fantasy value is going to fluctuate a ton depending on each league’s settings. In all my keeper leagues, he is getting the Utility tag because he didn’t make the minimum five games played last year (just two games in the outfield). I can’t emphasize enough, know your league settings. Most leagues require five starts until a player is eligible at a position, so I see him getting outfield eligibility the first or second week depending on the schedule and weather.

For him to get the five games at catcher to gain eligibility, let me say I am skeptical of him catching just one game, let alone five. Just to make sure I wasn’t off kilter, at least on this subject, I ask my Twitter followers when they thought he would reach the five games.

Kyle Schwarber will have started 5 games at catcher closest to?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) December 16, 2016

Most voters think he will never reach the five games, but ~60% [looks to have dropped since I wrote the math and I am not redoing the math] think he will be eligible by July 1st. Maybe the best bet is to give him a value of 66% outfielder and 33% catcher. Just eyeballing some values from our auction calculator, it seems like he would be worth $30 as a catcher and $13 as an outfielder. This would put an auction price of $18.5. The premium will depend on the league settings, but I would start valuing him as an outfielder and adjust the catching bonus from there.

The second aspect of Schwarber’s game which is in flux is he could end up as the Cubs leadoff hitter.

Cubs manager Joe Maddon mentioned Schwarber as a possibility to lead off when he met with reporters at the Winter Meetings last week.

“Schwarber is not a bad name,” Maddon said. “Kyle is not a bad name at all. … Actually, a couple years ago, I considered leading Kyle off and putting Dexter second. But all our nerds did all the work and they really liked Fowler one and liked Schwarber two, just based on the data, so I went with that and it worked out well. Now, all of the sudden, Dexter is not there anymore. It’s not impossible to consider Kyle in that spot.”

This move would hurt his potential RBI production compared to hitting in one of the other top five spots. Here’s the average NL production from each lineup spot compared to the average value.

Currently, our depth charts have him likely batting second with a 76 Run – 73 RBI split. The value should be closer to probably 80-65 if hitting leadoff.

Maybe it is too much effort to evaluate Schwarber correctly. I could understand if an owner uses their time more efficiently and they plan on just ignoring him on draft day. My problem would be with an owner who just wings his value and goes with the Average Draft Position (ADP). The problem is that others, who also had no idea of his value, are using the same ADP and probably also overpaying. Either get a value or just stay away.

Starting an Eric Thames Projection

I was asked yesterday where I would value the Brewers’ Eric Thames.

A good question in which I didn’t have a good answer. Let me see if I can come up with one. I will use our Depth Charts and this twitter thread from Eno on Thames’s MLE’s for starting points.

The average triple slash line is about the same as Nelson Cruz’s three-year average (.286/.354/.549). The Depth Chart projection puts him at the catcher level production like Jason Castro’s three-year slash line of (.215/.291/.369). Right now at Fantrax, Thames’s ADP is 609 which is near Jake Marisnick, Michael Bourn, and Aaron Hill. He should be going before these three just on the breakout potential.

Note: On an actual projection for HR, RBI, and Runs, I have near the top of my to do list to get a triple slash converter created to get an idea of a player’s potential fantasy stats.

I will value Thames between Castro and Cruz. Looking over the first basemen, I would place him after Brandon Belt but before C.J. Cron using Fantrax’s ADP. This puts him as the 21st rated first basemen and an ADP around 200 or the 16th to the 17th round. In the mock draft I did with Lindy’s magazine, he went in 17th round with the 196 pick. I think this is a good start on his value and will see if I need to adjust it more later.

Notes

• MLB.com’s Adam Berry sees Juan Nicasio relief outings going multiple innings in 2017.

The Pirates have touted Nicasio’s versatility since they acquired him last offseason, and I think his best role is one in which they can fully capitalize on that. In other words, the way they used him late last season — not as a traditional setup man, but as a swingman, a lower-profile Andrew Miller who enters high-leverage situations and pitches multiple innings.

I am going to go through some “ifs” so hold on. If he can go the extra innings and get 85 IP and if he can maintain his 12 K/9 he had last season as a reliever, he would have 113 strikeouts as a relief pitcher. This total is more than three qualified starters and his rate stats would be much better. In deep leagues, I will be owning him on draft day. Huge potential.

• Jedd Gyorko, who had 30 home runs last year, will start the season as the Cardinals infield utility man.

The Cards have indicated that Peralta will enter Spring Training atop the depth chart at third base. But that’s always subject to change. If Peralta does not arrive in optimal shape or is slow to get going once the regular season starts, the club won’t hesitate to insert Gyorko. I would imagine the Cards will try to get as much production as they can out of Peralta early in the year with the expectation that they’ll get Gyorko more involved when/if Peralta fades as the season deepens.

If Wong struggles again and the Cardinals are in playoff contention, I could see Gyorko take his spot also.

• The Rangers have three options for the first base and designated hitter positions: Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, and Ryan Rua. Each player has their warts but if one of the trio is able to lock down a job, they have real value. Here are their current ADP’s from Frantrax.com.

Name: ADP (draft%)
Profar: 366 (87%)
Gallo: 368 (87%)
Rua: 460 (80%)

It seems like potential owners are currently staying away from the situation.

I will probably take the following approach with them. In a shallow league, I would grab Gallo right before the reserve players are taken. I am willing to replace him if he doesn’t work out. He has the potential for 50 home runs and I need to take the chance he may get them. I would then grab the other two late with a bench spot.

• In deeper leagues, I may try to pair up Freddy Galvis and J.P. Crawford. Galvis just came off a career season and Crawford will spend some time in the minors to game his service time. When Crawford gets his major league call-up is unknown, but Galvis can be an OK handcuff until then.

• Looks like Luis Severino will get one more chance to make the Yankees starting rotation. I still think his future is in the bullpen but I understand why the Yankees want to give him another shot at starting.

• Hyun Soo Kim could end up being the Orioles lead off hitter.

Could Kim be a solution to the Orioles’ leadoff-man hole?

“He’s got [the] statistical skills,” Showalter said.

“I think we’re seeing the evolution of a lot of things, as we viewed them growing up. So what’s the most important attribute of a leadoff guy? Only leading off one time per game, once, and we put so much on this. So I guess it’s on-base percentage.”

• The Astros are looking to move Christopher Devenski back to the rotation.

As the Astros look ahead to 2017, they plan to give Devenski a look in the rotation this spring, while remaining open to keeping him in long relief, where he was valuable last season.

Manager A.J. Hinch said during the Winter Meetings that the club plans to stretch Devenski out as a starter in Spring Training. Hinch said the Astros want Devenski stretched out to at least four innings before making a decision about his future.