Three Guys I Won’t Draft in 2014
We, as fantasy writers, tend to make a lot of favorable recommendations throughout the year. We talk about which players we like, which ones we anticipate having a breakout season, which ones you should think about picking up during the year and which ones you should watch for in-season call-ups. And while all of that “draft this guy” and “pick up that guy” prove to be valuable pieces of information, rarely do we see the equally valuable “I wouldn’t draft this guy if you paid me.” Well, since I’ve already been accused of writing some mean-spirited things about players in the past, I’ve decided to turn that negativity into an entire post and tell you three players who I refuse to draft this season and why you shouldn’t touch them either.
Yasiel Puig, OF LAD — He may have tremendous raw talent and he may have broken out offensively last season, but for me, there are far too many red flags to ignore. His 19 home runs and .215 ISO over 382 at-bats tell us that he’s capable of hitting for power, but when you’re looking at a guy with a .383 BABIP, a 22.5-percent strikeout rate and a ground ball rate in excess of 50-percent, you can’t tell me that he’s not going to find it difficult to repeat his rookie performance. And let’s not forget his below-average contact rates and a swinging strike rate of 16.9-percent. Now add to that his attitude problems, his tumultuous relationship with his manager, and some apparent off-field issues. Some might dismiss the speeding as a minor infraction, but for me, it’s just one more potential problem waiting to happen. Like a gateway problem, if you will. What starts out as minor today balloons to something bigger down the road. And speaking of ballooning, how about coming into camp almost 30 pounds heavier. At least when Mike Trout came in heavier it was almost all muscle and his reasoning for it made complete sense. Puig had no such explanation. Is this what you want to spend a second-round pick on this year? Not me. With no proven track record at the major league level and a slew of negatives presenting themselves, I just don’t see the reward being worth the risk when there are so many other worthwhile options available to you at that point in your draft.
Joe Mauer, 1B MIN — Listen, I get the Mauer love. I do. And if I’ve got myself a time machine and am playing fantasy baseball back in 2009, I would love him too. But this is the 2014 season and I am staying far, far away from his bandwagon. So what if he’s moving to first base full-time this year. Big deal. Yes, it’s liable to keep him healthier for the season and he should see a strong increase in plate appearances, but is that enough to warrant drafting him as a top catcher in the fourth or fifth round? I don’t think so. He doesn’t hit for power, he doesn’t steal bases and his potential RBI total looks to be pretty blah. Even his runs scored seem a little sketchy this season because, while he’ll get on base at a strong clip, who’s bringing him home? He doesn’t have a hard-hitting Justin Morneau batting behind him anymore and, I’m sorry, but the tandem of Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia isn’t enough for me to think we’ll see another season of 80 runs. And even if you think he will see a strong number of runs scored, do we really think a two-category player at a relatively deep position is worth that high a draft pick? I’d rather wait two rounds and take Wilin Rosario. Hell, I’d rather wait five rounds and take Salvador Perez.
B.J. Upton, OF ATL — I’m including the elder Upton brother here because I keep hearing people talk of a potential rebound and how he’ll be at such a bargain price this year. Well, for me, when it comes to Upton, you get what you pay for and if you’re getting him in the later rounds of your draft, you’re getting late-round production, at best. Sure, there’s no risk, but give me someone with either more consistency or more upside at that point in the draft. Don’t give me a guy who struck out 33.9-percent of the time last year and hasn’t seen a strikeout rate lower than 25-percent in the last four years. Don’t give me a guy whose batting average hasn’t been higher than .250 since 2008 or has had an OBP below .300 in the last two years. And certainly don’t give me a guy whose contact rate has steadily dropped the last three years while his swinging strike rate continues to climb over that same span. Bargain price or no bargain price, he’s still a drain on your fantasy team. And how about the stolen bases? Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez doesn’t give the green light very often anyway, so how often do you think he’ll give it to a guy whose stolen base success rate is on the decline and is only at 77.5-percent over the last three years? People say he’s got nowhere left to go but up? Well I say that’s just not true. You can dig a hole and bury him.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
I get the argument that from a relative value perspective, you’d be better served to wait on drafting a catcher, but avoiding Mauer altogether is just silliness.
