Bullpen Report: May 24, 2016
• Trevor May was called on to finish out the third inning last night and although May recorded the final out his troubles continued as he allowed two hits and an earned run in the fourth. May still recorded two strikeouts and has a decent 3.51 xFIP with a fantastic strikeout rate (30%) but his recent outings have been downright terrible. Over his last five appearances spanning 3.1 innings pitched, May has allowed 15 baserunners and 10 earned runs. When you combine that performance along with entering the game in the third inning, it’s safe to say you have lost your role. I’ve moved Fernando Abad as the next-in-line and put Michael Tonkin on the grid with May exiting. Kevin Jepsen threw in a non-save situation last night allowing two earned and now supports a 5.89/5.30/4.86 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. Gross. If May was cruising he’d be getting save opportunities by now as the back end of the Twins bullpen has collapsed. Jepsen is on red alert and I would snag Abad and Tonkin in that order for speculative saves. To add more to the confusion Tonkin pitched in the fourth and fifth inning tonight with Abad getting the last two outs in the ninth down three runs. Who really knows what’s going on in Minnesota.
For now Jepsen remains the closer and we’ll hopefully be able to glean more information on the Twins order of operations the next time they have a lead.
• Alex Colome was called on for the Mariano Rivera a/k/a the six out save and was able to throw two scoreless innings for his 12th save on the year. The Rays have stated that Brad Boxberger will gain the job upon his return so enjoy Colome’s saves while you can. Boxberger is currently on a rehab assignment and just pitched in back-to-back games. He could be back in Tampa before the end of the week. While Colome owners will be losing a closer, I would still advise to hold on tight as he’s been one of the top relievers in the game thus far with a 1.29/1.59/1.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP and the sexy strikeouts (36.6 strikeout rate) that fantasy owners crave. Also, if Boxberger has a set back Colome will slide right back into the ninth. With all of that said, I would expect Colome to have the day off tomorrow after throwing last night and two frames this evening.
• Sam Dyson recorded his fifth save with a perfect ninth inning and two strikeouts tonight. Jake Diekman threw a scoreless seventh and Matt Bush pitched in the eighth allowing one earned. I expect Tolleson to have a chance to regain higher leveraged innings if he succeeds out of the closer’s chair moving forward, but I’m going to take a mini leap and put Matt Bush in his place on the grid.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Very thorough vetting of a very messy situation in Minny. You’re a braver man than I am…
A shout out to Jeanmar for a very hard earned green spot.
It’s been mentioned before, Jumbo got sent down. And for those of us uber-desperate for saves, that third spot in the Red bullpen is of interest, given how shaky the top two are.
I totally acknowledge and agree that Trevor May has been horrendous lately, more favorable advanced stats notwithstanding. But do we have any evidence Abad or Tonkin would get the next save chance if they decided to go with someone besides Jepsen? Do we even know if either of them would set up for Jepsen? The last time a Twin had a chance at a hold was 5/15, when Trevor May set up (poorly) for Jepsen in a 3-0 game at the time, allowing a run in the process. Then the Twins scored 2 more runs and Jepsen was used in a non-save situation to close the game. On 5/14, Tonkin got the 7th when it was 4-1 and Pressly got the 8th (allowing a run), making it 4-2. Jepsen was unsurprisingly bad in ending the game after the Twins had scored 2 more runs again, allowing a run but getting it done for the 6-3 finish. That gives us two games that were 9-10 days ago in which 3 different guys got holds and 2 different guys set up. Extending that window to the past month, May comes out with 2 holds, with Tonkin, Pressly, and Abad all at 1 hold apiece. If Moliter is stubborn enough to stick with 5.89 ERA Jepsen at closer, I’m not sure why he’d remove 5.64 May from the set-up role, again, barring hard evidence to the contrary.
I get what you’re saying, Kobra. But both Jepson & May have been used in ‘anti-save’ parts of the game. That speaks volumes and represents hard evidence. I have seen closers with high ERAs still be effective because they toughen up with the game on the line, but these two actually get worse. Closer is definitely up for grabs in Minny.
Yes, but that could just be because there hasn’t been any traditional set-up/save work (before today) since 5/15, because the team on the whole is pretty awful. Moliter could be taking a page out of Matheny’s book, with regard to when the Cards have decided to use Rosenthal. Just to make this even more complicated, two more conflicting pieces of evidence, haha: I just saw this tweet, which does indeed support the notion that May has been removed from the set-up role:
https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/735229915365289984
And then in today’s game, Moliter used May to finish out the 7th inning (for once, May didn’t allow a run), Taylor Rogers (who was just called up a week ago) for the traditional 8th/set-up role, and Jepsen closed it out successfully. So who knows what’s going on in this bullpen.
Is Ryan Madson still solid? A few blown saves on homers, but how steady is that yellow light?
And is Axford really next in line? Give past roles and recent performance, I’d put Doo as next in line.