6/24/19

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

CLOSER NEWS

• Jordan Hicks torn UCL (2:15)
  • John Gant
• Blake Treinen to the IL (6:30)
  • Liam Hendriks
  • Closer Strategy yr-to-yr
• TB Closer Role (14:30)
  • Jose Alvarado still on leave
  • Diego Castillo to IL
  • Emilio Pagan to swipe some saves?
  • Colin Poche
• Other closer news: (19:13)
  • Roenis Elias in SEA
  • Michael Lorenzen in CIN

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• Earlier this season Blake Treinen was dealing with some elbow discomfort and now he has been placed on the IL with a shoulder issue. The A’s are calling it minor but in the meantime Liam Hendricks is expected to fill in as closer as he secured his first save last night, pitching a perfect 9th while striking out a pair. Some muscle memory with Joakim Soria on the grid in recent years almost made me throw him below but Yusmeiro Petit pitched 1.1 innings with 4 strikeouts in the 7th and 8th and has been a little more effective than Soria this year. Lou Trivino was expected to be next in line for Oakland, but he’s been struggling himself of late and Hendricks leapfrogged him in the pecking order. Whether Hendricks is closing for a couple of weeks or more will depending on how Treinen recovers. I’m clearly now doctor but it’s also clear that Treinen has not quite been himself this year even if his velocity has maintained.

• We mentioned Diego Castillo’s recent struggles yesterday and those continued with Castillo allowing two runs and four baserunners in the 7th inning last night, getting his 6th loss this season. The Rays have always been in a committee so its still a three-headed closrer with Castillo, Jose Alvarado, and Emilio Pagan but the preferred order of operations isn’t necessarily known. With Castillo’s struggles (11 runs in his last 9 appearances) I have put Alvarado atop the committee even though he has dealt with his own struggles this season. I don’t feel confident enough to say Pagan has jumped into the lead but if he keeps throwing like he has been that could happen.

• Naturally after I take off the committee tag for the Twins, Taylor Rogers is used in the 8th inning and blows the lead. After the Twins scored in the top of the 10th to take the lead Blake Parker was used in the bottom half, throwing a perfect inning for his 10th save. I am going to sadly reapply the committee tag here as the Twins will still throw their best option in the earlier innings on occasion, but Rogers is still by far the best reliever to own in Minnesota.

• Jose Leclerc pitched in the 8th inning last night, throwing a scoreless frame dropping his ERA to 4.72. Although he has an elevated ERA his 3.07 SIERA and 3.58 xFIP are closer to in line with what we expected from him this year. With that said, Leclerc still isn’t getting saves yet in Texas with Chris Martin getting the nod for the 9th instead of Shawn Kelley last night. Martin pitched a clean inning for his 3rd save. With Leclerc looming it feels silly for Texas to anoint Chris Marin as the closer but it seems as though he and Kelley could be co-closers moving forward. With that said, Kelley has struggled of late so a change wouldn’t be surprising. Leclerc had a few poor outings in a row in early June but in spite of that, since May 12th he has a 1.58 SIERA, 41.9% K-BB%, and a 16.1% SwStr%. Leclerc will never have particularly good control but he’s back to missing bats again and I would bet the over on his rest-of-season saves compared to Kelley+Martin.

• Quick Hits: Will Smith remains an obvious trade deadline candidate but amidst that he keeps shutting down the 9th, getting 20th save last night. With Aroldis Chapman getting a break, Zack Britton recorded his 3rd save. Britton’s experience (and contract) might place him next in line in New York but he walked three batters last night and overall hasn’t been particularly effective, with Adam Ottavino the obvious best reliever behind Chapman. Josh Hader threw two perfect innings for his 18th save, Brad hand (22), Felipe Vazquez (19), and Ken Giles (12) all recorded saves as well.

• With Diego Castillo having been used in the previous games (while also struggling a bit) the Rays continued their committee with Emilio Pagan getting the last two outs for his 4th save of the year. Oliver Drake got the last out in the 8th and the first of the 9th but was relieved for Pagan after allowing a walk. Jose Alvarado has been out of commission for personal reasons but threw a bullpen session this week and should be back in action soon. We still have Castillo first in the pecking order but if his struggles continue, Alvarado or Pagan could leapfrog. All three had more appealing ratios earlier this season but they’re all effective relievers and could all be owned, especially in leagues counting holds.

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• Since returning from the IL, Wade Davis has been very ineffective, leading to a deserved red band in the grid below. The Rockies haven’t made any changes yet of course and called on Davis in the 9th last night for the save. Davis got his 9th save while striking out a pair, but not before allowing a solo shot to Kevin Cron. It’s nice to see Davis get the save and a couple of whiffs but since his return he’s allowed 8 runs in 6 appearances and a very meager 7.1% Swinging Strike rate. Although he got the save, Davis will have to start putting up zeros to hold the job or a potential return to the IL.

