Biggest Busts: C & 1B (ottoneu lwts leagues)

Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base.  Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward.  But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.


Joe Mauer, MIN
wOBA: .253
Avg. Cost $39.72
Performed As: -$7
Value: -$47
Buster Posey, SFG
wOBA: .340
Avg. Cost: $31.24
Performed As: $7
Value: -$24
Jeff Mathis, LAA
wOBA: .225
Avg. Cost: $4.67
Performed As: -$15
Value: -$20

My Pick: Joe Mauer

Given the choices, this is a no brainer.  Posey’s injured for the rest of the season.  Jeff Mathis has never hit anyway (I’m really puzzled why he’s averaged almost $5…and someone spent $12 on him!).  And Mauer seems to be back and pretty much healthy after a strange and still somewhat mysterious bout with bilateral leg weakness and the flu.  Mauer has the ability to take off and be an absolutely insane offensive performer that can carry a (fantasy) team.  So far, in very limited time, he’s been dreadful, of course.  But he seems likely to return to an elite catcher in the second half, as long as he remains healthy.  He’s my catcher on all of my fantasy teams this year, so here’s hoping he comes back strong in the second half.

Rest of season projections for Mauer
Oliver: .391 wOBA
ZiPS: .365 wOBA
PECOTA: .305

Others (with value below cost): Carlos Santana (-$18), Kurt Suzuki (-$14), Ivan Rodriguez (-$10), J.R. Towles (-$10)

First Base

Adam Dunn, CHW
wOBA: .281
Avg. Cost $33.18
Performed As: -$12
Value: -$45
Albert Pujols, STL
wOBA: .374
Avg. Cost: $58.90
Performed As: $28
Value: -$31
Justin Morneau, MIN
wOBA: .276
Avg. Cost: $21.38
Performed As: -$9
Value: -$30

My Pick: Albert Pujols

Meet my first baseman in ottoneu!  And I paid $67 for him (someone out there paid $75!).  It’s not that Pujols has been bad.  But he’s performed as “only” a very good first baseman, instead of providing the super-human production that we expect from him.  Back in the lineup last night against the Reds (I compare his healing abilities to Wolverine), he’s a good bet to hit closer to a .400+ wOBA the rest of the season like we’re accustomed to seeing.  Assuming he’s really healthy.  After all, a player like Albert Pujols won’t have a .253 BABIP for long, though it would help if he’d get his ground ball percentage back down to career averages.

Rest of Season Projections for Pujols
Oliver: .446 wOBA
ZiPS: .408 wOBA
PECOTA: .339 TAv

That all said, the guy on this list I’m cheering the hardest for is Adam Dunn.  Dunner is one of my favorite players in baseball, at least from a personality standpoint.  Sure, he can’t field a lick.  But he has always hit well, and has always been laugh-out-loud funny while doing it.

Others: Daric Barton (-$21), Adam LaRoche (-$16), Derrek Lee (-$13)

Next week: 2B & 3B

Justin is a lifelong Reds fan, and first played fantasy baseball on Prodigy with a 2400 baud modem. His favorite Excel function is the vlookup(). You can find him on twitter @jinazreds, even though he no longer lives in AZ.

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11 years ago

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