Dioner Navarro’s Value Finds Its Way North

A quick skim through Zach Sanders’ catcher rankings reveals some familiar faces.

Buster Posey sits at the top. Breakout sensation Devin Mesoraco is third. Evan Gattis, Miguel Montero and Travis d’Arnaud are all there.

And ranking eighth: Dioner Navarro?

That’s right, Navarro finished ahead of guys like Gattis, Brian McCann and Joe Mauer, becoming one of the most surprising fantasy success stories of 2014. His 69 RBIs ranked ninth among eligible catchers in CBS leagues, and his .274 average ranked seventh among those with at least 400 plate appearances. He was pretty consistent, too; the switch-hitter produced virtually the same slash rates against righties and lefties, and posted an OPS no lower than .720 in each month besides May. After a three-week cold snap to begin that month, he never really looked back, slashing .278/.324/.419 with 11 home runs from May 20 onwards.

The most obvious explanation for Navarro’s success is opportunity. He hadn’t been a full-time player since 2009 with the Rays, and was signed by Toronto as a cost-effective replacement for J.P. Arencibia, but the 30-year-old was able to stay healthy, setting career highs with 139 games played and 520 plate appearances.

He also found a home in Toronto. In a lineup that ranked second in the American League in wOBA, Navarro batted predominantly in the fifth and sixth slots, reaping the benefits of hitting behind the likes of Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. All this while playing half his games at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, where he slashed .300/.333/.456 and bashed nine of his 12 dingers.

As it happens, this was the second straight season in which Navarro reached double digits in longballs, though his 13 homers last year — in just 89 games — were made possible in no small part by an abnormal 18.8% HR/FB rate. But even if Navarro isn’t to be confused for a power hitter, he’s long been able to make contact at an above-average rate, and his 24.1% line drive clip produced a healthy, but not extraordinary, .301 BABIP this year.

What was extraordinary, however, was his .363 BABIP with runners in scoring position, a number that helps explain his RBI surge and one that he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate next year. The Venezuelan also will have to hit outside of Toronto, because as solid as Navarro was north of the border, he was putrid in the US of A, compiling a woeful .281 wOBA with virtually no power. And looking ahead to the future, the potential loss of Cabrera to free agency this offseason, to name one scenario, could diminish the Jays’ lineup and, thus, Navarro’s ability to come close to his 2014 success.

How should we appraise Navarro heading into 2015? That’s difficult to say for a player of such relative value, especially without the benefit of ADP reports right now. But it’s safe to say nobody is expecting him to finish among the top 10 backstops again, as a significant drop in RBIs, and probably a few less home runs, is foreseeable. Despite his resurgent 2014, it wouldn’t be surprising to find the soon-to-be 31-year-old in the fantasy discount bin on draft day.

But there’s reason to believe a batting average in the .260-.270 range is attainable, especially if he continues his success at the Rogers Centre and the Blue Jays can field another productive lineup. Given that he’s under contract for next year and currently projected to return as the Blue Jays’ full-time catcher, a healthy Navarro likely would have use in plenty of two-catcher formats, where he could deliver a decent, if limited, return on investment.