Morneau has been terrible for 3 years now and the only reason he racked up RBIs is because Mauer was on base ahead of him. Whoever hits in that spot will have an outsized number of RBIs for their talent level — With Mauer’s OBP above .400 its just math. Even assuming no offensive improvement Mauer will lead the position in Runs. Also, considering his .323 career average he’ll likely lead the position in AVG as well, like he did in 2013.
So you’re advising against a guy that is basically a lock to lead two roto categories, and has room for significant improvement as he’ll get more PAs and no longer be playing the most demanding physical position in the game. Yup, makes total sense…
I second your post and then some. You can’t overlook the potential value of, say, 155 games from someone who is C eligible. That fairly likely .320+ BA becomes extremely valuable, and the counting stats will improve.
But here’s what people overlook: things change. We know Mauer is capable of some homers even when playing catcher, but we have NO idea how much not playing catcher might help him (outside of the general truth that hitters are better when the catching burden is removed). What if the lighter grind leaves him feeling better than ever before? If that means 18-22 HRs, Mauer goes to another level. And let’s not forget that this “player who doesn’t steal” DID steal 8 bases last year. Is it so crazy to think that an athlete of Mauer’s caliber might chip in around 10 steals when his legs don’t have to deal with C anymore?
Given that Mauer is already one of the safest floor players in fantasy, and that he now likely won’t have any major injury risk, he strikes me as one of the best bets for 2014, as long as you aren’t forced to overpay.
An ADP in the late 5th round is an overpay in a 1 catcher league. Selecting Mauer as the 60th overall player leaves little room for value and a whole lot of risk. Switching to 1B may help to keep him on the field a little more, but it doesn’t erase all of the previous abuse he has taken. And the cast around him sucks. If he starts to show us flashed of the old Mauer, he will then be IBB dozens of times.
I’ll add a quick postscript to my comment. Many of Mr. Bender’s comments center around Mauer’s lack of “value”, which at a certain point is very true. But I want to emphasize a source of hidden value: players who are seen as lacking upside who actually have some.
For example, Adrian Gonzalez’s price reflects an assumption that his former power is gone for good. While that is fairly likely, there is still a reasonable chance that he could finally find health in his shoulder and see some HR rebound. So, you’re paying the right price for Gonzalez’s likely outcome, with the bonus that there is a very real upside there (without much of a downside) that leaves room for profit.
So with Mauer, even if his price is a bit inflated (his usual numbers projected to a full-season slate of PAs), it still comes with a not insignificant upside given the position change, and while that still might make him not so great a value, it strikes me as far better than that of the likes of a Puig.
I know this isn’t totally related, but since it came up, I’m a big fan of Adrian Gonzalez as a 1B in the draft if you miss the elite. He seems to have a solid floor with likely high RBI totals and good Run totals. Once you get past Goldy, Chris Davis and Miggy (When he gets 1B elgibility) and such, he’s very nice. (I think he could end up better than Fielder and I certainly prefer him to Pujols)
I love it when Bender puts out his ‘Don’t Draft’ list so I know who to target in my upcoming drafts.
Don’t say I didn’t try to warn you. Enjoy 8th place!
Here are the guys in 2012 he said he won’t draft 2011 and 2012 wRC+ and FIP-:
Melky Cabrera: 118(2011)/150(2012)
Chone Figgins: 37/54
Johan Santana: 0/0 (DNP in either year)
Jacoby Ellsbury: 150/84
Carl Crawford: 83/106
Tim Lincecum: 87/113
So we’v got 2 guys who improved, one guy in Figgins who it doesn’t matter that he improved he still stunk, two guys who were worse, and whatever you want to credit Bender with for getting Santana right in saying he won’t do anything.
I don’t get the point here. Why are you looking at 2011 and 2012 numbers? And those sentences need some cleanup.
wRC+ is am awful start to use when wanting to make a point with fantasy. Bender bet on players that were likely to be over rated. Don’t forget that Cabrera was busted for PEDs and almost all of his value was tied to his batting average, and Crawford only played 32 games in 2012. So Bender seems to have been doing pretty well.
