Tyler Flowers Could Be Useful in a Different Way

The last backstop with positive value – OK, basically, he was a zero, but we’re looking at the bright side, here – in 2014, according to the Zach Sanders end-of-season catcher rankings, is none other than Tyler Flowers. That finish of 16^th among those whose primary responsibilities came behind the plate – so, excluding Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer – made him a viable option for those in two-C mixed leagues all season.

No rational person would have predicted that the Chicago White Sox’s squatter would continue to produce like he did in March/April: .354/.398/.415 in 88 plate appearances. He struck out 35.2% of the time that month and registered a .560 BABIP. The starting surge came without much in the way of extra-base hits, as the .061 ISO that month demonstrated. If Flowers wasn’t going to hit any bombs, what good was he? Some serious regression was on its way, and it was probably going to include a rest-of-the-way batting average of about .150.

Close! He hit .212 for the rest of the season. That’s hardly fantasy-friendly material. But how bad is it? If you examined Zach’s list, then you might have noticed that it didn’t take much for a catcher to be fantasy-relevant this season. Hit some homers, or hit for some average, but please, don’t do both!

It’s possible that 2014 represents a growth year for Flowers, too. I took a quick look at him earlier this season because he was on another hot streak, and this one included power. There’s a link in that post to an ESPN story, one of several out around that time, which discusses his switch from contact lenses to sport goggles as well as his work on his approach at the plate. I figured that I’d follow up to see where Flowers finished and if there’s anything significant to like heading into next season.

I consider just about any player and situation TBD, but in Flowers’ case, maybe not (something significant to like). This is no surprise. He’s likely to provide power occasionally and be streaky. No shock. Perhaps he could provide the power a little more consistently, though. (And, if so, it probably won’t be because of the new specs.)

Flowers batted .218/.273/.304, with a 36.6 K%, in 279 PAs prior to the All-Star break. After that, he hit .280/.337/.553, with a 35.0 K%, in 163 PAs. I initially thought that he might have begun to display a tad more discipline in his approach, but those seedlings were just small-sample results while things were going well for him, which is far from surprising. No notable changes in his plate discipline, including his reach, contact, and swinging-strike rates – with the exception of, perhaps, a slight improvement in his selectivity – in the second half.

But it’s likely that Flowers found a more comfortable place in the process. That counts for a little, boosting his case in the margins. Overall, there appears to have been a slight dip in his ISO, but he started to take off in that category in July, around the time that he implemented his changes. The 28-year-old posted a .086 ISO before the ASB and a .273 ISO after it. For what it’s worth, he upped his line-drive rate this season considerably, and he posted a 36.6% fly-ball rate in the second half, getting back to around normal for him in his career.

Flowers isn’t the type of backstop fantasy baseball players are likely to target in 2015. The average pundit will probably point to a .355 average on balls in play in 2014 and his scary strikeout and recommend that fantasy owners just steer clear. Pitchers will adjust to his new approach, and the catcher seems likely to pay a price in the AVG department, making such a rec a safe one.

It’s also possible that the ChiSox croucher has hit on a more satisfactory and amenable swing plane and/or approach to hitting. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him get back to close to that .200 ISO territory he teased in 2011 and 2012. That could mean 20-plus home runs in a full season, and that kind of power would make him more interesting than the average pundit would expect.

No one likes players who swing and miss these days. But we basically have to accept them at some point, or our fantasy teams are likely to be lacking some other things. A .210 batting average with 20 home runs sounds nauseating to most fantasy owners. Those kinds of marks made Mike Zunino a low-end No. 1 catcher in mixed leagues when all was said and done. Power was down. Offense was down. It might not be coming back any time soon. If I’m going to take a beating in AVG, I’d be happiest to do it in one of my C spots.

To add to Flowers’ value in the margins, he seems likely to be the club’s starting catcher next year. If the South Siders don’t bring in an established-veteran type, then he’ll likely be their best defensive catcher and a good bet for playing time. He calls a ballpark with one of the best HR park factors in baseball home. And he showed some signs in 2014 that he may be getting a handle on some things at the plate. The improvements don’t have to equate to huge jumps in any of his results to be meaningful. A total of 20 home runs, particularly from a catcher, is probably going to be useful next year.