The A.L. Closer Report: 6/3

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo was two-for-two in save chances this past week, slamming the door on Cleveland on May 29th and June 1st. Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at an absurd 26/1, and he’s climbing up the WPA leader board (15th at the moment, despite an inflated .313 BABIP and 27.8 HR/FB rate).

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner returns, and not a moment too soon for Kansas City fans, whose faces turned royal blue while watching Juan Cruz back himself into a corner on a nightly basis. Soria’s shoulder bears close monitoring, but he returns to a line that includes a 2.24 FIP and 10 K’s in 8.2 innings.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan was a busy man this week, logging three saves against three different opponents (Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland). He struck out 4 batters in 3.1 frames, and he hasn’t surrendered a run since May 15th ( a stretch of six innings). His K/BB ratio is back up to a sterling 4.40, and he’s tossing a first pitch strike 66.3% of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Uncharacteristically wild to begin the year, Papelbon allayed some panic-stricken Sox faithful with 4 K’s and no free passes in 2 innings this past week. If Papelbon can hit his spots more consistently, his career-low 46.1 opponent Swing% will increase.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks picked up two saves against the scuffling Royals on May 30th and 31st. He’s throwing his fastball nearly 2 MPH faster than last season (95.3 MPH, compared to 93.8 in ’08), but with less effectiveness (-0.66 runs per 100 pitches; +1.55 in 2008). Conversely, his slider (+3.59 per 100 pitches) and curveball (+4.19) are giving batters fits.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco collected a save on May 29th, before suffering his first loss of the season on the 31st while finally giving up a run. Frank’s scoreless appearances streak reached 17 before the A’s got to him, and his K/BB ratio sits at 19/5 for the year. His mid-80’s splitter has been a devastating pitch, with a run value of +4.67 per 100 pitches for the season.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a W against the Rays on May 28th and a save versus the Yankees on the 31st. Woody was wild early on, but he has issued only 1 walk in his last 4 innings. That’s not some world-beating stretch, but it certainly bests his 5-walk, two inning streak from May 17th to the 20th. Wood’s WPA sits at -0.33 for the season.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs blew a save versus the O’s on May 27th, but he recovered to notch two against Boston on the 29th and 30th. He’s done an excellent job in getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate, with a 33.3 Outside-Swing% (24.5% MLB average). That helps explain how Downs has a microscopic walk rate (0.78 BB/9) despite locating just 45.1% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney hasn’t allowed a run to cross home plate on his watch since May 10th, a streak of 9 innings in which he has racked up 4 saves while issuing just two walks. Unable to hit the broad side of a barn in 2008 (6.69 BB/9), Rodney has issued 2.57 BB/9 in ’09 while generating groundballs at a 54.2% clip. His fastball, long thrown with plus velocity but little effectiveness (-0.45 runs per 100 pitches during his career), has been worth +2.09 runs per 100 tosses this season. His nasty changeup/splitter checks in at +2.89 per 100 pitches to boot.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was generally effective during the month of May (converting 8 saves), but he ended on a sour note with a 3-run, 3-hit blown save against Seattle on the 30th. He’s whiffing 9.16 hitters per nine with 2.89 BB/9, but a .373 BABIP has put a damper on Fuentes’ numbers. There are some concerning signs, though: his 80.7% contact rate is over 5 percent higher than any other season we have dating back to 2002, and his sweeping curveball has been lacking. The pitch was worth +6.27 runs per 100 pitches in 2007, -1.79 in 2008 and -2.70 this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Streaking Sherrill: Baltimore’s stopper is sad to see the calendar flip to June, as he went on a May tear. The 32 year-old southpaw allowed just a single run in 11 frames, and he’s currently on an 11-inning scoreless streak with a perfect frame against the Mariners on June 1st. Typically wild (career 4.43 BB/9, 5.57 BB/9 in 2008), Sherrill has given up 2.91 walks per nine innings in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Ziegler (3.25 FIP, 66.2 GB%) hasn’t been bad, but Bailey has been a revelation out of the ‘pen for the A’s in 2009. Armed with low-90’s heat, a high-80’s cutter that saws off bats and a mid-70’s curve, Bailey has punched out 38 hitters in 32.1 innings. Batters have made contact with just 66.2% of his pitches, which ranks 5th among relievers. It’s not entirely clear who will get the 9th inning call on any given night, but owners have to be rooting for Bailey, given his strikeout potential.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

The law of averages caught up with Aardsma on May 31st, as he was rocked for 3 runs in 0.2 innings against the Angels, dishing out four walks in the process. His ERA (2.13) might look impressive, but Aardsma is walking a disturbing 6.39 batters per nine innings. It’s near impossible to remain effective while putting one’s self in jams so frequently. So far, a .236 BABIP and the highest strand rate of his career (85.4%) have allowed for the Houdini act, but Aardsma could be in for a rough go of it in the months to come.

Morrow, meanwhile, isn’t exactly buttressing his case to get the closer’s role back. He made just one appearance this week, coughing up 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk to the A’s on May 30th. Morrow’s K/BB ratio sits at an ugly 18/14 in 15.1 IP.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

It’s tough to get a read on Tampa’s situation. Howell (2.30 FIP) has certainly been the best of the bunch, but Rays manager Joe Maddon would likely rather keep the former starter available for multi-inning appearances. Izzy is having an awkward introduction in Tampa, with 5 walks in 5.2 innings. Cormier has a 2.19 ERA, but that figure is at least somewhat the product of a .243 BABIP and a very low homer rate. Your guess is as good as mine here.