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It has been a little while since I introduced to you my Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for pitchers. wPDI is a (new) plate discipline index metric that aims to meaningfully aggregate the frequency of pitcher plate discipline outcomes into one composite figure. A pitcher who generates a lot of contact in the zone will have a lower wPDI, while a pitcher who generates a lot of swings and misses out of the zone will have a higher one, etc.

We are now almost halfway into the 2019 season. Let’s check up on the 2019 wPDI Leaderboard for RPs – i.e. the relief pitchers who are excelling in plate discipline.

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• Bad news for the Blue Jays and people with Ken Giles shares as he went on the IL with elbow inflammation. The current word is that Giles doesn’t expect to miss more than the minimum but I’m going to guess that if we bet the over on length of IL stint with elbow inflammation that we would have some solid pocket change by now. With that said, at least the early prognosis isn’t tragic and Giles might not miss significant time. The Jays are sellers and they sure would want to see Giles performing well by the trade deadline. This might be a little set back but if he’s back soon that could still be in play.

In Giles place the Jays nominated Joe Biagini as the closer in lieu of this news but he struggled last night, called on in the 8th inning and only getting one out while allowing three guys on and two runs. Dan Hudson then came on and got the last four outs for his first save of the year. Since the Jays announced Biagini, I’m putting him atop the grid but made it yellow with Hudson someone to monitor as well. Hudson has a nicer 3.30 ERA but struggling with walks leading to a 4.68 SIERA. In spite of his struggles last night, Biagini stil has a 3.70 SIERA and has been the better reliever this year. Ideally, this is only concerning a few save opportunities with Giles making a quick return but if there are any setbacks, Biagini could receive several chances moving forward.

• Anthony Bass finished the 8th inning and was brought in for the 9th but struggled and blew the save for the Mariners. After they scored a few in the 10th,  Roenis Elias was called on to secure the second save chance and he closed the door for his 6th save. There are no particular good options for the Mariners at the moment but I’m going to put Bass and Elias in a committee for the time being with Austin Adams and Brandon Brennan also lingering behind. This situation is pretty fluid without an obvious answer, especially with Hunter Strickland having a minor set back in his recovery.

• Although there was no save opportunity for the Twins, it’s worth noting their usage last night. Blake Parker was brought in the 8th to try to clean up Trevor May’s mini mess and he proceeded to give up three runs without recording an out. As mentioned, Trevor May wasn’t effective either but I’ve moved May to next-in-line in Minnesota although I’ve maintained committee status for all three. Taylor Rogers is dealing with a sore back and should return soon. If he was healthy he probably would have been used last night. After last night’s outing, Parker’s ERA stands at 4.37 with even worse peripherals. Even thought last night’s usage might have him ahead of May on the grid, I’m content with the order below. It’s worth noting again that as the Twins have been terrific this year they are likely not going to head into October with Taylor Rogers and some dudes ending games. They aren’t linked to any trades specifically, but that should start changing in the coming weeks.

• Quick Hits: Will Smith allowed a few runners to get on but otherwise held on for his 16th save. Lots of teams could use his services and we will track the rumors as they come. Shane Greene pitched around a hit for his 20th save and like Will Smith, as a closer on a bad team he could be on the move, especially if he keeps putting up zeros. Felipe Vazquez got the 8th inning against the Braves last night with the meatier part of the lineup up. Kyle Crick blew the chance in the 9th and Vazquez still holds a firm grasp on the closer’s gig, but in today’s game only a few closers have 100% 9th inning save usage. Greg Holland got the save (10), Blake Treinen pitched a scoreless 9th up four runs striking out a pair and helping easing some minor concerns as he was in a rough patch.

For our money, the most interesting Fantasy Baseball development of 2018 was the Great Closer Selloff. As you no doubt recall, around the trading deadline eight also-ran teams—San Diego, Minnesota, KC, Texas, Baltimore, Toronto, the Mets, and the White Sox–traded away their closers, and only two of the guys thus traded away (Brad Hand for the Indians and Roberto Osuna for the Astros) wound up getting a significant number of saves thereafter.

We suspect that this phenomenon is both the beginning of a trend and the signifier of a transition. Two transitions, actually, though one has already occurred. The one that’s arrived is the tendency of contending teams to assemble what they hope are completely impermeable bullpens. The one that hasn’t is the long-overdue recognition that there’s nothing magical about a “closer,” and that a guy who can pitch you out of a jam in the seventh or eighth inning can probably do it in the ninth inning as well. But people have been predicting the demise of the closer for about 20 years, and it hasn’t quite happened yet, so there are a lot of guys sitting around the bullpens of bad teams waiting for a ninth-inning lead that never comes. And if we’re right about the trend, there will be more closer trades next month, leaving other guys to sit around those same bullpens, occasionally picking up a stray save or two. Read the rest of this entry »

• Jeremy Jeffress pitched a scoreless 8th handing the ball off to Josh Hader who recorded his 15th save of the year. After Jeffress returned from the IL, it was mentioned that he might bite into Hader’s save chances, giving him more flexibility but even though Jeffress has been effective, Hader has kept the sole closer job. The trade deadline hot stove might heat up in Milwaukee with additional relief options, but even if the Brewers bring in another closer, Hader’s value would remain fairly high given how utterly ridiculous he is. There are no strong rumors at the moment but those in redraft leagues should hold firm regardless. However, year to year relievers can be pretty fickle and there may be no higher time to sell Hader if you are in a keeper or dynasty league.

