The N.L. Closer Report: 5/20

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

New York’s new ninth-inning toy keeps rolling: Rodriguez has an eight-inning scoreless streak, having last been touched up on May 5th. K Rod has 11 saves, and his ERA has dipped under one. However, his overall performance is largely similar to his “disappointing” 2008 campaign: his FIP checks in at 3.20 (3.22 in ’08). The difference? A .220 BABIP, compared to .302 last year. Rodriguez’s K rate, while still by no means troublesome, is down again: 12.03 K/9 in 2007, 10.14 in ’08 and 9.15 this year.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Apparently Broxton is human: he surrendered two runs to the Phillies on May 14th, but has since reeled off two scoreless appearances on the 15th and the 18th. Broxton continues to keep the ball on the turf, with a 54.5 GB%. That, coupled with a stratospheric K rate (14.4 per nine), helps to explain why just 3 runners have crossed the plate on his watch (20 IP).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell remains unblemished in 2009, with his scoreless innings streak up to sixteen. The former Met will probably surpass DL’d Frank Francisco for the WPA lead among relievers during his next appearance. With the Padres obviously headed for a bleak season and the club short on highly-touted youngsters, do they consider leveraging their 31 year-old relief ace at the deadline? As good as Bell has been, last-place outlets should not cling to 30-something relievers if they have a chance to cash in.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With 11.4 K/9, 1.20 BB/9 and a groundball rate near 70, Qualls has certainly done his part in a D-Backs ‘pen that ranks a mediocre 22nd in team WPA. His 73.3 First-Pitch Strike% ranks fifth among all relievers, and 56% of his offerings have crossed the plate (8th among ‘pen arms).

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps continues to get bopped, with a 5-hit, 3 run train wreck against the Rockies on May 15th, a scoreless frame the following night and then a 1-run, 1-walk performance against the Nats on the 18th. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Capps’ pitches have shown an interesting trend. His fastball has progressively shown less tailing movement in on right-handed hitters (5.8 inches in ’07, 5.1 in ’08 and 4.6 this year). Meanwhile, his slider has shown far more “sweeping” action away from righties (1.9 inches in ’07, 3.7 in ’08 and 4.9 this year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman is doing his best to match the man who replaced him in San Diego, as the 41 year-old changeup artist now has an 11-inning scoreless streak going to begin his Brewers career. His flyball-oriented ways have yet to surrender a homer, and his WPA checks in at 1.02.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Lidge blew a save op and coughed up 2 runs against Washington on the 15th, but converted 2 save chances against those Nats the following two nights (including a 0.2 inning lay-up on the 17th). The .368 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB rate won’t persist, but the lack of control (10 unintentional BB’s in 18.1 IP) is disconcerting. Lidge’s 47.8 First-Pitch Strike% checks in among the bottom 15 out of all relievers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero was largely a spectator this week, getting into a game for the first time last night against the Phillies. He has yet to give up a homer in 16 frames despite a 34.1 GB%, so the 2.38 FIP is a bit misleading. Like K Rod, Cordero’s K rate is down for a third straight season: 12.22 in ’07, 9.98 in ’08 and 9.56 this season.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a bumpy week, taking back-to-back losses against the Mets on the 14th and 15th, while giving up a combined 5 runs in 1.2 frames (he converted a save op against them on the 17th). Batters are making better contact with San Fran’s stopper in 2009: his Z-contact% (the percentage that hitters make contact with pitches inside the strike zone) has risen from 81.8% in 2008 to 91.7% this season (87.7% MLB average). With a couple of late-inning stinkers, Wilson’s WPA dips to -0.63.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins worked two innings this week, converting a save opportunity against the Rockies on the 14th but taking the loss on the 16th against the Cubs. Hawkins isn’t the ideal late-inning option, but he’s missing more bats than he has since 2004 (7.56 K/9).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin had an uneventful week, pitching 1.2 scoreless innings between two appearances (May 14th against the Pirates and the 18th against Milwaukee). Is this a good time to sell high on Franklin? He’s been pretty good (7.71 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), but his FIP (3.81) is much higher than his 1.10 ERA, and that .158 BABIP won’t continue unless he has a leprechaun hidden in that bushy goatee.

Huston Street, Rockies

Colorado’s ‘pen has been wretched in 2009 (28th in team WPA), so Street moves up a category through a combination of good pitching (6 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 0 R in May) and no other viable candidates to usurp him. Street’s peripherals are nifty so far (9.92 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), and with his BABIP and HR/FB rates stabilizing, his FIP is under four.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom gave up a run in a non-save situation against the Dodgers on the 15th, then converted a save op with a clean inning the following night. The hard-throwing 29 year-old has issued 10 walks in 15 frames this season, and his WPA sits at -0.31.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

“Here, you take it”: Does anyone want the Nats’ closing gig? Ron Villone, of all people, leads the ‘pen in WPA (0.31). Free agent import Beimel is (unfortunately) fitting right in thus far: the lefty journeyman has experienced pain along the Potomac. In 16 innings, his FIP sits near five, with a -1.35 WPA. Hanrahan, meanwhile, dished out 3 runs and two walks against the Bucs on the 18th. Could Villone take over by process of elimination?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

So far, Gonzalez has posted the highest K rate (12.74 per nine) and Outside Swing% (31.1) of his career. He served up a homer to the D-Backs on the 15th, and pitched a clean inning in an 8-1 blowout against the Rockies last night. The southpaw will need to continue the good work if he hopes to hold off Soriano, who boasts a 2.59 FIP (Gonzo’s is 3.03).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg’s Wrigley woes continue: after a six-appearance scoreless streak, Gregg imploded on the 16th against the Astros. Without retiring a single batter, the former Marlin gave up four runs, including two homers, while hitting a batter. His WPA is back in negative territory (-0.31), and just 43.2% of his pitches have caught the strike zone (51.2% career average, 48.9% MLB average).