Sorry I missed you all for most of this weekend, so I’ll make sure to catch you up on the long weekend. There were some mighty stumbles this weekend, but none that should rock the closer grid. Per usual, there were the fair share of saves and only one that so far has made movement in the grid since you last saw it. Let’s talk about the falls first.
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• Trevor May was called on to finish out the third inning last night and although May recorded the final out his troubles continued as he allowed two hits and an earned run in the fourth. May still recorded two strikeouts and has a decent 3.51 xFIP with a fantastic strikeout rate (30%) but his recent outings have been downright terrible. Over his last five appearances spanning 3.1 innings pitched, May has allowed 15 baserunners and 10 earned runs. When you combine that performance along with entering the game in the third inning, it’s safe to say you have lost your role. I’ve moved Fernando Abad as the next-in-line and put Michael Tonkin on the grid with May exiting. Kevin Jepsen threw in a non-save situation last night allowing two earned and now supports a 5.89/5.30/4.86 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Gross. If May was cruising he’d be getting save opportunities by now as the back end of the Twins bullpen has collapsed. Jepsen is on red alert and I would snag Abad and Tonkin in that order for speculative saves. To add more to the confusion Tonkin pitched in the fourth and fifth inning tonight with Abad getting the last two outs in the ninth down three runs. Who really knows what’s going on in Minnesota.
For now Jepsen remains the closer and we’ll hopefully be able to glean more information on the Twins order of operations the next time they have a lead.
• Injury update for the Angels as Huston Street is heading to Arizona Friday for extended Spring Training. He also threw 20 pitches today and “could be back before the end of May.” All promising signs for Street as he comes back from a strained oblique and provided there aren’t any setbacks he should be replacing Joe Smith and return to his familiar role in the ninth very soon. Until then, Smith will close as he did tonight getting his sixth save.
A few belated bullpen notes from last night:
• Joe Smith is 4/5 on saves in place of Huston Street but is also supporting a mediocre 3.60/4.45/4.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Never known as a strikeout artist, Smith was usually around league average but has seen his strikeout rate dip to 15.5% this year. His job isn’t in danger but it’s worth noting that Fernando Salas saved his second game of the year last night, throwing a perfect ninth lowering his ERA to 2.29. That ERA will creep up as he likely won’t keep a .229 BABIP all year but if Smith falters, Salas could start seeing more ninths. Huston Street remains on the DL with an oblique injury and although he played catch last week, he’s still a few weeks away from a return but will regain the ninth once he comes back.
Tony Cingrani recorded his third save today coming into the game with the bases loaded and one out and a five run cushion. He retired the next two batters to lock down the save after blowing one on Wednesday. No official announcement has been made regarding his status as closer, but for now if you really need a closer, you can roll with Cingrani. How long he holds the role is another story as he has struck out 15 over 17 innings, but has also walked 10. His HR/FB rate is also way below his average, so if that normalizes, that can be a recipe for disaster accompanied with those walks. Personally, I’m staying away from this situation despite Cingrani seemingly having the 9th inning job because I am not sure how many save opportunities the Reds are going to have to make it worth risking my ERA and WHIP. Go after him at your own risk.
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So the Phillies bullpen is becoming a strength after a rough start, as Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez were perfect in the 8th and 9th, each striking out one. Neris continues to impress by not allowing a run in 17 of his 20 appearances, posting a 1.64 ERA (3.32 FIP). The FIP is high probably because of the 3 home runs he has given up, but outside of that he has looked very strong and also earned his ninth hold of the year for those of you counting. Gomez has also been such a pleasant surprise, despite really only a slight uptick in both his K/9 and K%. The ERA is down from last year (3.01 to 2.61), but the FIP has gone up (3.25 to 3.63). Still has been an excellent closer so far, but the question is how long will this last?
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A few notes from Monday:
• Aroldis Chapman is back playing for New York. There was no save opportunity but Chapman came in the game throwing is normal ~100 mph heat. Chapman allowed a run to score but he didn’t issue a walk and struck out two batters throwing his regular velocity. Whether or not he stays in the Bronx all season long, Chapman must be considered a top-five closing option in fantasy moving forward.
• Bryan Price has yet to name a closer but after his save last night, Cingrani has now recorded the last two saves for the Reds. Two successful saves is about as good as anyone has done on the Reds so I would expect Cingrani to continue to be the ninth inning guy.
We don’t always post Bullpen Reports on a Sunday but when we do, we talk about the Reds.
