It’s not even April yet and the closer carousel is in full swing. Here. We. Go.

• Before the game started, White Sox manager Robin Ventura named Matt Lindstrom the team’s closer over Nate Jones and Daniel Webb. I apologize in leading anyone to draft Nate Jones but Ventura hadn’t named a closer and Jones was the most compelling option on the team. He likely still is the best option, but the ninth inning belongs to Lindstrom now and he succeeded today, converting his first save of the year against the Twins. Lindstrom isn’t a particularly exciting reliever with high K-rates but he throws hard, kills worms and is generally pretty good. He’s also closing now and should be owned by all teams. I can’t imagine Nate Jones will be setting up games all season but whether he’s closing games in August or May I can’t really tell you, and it might largely rely on the bullpen health and effectiveness of other teams. Regardless, Nate Jones profiles to give teams value outside of receiving save opportunities. If you need saves and missed out on Lindstrom on the waiver wire, a sneaky play might be acquiring Jones via trade or waivers as he will likely finish the year with a handful of opportunities.

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Happy “Opening Night!” Well, domestically at least. An early version of the Bullpen Report tonight since your author is on his way to San Diego (unfortunately, I’ll be in the air during Dodgers/Padres and not in a seat).

• The big surprise this afternoon was the annoucement Casey Janssen will open the season on the disabled list with a back strain. The news is odd timing; Janssen had battled shoulder weakness during the spring, but had just made his spring debut last week (and pitched Thursday and Friday). If the team had any inkling he’d have to open the season on the DL, they likely wouldn’t have thrown him in major league games, because his stint is now backdated to March 29th, meaning he’s not eligible to return until around the 3rd week of the season (at the earliest).

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A few brief notes out of the bullpens on Thursday:

-The St. Louis Cardinals’ inked veteran right-hander David Aardsma on Wednesday to compete for a spot out of the bullpen. The Cards are looking to carry five right-handers in the ‘pen to open the regular season, and with three of the five claimed by Carlos Martinez, Pat Neshek and Trevor Rosenthal, Aardsma appears to be battling three others for the last two spots. The fantasy-relevant (to some of us) odd-man out here could potentially be Seth Maness, who finished tied with Randy Choate for the second-most holds among Cardinal arms in twenty-thirteen. Maness’ 5-2 record, 2.32 ERA and 15 holds last season may not be enough to overshadow the righty’s struggles in Cactus League play. Southpaws Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist along with flame throwing righty, Carlos Martinez, figure to be logging the majority of the holds in St. Louis this year.
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• Papa Grande is back and he’s back big! Two bits of news today sent Jose Valverde’s value skyrocketing in fantasy leagues. OK, “skyrocketing” is an exaggeration. But first, the Mets demoted popular sleeper Vic Black early on Wednesday. Black’s control issues reared their ugly head in Florida, as the 26-year-old walked 10 in 9.1 innings. He has the stuff to be elite (33+% K% the last couple years between minor league stops), but will work on his command in Triple-A. If you bought in dynasty leagues, hold on, but he’s droppable in redrafts. He’ll be sitting on the wire if you need him later in the season.

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Spring training is nearing its end (thankfully) and as managers finalize the end of their roster, the last bullpen spots are being decided. Here are a few items from today:

• We learned yesterday that Joakim Soria would be closing games in Texas and now we found out that Neftali Feliz was optioned to Triple-A. From GM Jon Daniels:  “He’s healthy and his work ethic has been solid, but he needs some work and the best place to get him that is in Round Rock right now. I expect he’ll be back as soon as he’s ready to help us.” When that will be I’m not entirely sure, and I don’t know if the Rangers are either. If Feliz is healthy as Daniels says and only throwing 91-93 MPH then he likely won’t be the force that he was the first time he was a closer in Texas. Feliz certainly doesn’t have to touch 100 MPH on his fastball to be effective, but this current version of Feliz isn’t the same pitcher we’re used to seeing. I don’t doubt that Feliz will be back in Texas but I also think that he’ll remain a set up option at best, with Soria holding closing duties for the duration of the season.

