The Format Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Tout Wars Congratulations

Strategy Section

• Drafting Strategy based on fantasy format
  • Rotisserie leagues vs. Head-to-Head Points leagues vs. Head-to-Head Category leagues
    • One win vs. full category score
  • Waiver wire leagues vs. Draft Champion/Draft & Hold Leagues
  • Roto leagues vs. Best ball leagues
  • Trading leagues vs. non-trading leagues
  • Deeper leagues vs. shallow leagues
  • 1-Catcher leagues vs. 2-Catcher leagues
  • Large vs. small bench size
    • Having IL slots vs. no IL slots
  • Daily lineups vs. weekly lineups
    • How to best use Shohei Ohtani
  • Overall competition vs. standalone leagues

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Healing Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ron Shandler

LABR Congratulations

Strategy Section

• Dealing with the current injury frequency level in baseball
  • Roster construction
  • Risk management
    • Broad Assesment Balance Sheet (BABS)
  • Reasons for injury frequency by team
  • Risk-adjusted pricing vs. managing to a risk budget
  • First round picks
    • Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Ronald Acuna Jr.
• How to think about Binary Risk
  • Jacob deGrom
• Playing fantay against “Power Drafters” who take on more risk
• Is the market still right to draft risky elite starting pitching?
• Is the market overpricing stable closers in early drafts?
• How to value prospects in drafts?
  • Bobby Witt Jr.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

If you haven’t studied the managers who won your league by now, you should. If you won your league, and your competition is smart, you’re being studied. People are trying to find out why the Robbie Ray‘s and the Marcus Semien’s of 2021 caught the eye of those who drafted them and are looking to find next season’s doppelgangers. The Dodgers didn’t take long at all to take their pick. We can make all the models, algorithms, spreadsheets, and crystal ball readings we like, but the most tried and true technique is regression. Players that were unbelievably good…will regress to their true-talent level. Players that were unexpectedly bad…will regress to their true-talent level. This is something you can take to the bank. Rather than choose from 15 of the best players we should take in the first round, let’s think of players that we expect to go in the 5th and 6th rounds. Here’s a look at three players that seem likely to do just that, and could fly under the radar in your 2022 draft.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pre-Season Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

The focus of this podcast is on fantasy baseball strategy.

Today, we look back at the topics and highlights of our pre-season coverage. We give a preview of what you can look forward to on the show in the coming months.

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

Strategy Section

• Snake Draft
  • General Strategy & Method
  • Strategy differences between shallow & deeper formats
  • Early observations of 2021 drafts

RotoBaller Mock Draft

• Setting the statge – Rules & Format
• Live Draft !!!
  • Draft Board: https://rtsports.com/rotoballer
• Draft Recap

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Catcher & Utility-Only Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ryan Bloomfield

Strategy Section

• Catchers
  • How to account for Positional Scarcity with Catchers
  • Differences between 1-Catcher Leagues and 2-Catcher Leagues
  • Streaming Catchers
  • Is J.T. Realmuto worth his current draft price?
• Utility-Only Players
  • Are Utility-Only players undervalued in drafts?
  • “Clogging the Utility Slot”
  • Utility-Only players to gain positional eligibility
    • Marcell Ozuna
    • Colin Moran

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The NFBC & Outfielder Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Matt Modica

Strategy Section

• NFBC
  • Differences between NFBC (High stakes) vs. Home Leagues
  • Standalone Leagues vs. Leagues with an Overall Prize
  • NFBC Specific Rules
    • Limited Bench
    • No Injured List
    • No Trading
    • Semi-Weekly Lineups for Hitters
  • Are Multi-Position Eligible players more valuable?
  • Pitching is greatly pushed up in NFBC leagues
    • Is it warranted?
    • Should you follow the crowd, or alter your strategy to zag?
    • Should a super elite pitcher (deGrom/Cole) be taken #1 overall?
  • NFBC Draft Planning
  • KDS

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

On Tuesday night, the competitors of the LABR Mixed drafted virtually congregated for our annual early/mid-February 15-team draft. Drafts this early are tough, because although in some respects it benefits the prepared and the more highly skilled, there are also many unknowns at this point of the offseason, that once known, could alter a player’s or multiple players’ values, perhaps significantly. In addition, all this additional time between the draft and opening day means more opportunity for injuries to decimate your roster before the season begins! So as a result, and although I’m not sure if this is even mathematically possible, it feels like the early draft time requires both more skill and more luck. Anyway, let’s get to the draft results. The full draft could be found here.

Read the rest of this entry »

2/17/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer
• @JoePisapia17 – Guest

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Introduction

Previously, I looked at the largest auction player bargains of 2020. These were the players who were highly profitable after considering their opportunity cost of acquisition. Value should always be considered relative to cost.

We defined the bargain amount as:

$Bargain = $Value – $AAV

We defined $Value as the accumulated 5×5 full season rotisserie value of each player, and $AAV as the average auction cost to purchase the player pre-season. We made use of the July NFBC Average Auction Values, which was one of the best sources of “market” data this year.

Whereas I previously looked at the players who generated the most excess value in 2020, today’s attention will be directed to what I refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest “rip-offs” of the season – i.e., the players who earned the most negative profits for fantasy owners on a full season basis (net of their auction price).

Prior to unveiling 2020’s most unprofitable players, it is important to discuss one additional step in the analysis – the capping of values. I have previously spoken about this concept, but I will touch on it again today.

Eduardo Rodriguez was a player that I drafted on a few of my fantasy rosters this season. His NFBC average auction value during July drafts (auctions) was $7. In Tout Wars, I acquired the Boston pitcher for $10. Unfortunately, Rodriguez came down with COVID-19. He developed heart complications due to the virus, and consequently did not pitch a single inning in 2020.

The question is – what value did Rodriguez accumulate in 2020? What damage did he cost to your team’s aggregate value? Owners certainly lost their original investment on him, but how much more were they penalized? He wouldn’t have made it to one’s active roster – but how much did it cost owners for Eduardo taking up a bench spot?

Read the rest of this entry »