Will Middlebrooks had a fairly promising future with the Red Sox after being called up in 2012. His 2013 season did not go as planned. A couple of injuries and a demotion caused havoc on his season. Going forward into 2014, his career will be at a cross roads for several reasons.
When discussing a fantasy baseball ‘Least Valuable Player,’ we’re looking at a few different things to factor in. Obviously, an under-performing stat line is one. But we’re also looking at the relative cost of the player in relation to other players at his position. If he didn’t cost you more than a 15th round draft pick or $2 in your auction and he didn’t perform well, then so be it. Very little harm done. But when you’ve used a third or a fourth round pick on him and he doesn’t meet expectations, it’s a much bigger deal. We’re also taking into account that player’s in-season trade value. Some guys who are in a slump, you can still trade them on name and reputation, but when the performance is so bad that no one wants to trade for them, an LVP award is just begging to be won. For me, this season, no one epitomizes the LVP award more than Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro.
When Yuniesky Betancourt earns more fantasy value than you, you know you’ve had a bad season. Or in other terms, if you decided to draft B.J. Upton this year, then you’re gonna have a bad time. According to Zach Sanders’ end of season dollar value calculator, Upton broke the hearts of Braves fans and his fantasy owners by generating negative fantasy value, ranking a sad 461st out of 482 players. When factoring in his ADP of 48, he ranked as the most value-sucking player according to our value leaderboard.
We still haven’t even completed the 2013 season yet, but there’s no doubt that some owners are already looking toward 2014 (or, this other sport called “football”). Whether your team has been torpedoed by injuries to Matt Kemp, Albert Pujols and Derek Jeter or you have considered jumping out your window as the owner of BJ Upton and Starlin Castro, it is never too early to start preparing for next year. Every season, there are breakouts and disappointments, some more surprising than others. Unfortunately, human nature is prone to recency bias, the tendency to weight recent events more than earlier events. This causes players coming off breakout/career years to typically become overvalued in drafts the following season. With that in mind, here are three hitters who will potentially be overvalued in your draft next year.
With just over a month to go, time is running out for offensive disappointments to get back on track and start showing the type of power projected of them before the season began. When a hitter goes through a power drought, there could be a number of explanations, such as an injury, aging effects or good ole’ random variation (read: bad luck/fluke). These five hitters have seen their ISO rates plummet the most compared to last season. Let’s try to figure out what went wrong.
Last Tuesday, I compared the average home run and fly ball distances for qualified hitters with last season. Of the 10 hitters who enjoyed the largest distance surges, 8 of them had also experienced an increased HR/FB rate. Today, I check in on the other side of the coin — those hitters whose distance has declined the most. Whether an injury is to blame or some other explanation is behind the drop, it’s a bad sign for a hitter’s power and HR/FB rate.
Chris Davis owners are experiencing an unexpected surprise this season. Instead of a possible corner infield or injury replacement, they have one of the top players in the league for pennies on the dollar. On the other end of the spectrum is B.J. Upton who Ron Shandler picked to have “40/40 upside”, but is in the discussion has the worst everyday player in the majors. Going into the 2013 season, Davis and Upton were projected to have similar production because of a uncertain skill set and the similarities ended then.
On Monday, I identified four second half breakout candidates based on a combination of traditional evaluation methods I use, which include looks at both average batted ball distance and xBABIP marks. Today I check in on some potential busts for the rest of the season. Owners should strongly consider shopping these players in the hopes of executing a sell high trade.
At the end of April, I used Jeff Zimmerman’s updated xBABIP spreadsheet to determine which players’ BABIPs exceeded their xBABIPs by the greatest amount. Of the five players listed in the initial look, all of them did indeed experience a decline in BABIP, nearly all being a significant falloff. Of course, four of the five were sporting .400+ BABIP marks, so of course even without a formula, you would assume regression was coming. We now sit a bit further along than the exact mid-season mark, so BABIPs are much more reasonable at this point. These are the 10 hitters whose BABIP marks exceed their xBABIP marks by the greatest degree.
“In every life, a little rain must fall.” — My Blue Heaven
In honor of the above statement, we’re going to piggyback Michael Barr’s Definitive Guide To All Things Depressing here and make it catcher specific. While those who made the investment in Buster Posey, Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer are resting easy in the comfort of an all-star catcher’s mitt, there are many of us who saw a golden opportunity this spring to go a little cheaper on our backstops and still land some high-end production. The position seemed unusually deep this year, so really…how bad could it be? Well, there’s an air of disappointment that surrounds many of the catchers we thought we were getting and now we’re all left wondering if any of these guys are actually going to produce. Read the rest of this entry »
