Bullpen Report: May 10, 2016
A few notes from Monday:
• Aroldis Chapman is back playing for New York. There was no save opportunity but Chapman came in the game throwing is normal ~100 mph heat. Chapman allowed a run to score but he didn’t issue a walk and struck out two batters throwing his regular velocity. Whether or not he stays in the Bronx all season long, Chapman must be considered a top-five closing option in fantasy moving forward.
• Bryan Price has yet to name a closer but after his save last night, Cingrani has now recorded the last two saves for the Reds. Two successful saves is about as good as anyone has done on the Reds so I would expect Cingrani to continue to be the ninth inning guy.
On to tonight’s games:
• We mentioned the likelihood of Brad Boxberger becoming the closer in Tampa Bay once he returns from injury and that seems to remain the case with Marc Topkin suggesting that “the Rays aren’t going to have a closer controversy.” Alex Colome will move down a slot and if he keeps up his 50% ground-ball percentage and 32% stirkeout rate, he’ll be a top non-closing option with potential for some vulture saves.
• Andrew Miller was a perfect 6/6 on saves as closer so naturally when Aroldis comes back he starts blowing leads. Miller allowed a lead-off homer to Lorenzo Cain (which happened to be his third of the game) but he earned the win after Kelvin Herrera allowed three runs (two earned) in the eighth. Aroldis then threw a scoreless ninth for his first save as a Yankee. Aroldis has thrown two games in a row and considering it’s his first MLB action of the year, don’t be surprised to see him have a night off tomorrow.
• Kevin Jepsen allowed four baserunners and two runs in a tie game, receiving his fourth loss on the year. Trevor May meanwhile threw a scoreless eighth, dropping his ERA to 1.89 which is supported by an impressive 2.33 FIP and 3.04 xFIP. May recorded one strikeout and now has 27 on the year in only 19 innings. After tonight’s outing, Jepsen has a 5.40/4.94/5.10 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line and I’ve accordingly changed the Twins situation to red. No word out of Twins camp about a change but Jepsen doesn’t have many bad bullets left. Glen Perkins isn’t close to returning either so I would definitely recommend speculating on May. He’s worth owning if saves aren’t close and is a must own now.
• Quick Hits: K-Rod allowed two base runners, one of which included a Bryce Harper intentional walk, but otherwise held on for the lead and his eighth save of the year. Jeanmar Gomez allowed two hits including a homer to Freddie Freeman en route to his league leading 12th save. Hector Neris threw a scoreless eighth for his eighth hold of the year. Neris has a fantastic strikeout rate and a shiny 1.70 ERA but he’s also benefiting from an unsustainable .171 BABIP and a 100% Left on Base Percentage. Neris is undoubtedly the sexier reliever but he has some possible regression coming which could keep Gomez’ job fairly secure. Darren O’Day continues his run as a premier non-closing option throwing a scoreless eighth and getting the win (2) with Zach Britton closing it out for the save (8). Hector Rondon (7) closed the door for the Cubs, a somewhat rarity given that they have 25 wins.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Jim Johnson is on the DL and was never even the next guy in line…
Whoops. Will update tonight.
Tolleson has now blown 2 of his last 3 and has an era near 6. Is that seat getting hot yet?
The other night he entered in the 9th of a tie game and gave up a run, so not a blown save. And that hiccup is sandwiched between two saves, so it doesn’t look like his seat is any hotter than it has been for most of the year.
If you take out the 5 ER he gave up in his second appearance of the year, he has an ERA of 2.03 and a WHIP of 1.15, with only one other blown save. Those numbers are better than Dyson’s.
What are Dyson’s numbers like when you take out his worse appearance too? OF COURSE A RELIEVERS STATS ARE BETTER WHEN YOU REMOVE PARTS OF THE SAMPLE
I don’t disagree with you, but we’re talking about a particularly anomalous performance (that has a HUGE impact on his ratios) that was at the very beginning of the season.
Last 30 days:
Tolleson – 11.1 IP, 3 ER, 8:3 K/BB ratio, 2.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1 BS
Dyson – 12.1 IP, 3 ER, 10:4 K/BB ration, 2.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1 BS
There is minimal difference between the two of them.
If Banister stuck with Tolleson through 0 IP, 5 ER right at the very beginning of the season, then I think he’ll stick with Tolleson through a couple appearances of 1.0 IP, 1 ER. In many save opportunities, that wouldn’t even blow the save. So no, I don’t think Tolleson’s seat is particularly hot (yet).
Echoing a lot of people here, I don’t think Tolleson’s job is particularly shaky or deserving of red at least.
If he continuously gives up runs then yes, but I think the Rangers are content as is.
Jumbo Diaz in AAA this season. 8 innings, 15Ks, 2 BB. Give him another shot Cincy!
Agreed. He was jettisoned after his one bad week while the rest of the pen kept getting tries.
I still think Ohlendorf is the guy in Cincinnati, the only reason he didn’t get the call on Monday night is that he’d pitched the previous two nights, including two innings (with 4 Ks) on Sunday. I hate that I own any piece of the clown car the Reds call a bullpen, but I would bet on Ohlendorf getting the next save opp.
You might be right and it goes to show you how damn volatile their pen is. Cingrani has still gone 2-2 on his last save tries and that could be enough to give him the edge. Avoiding this situation completely might still be the best course of action.
Can someone shed some light on the usage of Siegrist in STL? Seems to be pitching well, but not getting into many high leverage situations. Seems to be coming in mostly in tie games. 28 holds last season and none so far (albeit a few wins instead).
Coincidence or are they favoring Oh for hold situations? Hard to tell from game logs alone.
He’s such an odd case. His ratios are still outstanding, and obviously they trust him in a close game (4 wins – none of them of the “cough up the lead and get some run support” variety).
I think it’s just been an opportunity thing. They only have 5 saves and 7 holds as a team. It’s not performance – the bullpen has a 3.50 ERA and only 3 blown saves. They just aren’t playing close games with the lead, it seems.