Sure you could use wOBA but the results will still be the same. wRC+ will just make it a rate stat which seems a little easier for a quick glance as you have a definitive baseline of 100 and percentages.
“I don’t get the point here. Why are you looking at 2011 and 2012 numbers? ”
This was in reference to Scrivenergm stating that he basically has 0% confidence in Bender’s ability to pick guys to avoid.
Bender put out the same list (actually he put out two) for pre-2012 fantasy drafts basing his opinion off of players 2011 numbers.
My post was an attempt to show what those players did in 2012 compared to 2011 and if Bender was correct in tagging them as players not to draft.
Why would you use wOBA? It isn’t a fantasy stat and doesn’t factor in runs or RBI. These articles are almost always written for standard 5×5 leagues since its the most common format allows readers to more easily assess players in their own unique league settings.
wOBA and wRC+ are better real life metrics than fantasy and as such have no real place in these discussions.
HUR HUR HUR
In the few auction drafts I’ve done so far, I’ve found Mauer routinely going for under $20.
His projections have him producing at the $25-35 player level. I think if you are drafting him for his C eligibility, you will be well rewarded. As a 1B though? Not at all exciting.
Puig scares the hell out of me, but he’s a cheap keeper in my long term keeper league, so I’m sort of stuck with him. Nobody is paying me for the upside and I’m not selling low.
You are absolutely right about Upton.
It seems that in every draft people I have taken place in (1 real life and a bunch of MDCs) are avoiding Mauer as well. At one point does he become a value. I got him as a first catcher in a 14 teamer in the 9th round. I think he justifies that draft pick.
A ninth round pick? Yes. Even I would take Mauer with a ninth round pick in a 14-team league. That’s grabbing value. Getting him in the fourth is not.
When you play in a league where no one likes taking catchers early they become a source of value to zig rather than zag. Got McCann with the next pic. Better option and I have two top 5 catchers in my opinion.
That’s not value, that’s crazy highway robbery!
I don’t get the point of this article. You start with saying these are guys you “won’t draft” and they’re all names of players who can be expected to produce at some level. This isn’t a “don’t draft” list its a “don’t overpay for” list, so what’s an overpay? Its undefined, Bender doesn’t seem to think any of these people are just terrible. Would he avoid Mauer for $15 Mauer in a 12 team AL only? That sounds like a pretty good deal to me, but the list is saying “avoid” these aren’t players to avoid, they’re players Bender suspects are overvalued, but in an article like that you really need to define what the value is, which this article doesn’t do. Avoid Mauer at $40? Ok, I’ll buy into that. Avoid Mauer altogether? And get who? Molina? There is no Chone Figgins on this list, everyone here provides value. You can’t make a blanket declaration that you “won’t be drafting them” because you don’t know precisely what the mindset of your leaguemates is. Any of these players can be a great sleeper depending on what the mindset of your league mates is, but is Bender refusing to draft them at any price?
You make an excellent point, Corey and I just mentioned your comment on Sirius just now. Yes, if the price tags weren’t so inflated (IMO) on Puig and Mauer, I would consider drafting them. It’s about value and should either of them slip further down I would have to take them just based on price paid/potential returns. However, I say I won’t draft them because at the current market price I won’t touch them and I don’t see either slipping through to a more economical spot. Someone in your league is willing to take Puig in the second and Mauer in the fourth. It’s just not me.
Upton, however, I won’t touch at all no matter where he falls to.
Thanks for the input. Much appreciated.
I think won’t draft because any group of 10+ fantasy players will have one player who takes each of them before Mr. Bender would.
I assume he is looking at ADP like everyone else does…
You might want to specify 5×5 — Mauer is a monster in points leagues
Yes, another good point. Thank you.
BJ Upton is still looking for his first hit with the braves where there is a runner on third.
Howard – would you keep Segura over Puig in a keeper league (no restrictions, ie can keep forever, no cost)???
Keep forever at no cost? I would have to say keep Puig. Even though it’s Segura at short and I love having great speed in the middle infield, stolen bases can be had throughout your draft, even though, technically they were down last year. Obviously there’s risk with Puig, but you’ll know after this year whether he’s worth holding for multiple years. If he sucks, then you cut him loose, but if he really does take his game to another level and performs well over a full season, then you have yourself an elite. Good question, Nick. Much appreciated.
