Which did you take for your fantasy team? López and Graveman are the relievers on this list who currently have the black border around their names that signifies shared closer duties on the Bullpen Report (now streaming). Those who chose Reynaldo López were victory-dancing all around the living room on opening day as the 29-year-old Southside reliever recorded his first career save. It wasn’t a dominant performance by any stretch as the big righty gave up a monster home run, but to be fair, it was a Yordan Alvarez home run:
At the end of last season, I wrote about López’s incredibly low FIP and argued that it was unsustainably low due to an unrealistic HR/FB rate. His 2022 HR/9 in 63.1 innings of relief was 0.1, he only gave up one homerun all season. In his first appearance as a reliever in 2023, López made me seem like a smart guy. So that’s it, right? López is the same reliever he was last year, except now he’ll be eaten up by the regression monster. Not so fast. Check out his increased velocity so far in 2023:
That much of a velocity increase really stands out and it comes on top of the increased velocity he displayed last year as he transitioned more into a full-time reliever. López has always been a hard thrower relying on his fastball and while he throws a curveball and a changeup, it’s the changeup that has been his best secondary offering. He has never really leaned on the pitch too heavily, throwing it 3.7% of the time in 2022, but the pitch earned a 15.2% swinging-strike rate (PitcherList) last season. That’s better than the league average swinging-strike rate on changeups among relievers, 13.9%. Even it has seen increased velocity so far in 2023:
The last time I wrote about López I noted the increased velocity on each of these pitches and how that led to increased whiff rates. Now, López has added even more velocity and a big question is, can he continue to add velocity without sacrificing control? His strikeout rates have been on the rise and so has his command (K/BB), but how will the added velo and increased appearances in high-leverage situations affect his ability to command the strike zone?
He was put to an early test on Sunday (4/2) afternoon when he entered the bottom of the ninth with a five-run lead and things got shaky. After walking the lead-off man, César Salazar, López threw a wild one that let him take second:
Even though López got out number two on a Kyle Tucker fly ball, he gave up two rbi singles thereafter, balked a runner over to the third base, and made his manager bite his nails. Things finally came to a close with another fly ball, this time without leaving the infield. So, while increased velocity is great, López’s command doesn’t look locked in just yet and he has a history of high walk rates. In 2020, his BB% crept up to 12.4% in his 26.1 innings as a starter. The 2022 league average BB% among starters was 7.5%. That seems to always be the “Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde” for López; good, hard stuff, but touchy control. But, Reynaldo López is no longer a starter. Now, he has the freedom to focus his efforts on short, high-leverage stints, letting his velocity and stuff challenge hitters. For those of you who have fully converted to the ways of Stuff+, here are López’s early 2023 numbers:
stf+ FA – 148
stf+ SL – 133
stf+ CH – 108
While I don’t really know what those numbers mean after two full innings, they are all pretty high. I assume that’s good. As with all things, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. I’m rooting for López and if he’s available in any of my leagues, I’m adding him. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol has been impressed with Reynaldo López calling him a “special talent”, but he hasn’t named any reliever as the team’s closer in Liam Hendrik’s absence and that will likely be the case all season. Reynaldo López’s potential has always been there and if fantasy managers have the roster spot available and can keep close tabs on him, I believe he has a lot of strikeout and save/hold/win upside for 2023.
A few years ago, a guy named Jabari Blash streaked across the Fantasy Baseball firmament like a doomed comet. He had tremendous raw power, but was a three-true-outcomes guy with a vengeance, and most of those outcomes were strikeouts. His plate discipline, his glove, and his baserunning skills were such that he had to hit a lot of home runs to keep a major league job, and when he didn’t, first the Padres and then the Angels kicked him to the curb. We ourselves didn’t expect Blash to succeed, but we nonetheless took him in various deep drafts out of our sentimental recollection of a story we heard in our youths.
The tale goes like this: A young man’s fantastically wealthy grandfather dies. He leaves his entire estate to charity. To the young man, he leaves only some words of wisdom and advice. The key to success and happiness, says Grandpa, can be stated in a single word: BLASH. But to find out what the word means, the young man must do as the grandfather did in his own youth and seek out a certain guru who lives as a hermit at the top of a remote Tibetan mountain. After much travail, distress, danger, and expense, the young man scales the mountain and finds the guru. “Guru,” he says. “I have come from far across the sea to acquire the wisdom that you alone possess. What is the meaning of BLASH?” And the guru says, “Buy Low And Sell High.” Read the rest of this entry »
I included a few thoughts on the following tables, but it’s basically a data dump to be used for 2023 prep. I went through and hopefully determined, with the help of my Twitter followers, the initial 2022 closers and if they kept their job. Some information could still be off so let me know in the comments what needs to be corrected.
First off, here are this season’s initial closers. I included if they kept their job and if they lost it, why. Additionally, I tracked their team’s total Saves.
No major takeaways from this table except … the Twins had just 28 Saves.
And the next table just shows that some recent trends have stabilized.
Year Trends on Initial Closers
Year
Saves by Initial Closer
Team Saves
% Saves by Initial Closer
Total EOS
EOS %
Same Incumbent as the previous year
Same Incumbent %
2013
927
1266
73.2%
15
50%
2014
746
1264
59.0%
11
37%
16
53%
2015
737
1292
57.0%
11
37%
14
47%
2016
797
1276
62.5%
11
37%
16
53%
2017
668
1179
56.7%
10
33%
13
43%
2018
759
1244
61.0%
5
17%
12
40%
2019
573
1180
48.6%
7
23%
9
30%
2020
202
422
47.9%
11
37%
8
27%
2021
592
1200
49.3%
9
30%
6
20%
2022
599
1232
48.6%
9
30%
6
20%
Avg
660
1156
57.1%
9.9
33%
11.1
37%
The total number of Saves is constant and few closers hold the job for a full season, let alone from season to season.
And finally, the numbers of pitchers reaching certain Save totals.
Year Trends on Initial Closers
Year
Players Getting Saves
Players Getting > 4 Saves
Players Getting > 9 Saves
Non Incumbent > 9 Saves
2013
130
42
37
10
2014
134
49
39
15
2015
145
47
37
15
2016
148
53
42
15
2017
162
52
40
15
2018
165
59
43
14
2019
199
64
38
16
2020
131
–
–
–
2021
198
70
41
18
2022
222
64
35
12
Avg
163.4
55.6
39.1
14.8
Twenty-four more pitchers got a Save compared to last season. With the Saves getting spread out, only 35 pitchers (the lowest number recorded) accumulated 10 or more Saves. Just 18 guys had 20 or more Saves. If several fantasy teams are grinding for Saves, this is the reason why. This low number is also the reason fantasy managers will continue to spend up on closers.
