Archive for Busts

“In every life, a little rain must fall.” — My Blue Heaven

In honor of the above statement, we’re going to piggyback Michael Barr’s Definitive Guide To All Things Depressing here and make it catcher specific. While those who made the investment in Buster Posey, Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer are resting easy in the comfort of an all-star catcher’s mitt, there are many of us who saw a golden opportunity this spring to go a little cheaper on our backstops and still land some high-end production. The position seemed unusually deep this year, so really…how bad could it be? Well, there’s an air of disappointment that surrounds many of the catchers we thought we were getting and now we’re all left wondering if any of these guys are actually going to produce. Read the rest of this entry »

Yes, the sell highiest. The easiest way to identify buy low and sell high candidates among starting pitchers is to export the advanced tab of the leader board into Excel and then simply subtract the pitcher’s SIERA from his ERA. Sort and voilà, you now have your list of pitchers who are most outperforming and underperforming their SIERA marks. Of course, you shouldn’t blindly take that list as gospel, as some pitchers have proven that they can consistently post ERAs higher or lower than their SIERAs. But it’s the quickest way to generate a list of names for further analysis.

After performing this exercise, Matt Moore was not the biggest SIERA outperformer. But, given his name value and preseason draft cost, he is the one most worth shopping. He currently ranks eighth among all qualified starters in ERA outperformance, with a 4.11 SIERA versus a 2.29 ERA. While that alone should make him a sell high candidate, there are additional warning signs beneath the surface.

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It’s easy to make buy low and sell high calls. Anyone could compare a player’s current season ranking with his preseason and blindly advise fantasy owners to acquire or trade away said player. While that advice sometimes does have value, perhaps more beneficial is identifying players you should not attempt to buy at a discount or trade away at an assumed profit. That is why we sometimes have the “Not a Sleeper, Not a Bust” segment on The Sleeper and the Bust podcast, as we highlight players who should not be purchased at a discount (and are therefore Not a Sleeper) or sold high (and are therefore Not a Bust). So sticking with the Not a Sleeper theme, this is why I am not buying B.J. Upton.

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Last year around this time I was sitting and watching a Royals spring training game and absolutely beaming with sheer delight every time either Eric Hosmer or Lorenzo Cain came to bat. I had just finished drafting in my primary keeper league and after holding over Hosmer from a rookie season of deliciousness, added his teammate to the mix for a reasonable sum of six bid dollars. The two of them were going off last spring. Batting averages consistently over .400, home runs, stolen bases, Hosmer was working in the outfield ready to add dual-eligibility to his resume and it was fixin’ to be one helluva season. But then the season opened and….well….you know. Cain got hurt and hit the DL within the first week and Hosmer went from super-stud to super-dud in a matter of minutes. Obviously you can’t predict injuries, but there were some warning signs with Hosmer that I guess I chose to overlook given the way he was playing at the time. So with that, I decided to look at some of the hot springs that may entice you to draft, but should probably be left alone for the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Finally, we get to the starting pitchers, my favorite position. If you thought there was room for disagreement among the outfielders, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The many disagreements of value among starters and the multitude of later round sleeper options is precisely why my strategy in every single draft/auction I participate in is to pay the least for my staff or wait many a round to draft my first starter. For this last episode of Pod’s Picks, I will only look at those I ranked in the top 84 as bullish picks, while the bearish group will include those in the consensus top 84. I went with 84 assuming about seven starters per team in a 12-team mixed league would earn positive value.

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Last week I looked at a few underrated and overrated position player prospects. This week I wanted to follow that up by doing the same thing with some pitching prospects. The rule with prospects is always caveat emptor as they can’t typically be counted on for consistent production or performance. Still, “hitting” on a few helpful guys your league opponents didn’t expect to be useful can lead your team to fantasy glory.

Remember that these players are being evaluated entirely for their 2013 usefulness, without regard to keeper or dynasty implications.

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It’s unlikely any 2013 rookie will have the impact in fantasy that Mike Trout did last season. Actually, it’s kind of unlikely any rookie will have the kind of fantasy impact that Trout did last season again in our lifetimes. Sure, prospects are generally speaking poor bets for consistent production. Yet, every year a few of these long shot bets come through and pay off big. Over the last decade names such as Trout, Craig Kimbrel, Albert Pujols and Rocco Baldelli all helped bring home fantasy titles to their many delighted owners. You don’t even need to find a Trout – which is good because, again, that’s really unlikely! Sometimes a Todd Frazier fills a need perfectly for a team lacking a third baseman. Hitting on a useful prospect or two like that can really make the difference for your fantasy team.

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Yesterday, I unveiled the top 10 list of good names with regards to both No Doubt percentage and Just Enough percentage from the home run classification buckets on ESPN Home Run Tracker. Today, I will present the negative nellies. These hitters are at greater risk for HR/FB rate decline this season, so it might not be a bad idea to use as a tie-breaker if debating between a hitter on the list and someone else.

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The Texas Rangers’ hopes for contention in the strong AL West depends on whether their starting pitching can take a step forward. The club enters the year with more uncertainty at the position than they’ve experienced in recent seasons. In the past, the team had enough depth at the position to survive a let-down or injury. With Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz out until at least mid-season, the club could be in trouble if any of their top-five options falter.

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It’s pretty rare for a player who was still a rookie at age-29 to ever stumble into a full-time role. But that’s precisely what Justin Ruggiano is looking to do this spring. A minor leaguer since 2004, Ruggiano didn’t lose his major-league rookie status until 2011, when he was 29-years-old. Not surprisingly, the list of 29-year-old rookies that go on to have successful careers is pretty short, and the Miami Marlins seemed to agree at first, as Ruggiano began 2012 in the minors. But a combination of his performance, and the club’s need for hitting, propelled Ruggiano back into the majors at age-30. This time, he didn’t disappoint. After 320 plate appearances with a .313/.374/.535 slash line, and a .390 wOBA, Ruggiano has emerged as a sleeper. But given the track record of players with his path to the majors, he’s already fighting against the odds.

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