Is Sal Perez Ready to Breakout?

A player I ended up with but did not love entering the draft this season was Salvador Perez. On a split team that I was forced to miss the actual draft of, my co-manager drafted Perez as he fell pretty late given the league is on on base percentage league. Coming off of a 92 wRC+ season with a .289 OBP, I was a bit worried about owning solely Perez so we decided to pick up Derek Norris as a backup.

I would not say a week changes my outlook. I still like having Norris as an upside play and as backup in case Perez performs more like last year, even with the increased power. I will say that Perez’s hot start to the year has to make anyone happy that they own the soon-to-be 25-year-old. Three homers, eight RBI, and a stolen base (which matched his career total) in the first week of the season is a phenomenal week for any catcher.

The positive to take away is that Perez’s power from last year looks real. His ISO was almost identical to the season prior due to fewer doubles per plate appearance, but the 17 home runs were nice to see from Perez – even though they came with over 600 plate appearances. It is likely the Royals try and manage Perez a bit better this year, and I would expect his game played total to be more around the 140 mark than 150, which will make a difference on his end of season totals. Even so, I think 20 homers is attainable for Perez, who makes his mark on pulling balls right down the left field line.

One big issue Perez had last year was a difficult second half. He had a 116 wRC+ and 11 home runs in the first half compared to a 61 wRC+ and six home runs after the All-Star break. This suggests the over usage caught up to him. With proper handling the hope is that we see more of what we saw in the first half last year. What we can also monitor is how often he is being played, and if we see a similar pattern as last year that projects 150 games and 600 plate appearances, the midway point of the year might be a pretty good time to take your winnings on Perez and look for a suitable trade partner.

In terms of batted ball distance, Perez looks similar to last year over the first week. His average speed off bat, according to ESPN’s Hit Tracker, is identical to last year’s at 102.7, and his average true distance is 391.3 feet this year compared to 388.2 feet last year, which is coming from a small sample and not a very large difference either way. The average distance is a pretty attractive number when you consider that he only actually hits home runs to left field. Only one of his home runs last year was not to left field, and we all know that fences are deeper to center than they are to left – so his average distance should be looked at a bit differently than those who park a majority of their home runs to centerfield.

While I do not necessarily think we will be looking at more actual power from Perez, in the sense that he will hit more balls further than last year, I do think it is reasonable to expect him to control the strike zone and plate better. A player with high quality bat control should not have a 10% difference between his walk and strikeout rate. So far Perez has struck out and walked just once. Ideally we would trade more walks for the same amount of strikeouts, but if he is able to command the zone and simply put the ball in play (or over the fence) more frequently the odds are his overall offensive performance will be closer to his career average rather than last year’s low production.

In terms of catcher aging curves, Perez is just about to hit his peak production. It is fair to think a player of his skill set can put it altogether for the first time this year and give you adequate returns on your purchase. Of course, after a solid first week, Perez will be a bit more difficult to acquire. However, I do not think buying high on him will hurt you too much especially if you are willing to pull the trigger and move him again during the middle months of the year if it appears he is being overworked. While I was initially looking at Perez as a bit of a drain on my roster, I am now looking at him with a bit of hope that we got the next catcher breakout at a relatively cheap price.