As the MLB non-waiver trade deadline approaches, fantasy owners should be paying close attention to which teams may be buyers, which teams may be sellers, and which relevant fantasy players could be on the move. A look at which players whose contracts expire at season’s end and are headed into free agency is as good a place to start as any. Read the rest of this entry »
Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base. Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward. But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.
| Joe Mauer, MIN wOBA: .253 Avg. Cost $39.72 Performed As: -$7 Value: -$47 |
Buster Posey, SFG wOBA: .340 Avg. Cost: $31.24 Performed As: $7 Value: -$24 |
Jeff Mathis, LAA wOBA: .225 Avg. Cost: $4.67 Performed As: -$15 Value: -$20 |
My Pick: Joe Mauer
You’ve heard about Howard Bender’s draft. And you’ll hear about Jason Catania’s draft and Jeff Zimmerman’s draft. Because we all got together and decided to pick six, deep league style. Our CI, MI, OF, C, SP and RP all had to come from a pool of players that was owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Here are my picks and why. In the order I drafted. I had the third pick of four.
Chris Heisey
A disclaimer about deep leagues and waiver wires: One thing you want are live bodies with some upside. It’s the usual caveat. So Heisey has flaws — he’s now struck out in 18.2% of his at-bats in his first 396 plate appearances, so he might have that flaw. Then again, his minor league rates were closer to 20% most years. He could improve in that category. His BABIP is fine (.308) and though his current ISO (.209) would rank high in his minor-league work, it would still fit. And he’s got a .192 ISO so far in the majors. He stole 27 bases against two caught-stealings in High-A, and had very good success rates all along. So he has good speed. And power. And could improve his strikeout rate. And is battling for playing time with a guy with a .245 career batting average and a strikeout rate over 33%. Yes please.
As the season moves on, things are really settling in with the catcher rankings. Not a whole lot of movement from tier to tier (almost none), but some movement within. Remember, the criteria used for the rankings is as follows:
1. Current performance level
2. Expected performance for rest of season
3. Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)
Here’s how it looks heading into July. Read the rest of this entry »
With so many articles designed to help you win your fantasy league this season, it’s time we threw some out to the bottom-feeders, especially those in keeper and dynasty leagues. While most of the competitors currently in the lower third of your league’s standings couldn’t care less about what’s going on today, it is the wise and savvy GM that continuously prepares for the future. With so much young talent behind the dish these days, it only makes sense to see what’s out there beyond the horizon. So here’s a look at a couple of top catching prospects that could debut with a late season call-up this year, but will likely be forced to wait in the minors until their time comes in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »
Things are starting to level off amongst the catchers these days, but there are still a few that are gaining and losing value as the season progresses. Here’s a look at a few names you might want to keep in mind… Read the rest of this entry »
We’re now into dump season, when closers start to lose jobs for good or get traded, movement like that. Setup guys and high-end middle relievers will suddenly become that much more fantasy relevant in the coming weeks, and we’ve already seen guys like Mark Melancon, Jordan Walden, Fernando Salas, and Sergio Santos go from sleeper to must-own. Let’s look at some closers currently on the chopping block and the guys that are next-in-line behind them…
Just moments ago, Howard put on his eviscerating goggles and made his best stab at informing us why we should all be disappointed in Carlos Santana this season. I understand this perspective, I really do. A cursory glance at his counting stats doesn’t conjure up images of Mike Piazza nor do they inspire much confidence in Santana going forward. But I think the genesis of the grousing about Santana is wrapped up in expectations of what kind of player people thought he would be rather than the one that he ought to be.
Whether you’re exploring trade opportunities or fishing off your free agent waiver wire, it’s always good to keep an eye on the backstops. Some people have a tendency to dismiss the position for its lack of consistent production, but you can always get a leg up if you can find yourself a hot hitting catcher. Here’s a look at who’s performing up to task and who should be riding the pine in your fantasy league. Read the rest of this entry »
We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball. While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.
We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders. I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least). Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom). Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.
| Alex Avila, DET Avg. Cost: $1.33 Performed As: $26 Value: +$25 |
Ramon Hernandez, CIN Avg. Cost: $1.24 Performed As: $22 Value: +$21 |
Russell Martin, NYY Avg. Cost: $3.86 Performed As: $22 Value: +$18 |