• The Braves surprised me in signing Dallas Keuchel since they had passed on Kimbrel who was maybe a bigger need in the pen. With that said, Luke Jackson remains their go-to-guy, getting the last four outs for his 9th save. Anthony Swarzak pitched 1.2 perfect innings in the 7th and 8th and his recent performances along with Jacob Webb’s struggles have placed him on the grid. Swan Newcomb got two outs in the 8th and he remains the main set up option ahead of Luke Jackson. The Braves still have a ton of young arms that could emerge from the pen or be used for additional seasoned bullpen arms but for now it looks like Jackson could be an above average closer here on out, both in terms of saves and ratios.

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• The Cubs signed Craig Kimbrel to a three-year $43M deal and as soon as he’s ready, he will be the Cubs closer moving forward. Since Kimbrel obviously missed out on Spring Training and the start of the season he will take some time to build up his arm strength and get into seasonal shape. The guess is a few weeks but whether that is two or four, I can’t say, but as soon as he’s ready he’s locked into the 9th. Kimbrel isn’t particularly fond of the committee either, so I imagine his role will strictly be the closer, and not necessarily entering in a high leverage spot in the 7th. For that, the Cubs will continue to turn to Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and co. Pedro Strop is back off the IL and picked up a save immediately upon return but last night the save chance went to Cishek. Strop isn’t going to be overused right off of the IL but he should be considered the main source of saves before Kimbrel arrives.

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• For someone with such incredible heat I’m continually amazed that Jordan Hicks doesn’t get more whiffs but Hicks nonetheless pitched a scoreless ninth for his 11th save of the year. While Hicks hasn’t been particularly great this year, he’s been able to weather the storm and hold onto the job. he entered the year in a possible committee with Andrew Miller but his ineffectiveness has allowed Hicks to have complete control. We have him yellow since he’s hit a few rough patches in May but it’s likely that he remains the sole closer in St. Louis. A small tweak could unlock more whiffs on his 101+ heat which could make him an elite option but fantasy owners will have to be happy with an ERA in the mid-high threes and 30 or so saves.

• Kenley Jansen was called on for the final four outs after Hyun-Jin Ryu got all of the previous ones. Although this is the bullpen report, I just want to point out how fun it’s been following Ryu this year who lowered his ERA to 1.48 last night. Anywho back to the bullpens, Jansen was perfect in his four outs and struck out a pair for his 16th save. Like every competitive team except maybe the Yankees, the Dodgers are likely to look for relief help at the deadline but no acquisition would affect Jansen who’s job remains as secure as ever. His 3.33 ERA is a bit pedestrian for his standards and even his 2.52 SIERA is worse than we’ve come to expect but even the This Is 30 version of Jansen is a top closing option who should get 35 saves and 75-90 strikeouts.

• Adam Morgan hit the IL for the Phillies, and although he’s vanished from the grid he was always lurking as an option for a one or two out save opportunity if lefties were coming. Hector Neris has low key taken the job by storm with a 2.56 SIERA and a swinging strike rate of 18.1% which ranks 6th among qualified relievers. If/when David Robertson comes back from injury, it’s still likely that Neris holds onto the job.

• I was singing Ian Kennedy’s praises earlier this year and I probably got a little too ahead of myself as we have watched his ERA balloon to 4.18. With that said, he’s still  the best option in the pen for the Royals and he threw a perfect 9th for his 3rd save of the year.  The Royals don’t figure to have an abundance of save opportunities but after a lot of committeeing, they might be settling on Kennedy as their main guy. If he can avoid a disaster he could provide decent source of saves for a team in need but there is still some buyer beware with projected ERAs ranging from 4.11 to 5.14.

• Jeremy Jeffress pitched two scoreless last night striking out a pair and lowered his ERA to 2.55. Once Jeffress came off of the IL we expected him to possibly sniff the 9th once he was up and running. However, in his first appearances Jeffress’ velo was 90-93 which was a cause for concern. Since then he’s inched up although it’s still not the 95+ mph heat we have become accustomed to. With that said, if he keeps putting up zeros he could see a save situation or two, allowing Hader to pitch more setup but as the trade deadline heats up I would expect the Brewers to bring in another option who is more reliable than Jeffress who could steal a few save opportunities.

• Speaking of the trade deadline, Will Smith continued his great year and saved his 13th game last night for the Giants. I keep checking and there still aren’t any strong rumors yet but I will still predict that he’s moved in July to a contender. While there could be more dominant arms available, they will likely demand a costly return and Smith can be utilized both as a “proven” closer and as a situational lefty depending on a team’s depth and need. As the deadline heats up now that the draft is almost here, we will make sure to make those rumors a big part of the Bullpen Report since many jobs could be change on a dime.