The A.L. Closer Report: 5/20

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

That’s the Mo we know: since giving up 2 taters to the Rays on May 7th, Rivera has tossed 5 scoreless innings, with 5 K’s and one walk. His K/BB ratio is a sparkling 22/1 in 16.1 innings of work, and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, which roots out Rivera’s misfortune on flyballs so far-his HR/FB% is 28.6) comes in at 2.04 (which bests last season’s 2.13). In fact, his XFIP has gone down each season since 2006. You get the feeling that he could do this forever, no?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Even with his control departing him at times (10 walks in 18 IP), Papelbon has managed to rack up 11 saves in 11 chances. He’s not garnering the same number of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone to this point (26.3 Outside Swing%, compared to a 30.7 career average), as hitters appear content to try and draw a walk rather than tussling with Papelbon’s mid 90’s heat, slider or splitter.

Kerry Wood, Indians

8.5 games back in a lackadaisical AL Central Division, the Indians continue to burn whatever leads they hold in the late innings. The ‘pen ranks 29th in team WPA and FIP. Wood, coming off a nice season in Wrigleyville (2.32 FIP, 4.67 K/BB ratio) has been the most egregious arsonist, with a -1.08 WPA. His BABIP (.391) and HR/FB rate (25%) are wacky-high, but he’s done himself no favors with 7 walks in 13 innings. The 31 year-old is fresh off his worst appearance of the season: a four-run, two-homer debacle against the Royals last night. Here’s Wood’s woeful evening, in graphical form:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got into just one game this week, surrendering 3 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work against the Blue Jays on the 17th. On the plus side, his pitches within the strike zone haven’t been easily hit: opponents have made contact with 81.6% of his offerings in the zone, compared to 93.1% last season. His overall contact rate is down nine percent from 2008.

Joe Nathan, Twins

After reeling off 7 scoreless innings to begin the month of May, Nathan was surprisingly torched by the Yankees as part of the walkoff week extravaganza in the Bronx (3 hits, 3 R, 2 BB in 0.2 IP). Nathan hasn’t quite been his stellar self thus far, with a 3.95 FIP and his lowest K/BB ratio (3.00) since his last year with San Francisco in 2003. His overall contact rate (76.8%) is the highest we have on record going back to 2002 (his average from ’02 to the present is 71.3%).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler hasn’t had many save chances, what with the A’s being clobbered on a nightly basis in the month of May (Oakland’s run differential now sits at negative 27 for the year). Still, the submarine righty will want to pick up his sinking performance if he wants to hold off Bailey: Ziegler his let 6 runs score on his watch this month in 6 IP.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on DL with biceps tendinitis)

Francisco will be back soon, but Wilson will take whatever save ops arise until baseball’s WPA leader comes off the DL. It’s just plain hard to trust C.J. in the later innings: his whiff rate has gone down each season since 2006 (from 8.73 that season down to 5.51 in 2009), and it isn’t as though he’s painting the corners: his walk rate is near five. Just 42.8% of Wilson’s pitches have been within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes’ ERA sits at a lukewarm 4.61, but that’s because hits have fallen in against him at an absurd clip (.417 BABIP). His FIP (3.12) and strikeout rate (12.51 per nine innings) tell more of the story here. Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run since May 4th. Try to buy low if you still can.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan might be back, but Downs doesn’t much care: he just continues to mow down batters. Downs racked up 2 saves and 3 scoreless innings this week, taking his K/BB ratio to an obscene 22/2 in 19.1 innings. Downs was never really known for possessing razor-sharp command (his career BB/9 is 3.42), and he’s still not really pounding the zone. Just 45.7% of his pitches have been within the zone, but hitters are going hog-wild chasing his sinker and sweeping curve out off the plate and in the dirt (35.5 Outside Swing%, 6th among all relievers).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney tossed three scoreless frames this week, though none came in a save situation. His K/BB sits at 11/4 in 16 innings. Zumaya, meanwhile, checks in at an uncharacteristic 7/0 in 11.1 innings. Zumaya has actually placed 57.8% of his offerings in the strike zone so far (51.9% career average). It’s Rodney’s job for now, but Detroit could be tempted to make a change if Rodney slips up.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz will get the save ops in Soria’s absence, but he hasn’t gotten to convert one since April 30th. The string-bean righty’s 1.45 ERA is rather misleading: he’s missed just 13 bats in 18.2 innings, while issuing 10 free passes. A .131 BABIP has greatly helped Cruz’s cause. His Outside Swing%, 30.1 in 2008, is down to 19.7% in 2009.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, converting a save chance against the Royals on the 16th. His control has been characteristically bumpy (7 BB in 15.2 IP), but he is at least garnering his highest Outside Swing% since 2005 (28.4% in ’09).

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Morrow sorrow: The former first-rounder out of Cal is banished to middle relief, though manager Don Wakamatsu says it’s just a temporary move. Still, the 24 year-old will want to pick it up: Morrow has 8 runs on his May ledger in just 3.2 innings, with 3 homers allowed.

Aardsma, meanwhile, will get the call for the time being. He’s not exactly a lock-down option, either: punching out over a batter per inning is great, but walking 5.79 per nine is a good way to give your manager an ulcer. Aardsma has eschewed his secondary pitches this season, throwing a fastball 89% of the time.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival was torched for 4 runs and two dingers against the O’s on the 13th, and has since worked two quiet innings against the Indians (May 15th and the 17th). The 39 year-old is putting himself in the hole from the get-go: his 41.7 First Pitch Strike% ranks just ahead of Horacio Ramirez. That’s not the sort of company that a closer would like to keep.