• Tony Cingrani threw 1.2 innings for the save on Friday, his first of the season. However, Bryan Price hasn’t suggested that it means Cingrani will now be the closer. In today’s game – Blake Wood blew a 4-3 lead in the seventh inning so I wouldn’t count on future saves from him in the near future. Ross Ohlendorf was called on in the eighth, and he gave up the go ahead run on a Jonathan Lucroy homer. Ohlendor stayed in to throw a scoreless ninth and finished the day with two innings, four strikeouts, three baserunners and the loss. Although Price hasn’t named Cingrani (or anyone for that matter) the closer, I’m going to move him to the top spot for now, with knowledge that this situation remains hilariously fluid. After throwing two innings today it’s likely that Ohelndorf will get Monday’s game off as well, so expect Cingrani to see the opportunity if one arises.
Thanks to some comments we have updated a few down ballot spots on the grid. The closing chairs all remain the same but the Marlins bridge to A.J.Ramos (David Phelps and Kyle Barraclough) along with a few other situations have been changed. As always – continue to let us know where we have done you wrong.
Onto the games…
• Tony Cingrani entered the game against the Mets with one out in the seventh, suggesting there is a closer carousel in Cincinnati. Cingrani allowed a triple to Curtis Granderson and gave up the go ahead run after David Wright hit a two-out single, knocking in the Grandy Man. Caleb Cotham then entered in the bottom of the eighth and struck out two batters. It’s really anyone’s guess who will receive the next save chance but it looks like Caleb Cotham, Tony Cingrani, J.J. Hoover, Blake Wood and even Ross Ohlendorf could be in line. I would stay away unless you’re desperate for saves and if you do roster one of the Reds options, I would recommend stashing them on the bench as waiting for this situation to figure itself could hurt your ERA.
• In mop-up duty in the eighth Drew Storen came on and allowed four hits and three earned runs, raising his ERA to 9.39. Woof. Storen won’t continue to have a 22% HR/FB ratio and a 53.3% LOB% all year but he can’t keep this up if he wants to see important innings. Brett Cecil hasn’t been much better of late either with a 5.19/4.12/4.39 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line of his own. I think the Blue Jays will allow these two a chance to redeem themselves but if the free fall continues, look for Jesse Chavez (2.35 ERA and a 12/1 K/BB in 7.2 innings) to move into a setup role.
• A day after recording a one-out save, Alex Colome only needed to get two outs for his fifth save of the year. Erasmo Ramirez threw a perfect seventh and eighth, handing the ball off to Xavier Cedeno (L) to get out the tough lefty, Chris Davis before letting Colome finish the job. The Rays have allowed Cedeno to pitch crucial innings, calling him on to get tough lefties but he’s never been as effective against right-handed hitters (.332 wOBA against righties and.222 wOBA against lefties in 2015) so I would still put Erasmo Ramirez ahead of him for now. However, with Brad Boxberger cleared to resume baseball activities, it won’t be long (mid-May) until everyone is moved down the chain.
• Jepsen blew a one-run lead against the Indians on a Mike Napoli homer and now has three blown saves on the year. Glen Perkins is still on the shelf with a sore shoulder but hopes he can begin throwing in a week. Until Perkins is actually throwing on the side, it’s tough to give a timeline on his return but with a sore shoulder and his checkered injury past, I wouldn’t rely on a quick return. I still expect Jepsen to see the ninth but the seat is getting warmer. Alex Meyer isn’t near saves as he was just called up but if he does well in the pen in Minnesota he could make some late inning noise.
• On a positive note for Jepsen owners, Cody Allen gave up four baserunners and an earned run giving Jepsen a win for the second night in a row. Cody Allen had an ERA north of 11 last April and didn’t lose his job but he was also still striking batters out and largely getting unlucky. Allen’s swinging strike rate is still above average, but down from last year’s mark as is his average fastball velocity which isn’t a good sign. The sky isn’t falling, especially after a clean save last night but Allen doesn’t have the same wiggle room as he did before or last year.
• Jeanmar Gomez gave up a two-out hit but finished the scoreless inning for his fifth save on the year. Hector Neris pitched a clean eighth with two strikeouts and he might be the new setup man in Philly. On the year Neris has a 0.75/2.08/1.89 pitching line with an impressive 20 strikeouts against four walks in his 11 innings pitched. Whether or not Neris will keep up a 22.8% swinging strike rate, he still seems like a solid resource for strikeouts and the occasional hold for the Phillies.
• Quick Hits: The Mets won their fifth game in a row and for the third straight day, Jeurys Familia recorded the save. Expect Familia to have the night off if a save chance arises tomorrow and look for Addison Reed or Hansel Robles to get the opportunity in his place. Hector Rondon (4) recorded a save as well.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
A few quick notes from Sunday:
• Jake McGee had a bad night allowing five earned in less than an inning. Every dog has it’s (bad) day and I don’t think McGee’s job is in danger but we’ll keep Colorado yellow for now. Miguel Castro who pitched himself into setup duty was put on the DL with an apparent non-serious shoulder injury. Chad Qualls and Boone Logan both move up a spot with McGee still ahead provided he doesn’t repeat last night’s performance.