I’m in a similar league where we get to keep 4 offensive and 4 pitchers no cost, for as long as we want (6×6 includes BB and Holds).
Currently have:
Trout, Carlos Gonzales, Longoria
Felix, Scherzer, Wainwright, Jansen
Have to decide between Puig and Stanton as my 4th… thoughts?
Also have the ability to trade CarGo and Scherzer for Goldschmidt and Cain/Hamels/Cole. Make that move and does that impact my 4th hitter?
alright, Howard….how about this one.
Same league, would you keep Segura over Posey? (1 catcher league).
@sweetandmauer — so if it were me, I’d go with Puig over Stanton and again, hope for the best with regard to Puig’s maturity and development. He should be a more well-rounded player in the end. Stanton’s injuries were to blame last season, but I think we’re all still overestimating his power, especially in that park. Maybe the Fish trade him, maybe they don’t. But I don’t want to have to wait around and see. As for the trade, it’s real close. Real close. I don;t think you can go wrong either way, so if you think there will be other decent 1B available to you in your draft, then sit tight. If not…if you think you’re going to get stuck sifting through the Matt Adams/Brandon Belt type guys, then make the deal and just pick up some late speed (Revere, maybe Span) in your draft. Good luck!
@Nick Bonnett — I’d lean towards Segura here actually. I love Posey, but catcher is nice and deep. You may not bve able to recover his average, but you’ll certainly be able to recover his power. Keep your (hopefully) elite speed in the infield. All the best.
3 guys to AVOID:
Matt Kemp
Mark Texieria
Starlin Castro
Aw come on, Matlock. Now who am I gonna bash next week?
ha. Dont fret mr. Bender, lots of mlb trash to go around
At first I thought you were calling him Matlock as an insult, which I liked very much.
Is everyone really that down on Starlin Castro? I was looking to target him at SS as someone with bounce back potential…discuss.
I agree on the other 2 though.
should i keeper F Freeman for a 7th round pick – or Billy Hamilton for a 12th round pick. (i already have Goldshmidt)
B. Ham. But only if you’re feeling lucky, punk
@Ben — If you already have Goldy, then go with Hamilton and just hope that he starts to hit from the onset. Just make sure you grab another guy with some decent, albeit cheap, speed in case something happens and Hamilton isn’t delivering early in the season. Good luck!
Puig hit .376 / .442 / .598 in his initial 258 PAs in the big leagues last season.
He hit .255 / .326 / .432 in his remaining 215 PAs, playoffs included.
The league figured him out.
Agreed, he will not be all that mythical this year, despite what “experts” at “ESPN” say
Wait, now ESPN has quotes?
good call, he looks overmatched!
I couldn’t agree more on Mauer. He’s a fantastic player, but contrary to what Mauer fans will believe, he will not likely lead catchers in any single 5×5 roto category. Back in 2009 he was the cream of the crop, but guys like Posey, Molina, and Perez are just as likely to lead in AVG as Mauer. You’re right to argue that Mauer’s supporting cast isn’t going to get him any gaudy R or RBI totals either – especially since his HR potential pales in comparison to Rosario, Santana, Wieters, Posey, McCann – heck, even Gattis. Speaking of Gattis, he’s currently slotted in to bat cleanup in Atlanta. My point is, there’s plenty of late-round value in the catcher slot.
Mauer will put up some nice numbers as a catcher this year, but you’re not likely to get a lot of excess value when you know the guy who’s drafting him is banking on a .330 average and 90 runs.
I am a huge Mauer fan, but I play in leagues that account for OBP (or BB) and SLG (where his doubles come into play). I couldn’t imagine playing in a league that gave no credit to BB (outside of the potential to lead to a R) but, anyways … I agree that in 5×5 I would be nowhere near as high on him, although I could still see him leading the position in R and BA.
Howard,
What part of Dixie are you from that you use the expression “liable” instead of “likely”?
‘cept round these parts, it sounds like “libel”.
He’s libel to start a far if he keeps playing with that lighter…
I think it’s safe to say you were just a tad off with Puig. He is well on his way to becoming one of the best players in baseball.