Archive for Catchers

We’re not quite a quarter of the way into the season – which isn’t the quarter pole, by the way, that comes around 122 games though that won’t stop anyone – but it is a perfect time to update the consensus rankings here at Rotographs. First off, we’re about to have Memorial Day weekend and what better way to spend the extra time off than by retooling your fantasy team? To do that, you’ll need to know how we value players going forward so you don’t get ripped off at the trading table. Secondly, even though we’re only about 39 games through the season (some teams are as high as 41 played while three others are down at 36), a lot has changed.

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There was a time in fantasy baseball when prospect call-ups barely registered on the radar. I know that sounds crazy given how much we as a community overreact to them now, but when I first started playing there were maybe a handful of call-ups we were waiting for in-season and even then, expectations were tempered. Today, we often have outsized expectations attached to prospects which lead to a lot of disappointment. The newest names almost sure to disappoint the fantasy community are catchers Blake Swihart and Austin Hedges.

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If there’s a common thread between guests of the deep league wire, it’s that they typically don’t enter the fantasy picture because they were anyone’s ideal choice for playing time — they get their opportunities because others go down with injuries or are simply too awful to deserve major league starting jobs. This week’s candidates prove no exception, though both have the potential to contribute in NL-only leagues. As a reminder, I use CBS for the ownership percentages.
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Jonathan Lucroy, Yan Gomes, and Travis D’Arnaud all recently hit the disabled list. John Jaso was on the DL after just one plate appearance! Matt Wieters started the season on the DL and it seemed like Devin Mesoraco was headed there soon until a recent PH appearance. He hasn’t started a game since April 11th and he missed seven games in between PH appearances on the 12th and 21st. That is four of the top 10 drafted catchers, another within the top 15, and one of the most popular second catcher options in Jaso as he stood to get a ton of playing time as a non-catching catcher.

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Cursing at the injury Gods already? Yeah you are. Let’s see what your free agent pool might offer in your deep league.

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For those of us that drafted Travis d’Arnaud in the hopes of a true breakout season are certainly disappointed that his hand was broken this weekend on a hit by pitch. I went so far as claiming that d’Arnaud would hit 20 home runs this year in our Bold Prediction series. He was certainly on the right track, hitting .317/.356/.537 over 56 plate appearances.
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Last week, I identified potential stolen base streamers for daily fantasy leagues and weekly leagues with daily transactions and lineup changes. I used a pitcher’s career caught-stealing and pick-off rates as criteria to determine if a particular matchup was primed for streaming a speedster with the hope of him stealing a base (or two or four).

I like how it turned out, but it felt hastily constructed. A pitcher’s career rate seemed too broad a scope, especially considering the possibility that a pitcher can get better (or, perhaps, worse) at limiting steals and picking off runners over time.

With a little more time and care, I fleshed out everything a bit more and added an additional criterion: catcher effectiveness, which can be most obviously measured by caught-stealing rate. But I think there also is merit to calculating the frequency at which runners attempt to steal on a catcher. In a sense, it measure runners’ perception of a catcher’s skill, especially for those at the tails of the distribution.

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A player I ended up with but did not love entering the draft this season was Salvador Perez. On a split team that I was forced to miss the actual draft of, my co-manager drafted Perez as he fell pretty late given the league is on on base percentage league. Coming off of a 92 wRC+ season with a .289 OBP, I was a bit worried about owning solely Perez so we decided to pick up Derek Norris as a backup.
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“Don’t read into Spring Training stats” is a good surface level mantra to hold on to. The competition is uneven, the results don’t matter, and the players are all working on things in preparation for the regular season. To some extent, it’s like looking at September numbers on a non-contending team: those are very different from May numbers.

Even the benefits of a huge surge in results is only slightly predictive. There’s the study from John Dewan about a huge slugging percentage breakout in the spring, but recently work by Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepherd poked some holes in the theory.

If you look at when stats stabilize, however, there are a few stats worth checking out. We know from Jeff Zimmerman that fastball velocity stabilizes very quickly, and so it’s worth reading his MASH articles to find the most recent gun readings on pitchers.

And we know that strikeouts stabilize quickly — 100 plate appearances for batters, 126 batters faced for pitchers. A spring is something like a half of a September, so it doesn’t get to those thresholds, but the evidence is there that strikeouts become meaningful quicker than most stats, and so therefore spring strikeouts may be worth keeping an eye on.

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It’s my favorite time of the year here at RotoGraphs, the season of bold predictions. (My least favorite time, naturally, is late September, when I have to atone for these forecasts.) As usual, the trick here is to balance imagination against reality, the impossible versus the attainable, the speculative against the demonstrable. It’s a tough task that, for me, often results in happy predictions, but then again, it’s March — ’tis the season to indulge in some fantasy baseball fantasies, right?
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