I’ll freely admit that this column is highly speculative in nature, and based on plenty of assumptions. However, that’s kind of what this time of year is for as a fantasy writer. It’s the time of year when you start going through your “What ifs” for the next season, and I think I have a pretty intriguing “What if” scenario for John Jaso.

For the second consecutive year, Jaso had his season cut short due to continued concussion symptoms. For very good reason, this has led to some speculation regarding Jaso’s future behind the plate, or possible lack thereof. The A’s already took steps in 2014 to get his bat in the lineup at designated hitter, but even with his 32 starts at DH, the 47 starts he made behind the dish proved to be too many, and Jaso’s 2014 season ended just like 2013 did.

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Jonathan Lucroy was a frequent guest of FanGraphs this season, but we left him on his own here at RotoGraphs. It’s not like he was ever on the waiver wire. FantasyPros recorded a price range of $3 to $24 for Lucroy, averaging $12. You can bet that will increase next year after turning in a $16 season per Zach Sanders. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Davis, the 2014 bust, was obviously a massive disappointment to fantasy owners. But did you know that he was also a catcher, playing for the Seattle Mariners? Check out these two cherry-picked batting lines:

Without looking, are you sure you know which one is Mike Zunino and which is Davis?

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Here is Travis d’Arnaud before he was sent down on June 8th: .180/.271/.273/.241 (BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA).

Here is TDA after his return: .269/.315/.481/.346. He also tore it up (again) at Triple-A.

Here is TDA from August fifth onward: .280/.335/.510/.369. Yan Gomes, FYI, went .278/.313/.472/.340 albeit for the season.

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For the four seasons spanning 2009-12, Miguel Montero was a very useful fantasy catcher. The lowest triple slash he posted over that time frame was a useful .266/.332/.438 line, still good for a 100 wRC+. His decline has been rapid, as for the second year in a row Montero has hit below .250 and over his past 1,035 plate appearances he’s managed a mere 86 wRC+.  Read the rest of this entry »

The Oakland Athletics are undoubtedly quite pleased with the breakout at the plate of Derek Norris in 2014. He batted .270/.361/.403 in 442 plate appearances, posting obvious career bests in AVG and playing time, both of which proved useful to fantasy baseball players.

Two aspects of Norris’ production in his supposed breakthrough season seem to warn his owners not to get too far ahead of the backstop’s train, however. He hit 10 home runs, but eight of them came before the All-Star break, in only 28 more PAs than he accrued after the season’s faux midpoint. His uptick in PT could be traced to team need as well as some notable gains in his splits versus right-handed pitchers early in the year, especially in terms of strikeouts, something I chronicled in June, but that discipline against same-handed pitchers faded as the season wore on.

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I had big hopes for Brian McCann this season. He moved from a pitcher friendly stadium in Atlanta to arguably the best hitting venue for lefties in all of baseball (I’m willfully ignoring Coors Field…). He often spends time on the disabled list, but there was reason to hope a smattering of starts in the designated hitter role would keep him healthy AND lead to a career best in plate appearances.

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Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis was supposed to tell us a lot this season. After a power-filled 2013, fans and analysts seemed to take two different paths when discussing the 26-year-old rookie. The fans thought he was ready to breakout, while the analysts saw plenty of signs that pointed to regression. Who was right in 2014? After looking at his stats, it’s fair to say no one. Gattis put up mostly identical numbers during his sophomore season. He posted an identical walk rate, a slightly elevated strikeout rate and hit one more home run in 2014. While the overall offensive performance was better based on his batting line and wOBA, you couldn’t call it a breakout. That wasn’t necessarily the case at midseason, when Gattis was looking like an elite offensive catcher.

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Each season you nabbed him as a sleeper. You expected him to deliver on his top prospect promise. But he kept disappointing, or simply didn’t earn the playing time you had hoped for. So you gave up. And then he broke out. Sound familiar? It happens a lot. It’s when the former top prospect sheds all the hype, everyone forgets about him, and then he goes off. Everyone then remember that perhaps they hadn’t given that player enough of a chance, jumping off the train far too soon.

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Let’s start with a multiple choice question.

1) Russell Martin has been lucky on the following balls-in-play type(s):

a) Grounders

b) Liners

c) Flies

d) at least Grounders and Flies

If you chose a) grounders, you would be wrong. If you chose d) flies, you would be wrong. If you chose b) liners, well… you could be partly right, however, the correct answer is d) at least grounders and flies. You could argue that there should be an e) option, ‘all of the above.’

According to Zach Sanders’ End of Season Catcher rankings, Russell Martin bamboozled his way into the top 10 at #7 overall and produced what would have been his 2nd best fantasy season if he approached 150+ games.

By bamboozled, I mean BABIP’ed.

Look at his 2014 ground ball, fly ball and line drive-related BABIP’s on each individual balls-in-play type in 2014 relative to his career; relative to 2013 (still with the Pirates); and relative to the mean if we considered his career rates as a one year performance:

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