We, as fantasy writers, tend to make a lot of favorable recommendations throughout the year. We talk about which players we like, which ones we anticipate having a breakout season, which ones you should think about picking up during the year and which ones you should watch for in-season call-ups. And while all of that “draft this guy” and “pick up that guy” prove to be valuable pieces of information, rarely do we see the equally valuable “I wouldn’t draft this guy if you paid me.” Well, since I’ve already been accused of writing some mean-spirited things about players in the past, I’ve decided to turn that negativity into an entire post and tell you three players who I refuse to draft this season and why you shouldn’t touch them either. Read the rest of this entry »

With Miguel Cabrera heading back across the diamond to first base, Nick Castellanos is returning from the outfield to his natural position at the hot corner. When the Tigers brought in Prince Fielder, it appeared that Castellanos was completely blocked at the major-league level, so the Tigers tried to transition the 21-year-old to the outfield. With Fielder gone, that problem is a thing of the past.

There’s plenty to like about Castellanos, the top prospect in Detroit’s organization. His bat is very quick through the zone, and there’s never been much of a question among scouts about the quality of his hit tool. His power stroke is showing signs of life, as he has increased his home run total in each of his three full minor-league seasons; he hit seven homers in A-ball in 2011, 11 across three levels in 2012 and 18 in Triple-A last year. Another big positive for Castellanos is the improvement in his contact rate. He struck out in 23.1% of his plate appearances in 2011, followed by 20.2% in 2012 and 16.8% last year.

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Coming into the 2013 season, Aaron Hicks looked like he might have finally put it all together. The former first-round draft pick was coming off a highly productive season in Double-A, where he hit .285/.382/.459 with 13 homers and 32 stolen bases. Then came Spring Training, where Hicks looked like a man amongst boys, hitting an absurd .370/.407/.644 with four dingers and three steals while playing excellent defense in center field. The five-tool player that the Twins had spent so long cultivating was finally bearing fruit. Minnesota handed Hicks the starting job in center field over Darin Mastroianni and set him free to light the world on fire.

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Starlin Castro’s 2013 season was such a disappointment our own Howard Bender has already stated Castro was the least value player for the 2013 season. I am not sure how much his owners paid for him, but I am guessing it was more than the -$4 he returned this season. The main problem with Castro’s declining production can be traced back to changes his approach at the plate which may continue into 2014.

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Will Middlebrooks had a fairly promising future with the Red Sox after being called up in 2012. His 2013 season did not go as planned. A couple of injuries and a demotion caused havoc on his season. Going forward into 2014, his career will be at a cross roads for several reasons.

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When discussing a fantasy baseball ‘Least Valuable Player,’ we’re looking at a few different things to factor in. Obviously, an under-performing stat line is one. But we’re also looking at the relative cost of the player in relation to other players at his position. If he didn’t cost you more than a 15th round draft pick or $2 in your auction and he didn’t perform well, then so be it. Very little harm done. But when you’ve used a third or a fourth round pick on him and he doesn’t meet expectations, it’s a much bigger deal. We’re also taking into account that player’s in-season trade value. Some guys who are in a slump, you can still trade them on name and reputation, but when the performance is so bad that no one wants to trade for them, an LVP award is just begging to be won. For me, this season, no one epitomizes the LVP award more than Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro.

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When Yuniesky Betancourt earns more fantasy value than you, you know you’ve had a bad season. Or in other terms, if you decided to draft B.J. Upton this year, then you’re gonna have a bad time. According to Zach Sanders’ end of season dollar value calculator, Upton broke the hearts of Braves fans and his fantasy owners by generating negative fantasy value, ranking a sad 461st out of 482 players. When factoring in his ADP of 48, he ranked as the most value-sucking player according to our value leaderboard.

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We still haven’t even completed the 2013 season yet, but there’s no doubt that some owners are already looking toward 2014 (or, this other sport called “football”). Whether your team has been torpedoed by injuries to Matt Kemp, Albert Pujols and Derek Jeter or you have considered jumping out your window as the owner of BJ Upton and Starlin Castro, it is never too early to start preparing for next year. Every season, there are breakouts and disappointments, some more surprising than others. Unfortunately, human nature is prone to recency bias, the tendency to weight recent events more than earlier events. This causes players coming off breakout/career years to typically become overvalued in drafts the following season. With that in mind, here are three hitters who will potentially be overvalued in your draft next year.

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With just over a month to go, time is running out for offensive disappointments to get back on track and start showing the type of power projected of them before the season began. When a hitter goes through a power drought, there could be a number of explanations, such as an injury, aging effects or good ole’ random variation (read: bad luck/fluke). These five hitters have seen their ISO rates plummet the most compared to last season. Let’s try to figure out what went wrong.

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Last Tuesday, I compared the average home run and fly ball distances for qualified hitters with last season. Of the 10 hitters who enjoyed the largest distance surges, 8 of them had also experienced an increased HR/FB rate. Today, I check in on the other side of the coin — those hitters whose distance has declined the most. Whether an injury is to blame or some other explanation is behind the drop, it’s a bad sign for a hitter’s power and HR/FB rate.

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