The first half of the 2011 season saw two of the game’s better power hitters fall into a veritable abyss when it came to production.  Both players were joining new teams, both signed big contracts, and both were drafted with home run expectations that were sky high.  But both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn struggled mightily to begin the year, and while those that drafted them were becoming more and more frustrated by the day, other GMs were sitting back and licking their chops, waiting for the moment of a huge buy-low opportunity.  Those that tried it with Uggla just finished reaping the benefits of a 33 game hit streak and a .361-12-28 second half run.  Those of us who chose Dunn?  Well….not so much. Read the rest of this entry »

Wrapping up our survey of disappointing seasons, we turn our attention to shortstops and outfielders.

Shortstops

My pick to hit to his cost the rest of the way: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

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After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues.  It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.

Second Base

My Pick: Dan Uggla

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Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base.  Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward.  But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.

Catcher

My Pick: Joe Mauer

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“Don’t take your love away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If you go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause breaking up his hard to do.”

It plays over and over in my head every time I look at a roster that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer.  Aggravataing?  Yes.  Both the song and the lack of production.  But what’s really aggravating is that question that keeps popping into your head as well, “How long do I stick with this guy?” Read the rest of this entry »

All of us deep league managers have to do the dirty deed at some point and pick up a player that makes us feel dirty. I still have Juan Pierre on my 20-team roster, for example. Hey, 100 outfielders start in that league, who cares how ugly he is right now. And I don’t mean in the face. He’s handsome enough I guess.

But here are two pitchers that you should avoid in pretty much every league. They just don’t have the underlying skills to be much better than average, and with pitching in abundance these days, there’s someone better out there. Even in NL- and AL-only leagues.

Guillermo Moscoso (1% owned in Yahoo)
He struck out eight Marlins! He’s given up one run in his last 17 2/3 innings! He pitches in a home-run-suppressing park! Yes, but. There really isn’t a single specific skill that you can hang your hat on with Moscoso. He has a putrid 4.6 K/9 which is supported by a bad swinging strike rate (5.4%). He’s had good control in the minor leagues, but his 3.56 BB/9 right now is below-average (hey! not terrible!). He has yet to show his minor league walk rate (2.5 BB/9 in MiLB) in the major leagues (3.90 BB/9). Last, but not least, he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher. His ground-ball rate this year is is 24.6%, and even with his other 14 2/3 major league innings added in, it only ‘jumps’ to 26.5%. Other players have come up and been underwhelming in their first 50-odd major league innings, but there doesn’t seem to be much upside here either. His Triple-A strikeout rate was around eight per nine, and that’s just not enough for a fly ball guy unless he has elite control. Until you see a bunch of zero-walk games, he’s a miss. Even then…

Vance Worley (5% owned)
This one might be more controversial. He’s probably going to end up fairly valuable to his real-life team, filling in as a fifth-sixth starter. The Vanimal has a 2.57 ERA of course, and his 3.44 FIP isn’t terrible. In his case, though, it seems that his 4.14 xFIP has a little more to say about his true talent level. Worley features the same sort of underwhelming stuff as Moscoso. 50 innings into his major league career, he has a 5.5% swinging strike rate. It’s built on a 91 MPH fastball, a decent 85 MPH slider, a rarely-used curveball and (by linear weights values at least) a poor changeup. If the changeup is indeed poor, he will be susceptible to bouts of ineffectiveness versus left-handed hitters. He gets some groundballs (46% career), but that’s only a tick above average (44% most years). Once his home runs per fly ball normalize (4.2% right now), more balls will leave his comfy little home park, and his ERA will balloon. He could be a spot-starter in some deep leagues, but don’t rely on the Vanimal, cause he might bite you.

Complaint time, folks!  I got my crying hat on today…

We’ve all heard it a million times before — every year, every site, every pre-draft advice column — fantasy championships are won in the later rounds of your draft.  When you’re getting third round production from your 22nd round pick, your team is destined for success.  What they don’t say is that, while that may be true for the most part, you also need for your first and second round picks to produce accordingly.  If not, then you’re in a little bit of trouble.  The work it takes to recover from a first or even second round bust is plentiful and can be an agonizing task. Read the rest of this entry »

It may look like the only way for Dan Uggla’s season to head is up. That is probably true, but he also has some underlying issues, beyond a low BABIP, that are causing his bad season.

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This is more of a Kicking Rocks sort of piece, but it’s Memorial Day Weekend, so let’s have some fun…

Perhaps the title is a bit inflammatory.  In all likelihood, Russell Branyan has no idea who you are and couldn’t care less about who’s on your fantasy team or where you are in your standings.  He’s just a guy out there trying to make a living playing a game that he loves.  But in the spirit of being a mock GM and the need to release some of our angst and frustration with hopes of giving the bleeding ulcer a rest, we vent about players as if we’ve known them for years and that their negative performances are actually stemming from some sort of a personal attack.  That being said, I would like to share my deep-seeded hate for the 35 year old Branyan and the fact that he does everything in his power to ruin my fantasy seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

A brief (and terrible) joke: What is up with Nick Swisher?

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