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Spring is finally here and Spring Training is almost gone. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks gave us a little taste (or a tease) but luckily by this time next week the games will count, just like the All-Star Game. There will likely be a few more shakeups to the bullpens as rosters are finalized, which will naturally affect the table below, but the Bullpen Report is back on the grind with daily updates for all your save vulturing needs.

• Neftali Feliz just isn’t right and Joakim Soria will begin the season as the closer. I don’t expect the Mexicutioner  Soria to return to his KC level of performance but he should be more than adequate and the competition behind him is basically relievers who have returned to the pen after failed starting campaigns. I assume Feliz will show his face again in Texas but it won’t be in the ninth inning, while Tanner Scheppers joins the rotation and Alexi Ogando moves back into the pen. What I said in the beginning of March still applies now to Soria, except he now has the job: “He wasn’t spectacular [in 2013] as his BB/9 ballooned to a career high 5.32 but he still had a respectable 3.80/3.68/3.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP and more importantly showed that he was healthy. If Soria could cut back his walks to his career norms he will be an intriguing option and arguably the best one for Texas.” With the competition behind him pretty meager and with Feliz not guaranteed to even start the season in Texas, Soria’s job should be secure and there is a chance he could provide really good value for your fantasy team. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the things I’ve really had to spend time on as I’ve transitioned to much deeper, dynasty-style leagues over the past few years is relief pitching. In a standard league, I can get away with taking one or two weaker closers towards the back end of drafts, fill out RP slots with some high upside guys, and churn the wire for the next flavor of the week. However, if you’re playing in a 16-team dynasty league with 40-man rosters, you can’t quite get away with that strategy. Danny Farquhar is the new closer? Taken. Looks like Jim Henderson has taken John Axford’s job? He’s been gone for weeks. Koji Uehara is the new ninth inning guy? Please, he was drafted months ago.

So while I still don’t pay heavily for guys with the closer(TM) tag, I have become much more interested in trying to snag high-upside, late draft relievers. If possible, I also try and grab guys on their way up, since we know fastball velocity is strongly tied to reliever strikeouts and said fastball velocity peaks early. Very early. There are a few names that stand out in 2014 who may be interesting options. All three have massively suppressed stocks after iffy seasons last year as well as the added benefit of being barely old enough to legally purchase a case of Coors Light. Yes, they may not be as high on the projection-based rankings as a guy like, say, Steve Delabar, but their lottery ticket upside is more intriguing. Not to mention having more upside for 2014 is great, but beyond is even better, too.

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I’ve seen it said that bullpens win championships, but I think it’s probably just the last piece of the puzzle for a contending team. That’d be hard to tease out in the numbers, but it certainly doesn’t make sense for a team like the Astros to spend resources on their bullpen. They’ve taken it to the extreme in some cases, by trading any and every reliever that had any interest on the market.

That’s how you get an Astros bullpen that was by far the worst in the league last year. By a large margin. At 5.09, their FIP was almost a full run worse than second-worst (Cubs, 4.23). And they ‘accrued’ -5.4 wins. The other four teams with below-replacement pens lost .2 wins or less to their relievers as a group. So, yeah, it was a really bad bullpen.

Two thoughts come to mind about a bad bullpen. The first is that there’s always opportunity in situations like those. Bad teams make for sleepers, since the traditional media focuses on better teams and those players get more name recognition. So don’t ignore the team. But! Bad teams — especially those that don’t score a lot of runs and have bad bullpens around the closer — bad teams do not provide a lot of save opportunities.

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No team gave up as many runs in the seventh inning or later last postseason, and so one offseason goal was clear for the Tigers: improve the bullpen. So the Tigers started at the back end of the bullpen and are finalizing the details for a two-year contract with Joe Nathan. They had the money because of recent cost-saving measures, and they had the need, and the contract isn’t long. What’s the prognosis for Nathan over the next two years?

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Jim Johnson surrendered a hit and fanned one in a clean inning of work to notch his 48th save of the season. The thirty-year-old has now saved nine in-a-row, making him 48-of-57 on the season. The Orioles will face the Red Sox in a three-game series to conclude the twenty-thirteen season, giving Johnson a few more opportunities to eclipse the 50 save mark for the second straight season. Aside from the lack of production in the strikeout category, Johnson paid handsome dividends for his fantasy baseball owners that were willing to reach for him at his average draft position of 123.

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