Bullpen Report: March 26, 2014
• Papa Grande is back and he’s back big! Two bits of news today sent Jose Valverde’s value skyrocketing in fantasy leagues. OK, “skyrocketing” is an exaggeration. But first, the Mets demoted popular sleeper Vic Black early on Wednesday. Black’s control issues reared their ugly head in Florida, as the 26-year-old walked 10 in 9.1 innings. He has the stuff to be elite (33+% K% the last couple years between minor league stops), but will work on his command in Triple-A. If you bought in dynasty leagues, hold on, but he’s droppable in redrafts. He’ll be sitting on the wire if you need him later in the season.
Marc Carig also reported that the Mets plan on easing Bobby Parnell back into action in 2014, throwing him out there no more than two days in a row. Snide remarks about the Mets needing a closer more frequently than that aside, if that situation persists throughout the entire month of April, there probably are a few scab saves to be had. And it sounds like Valverde is the guy. The blonde-bearded righty wasn’t terrible last year in his brief return to the Tigers, but his 22% K% didn’t match up well with his 8% SwStr%. If he can keep the walk rate down (it’s dropped each of the past four seasons) he can pass for a competent reliever, but without stuff to put past people, I wouldn’t invest too heavily unless I was really, really desperate for early-season SV.
• Setup man Dane de la Rosa will start the year on the disabled list. The big righty posted a 3.34 SIERA and was likely second in line in the Los Angeles bullpen. Unfortunately, his forearm hasn’t been cooperating and he’ll cede early-season setup man duties to Joe Smith with Kevin Jepsen (every time I say his name the theme song from The Jetsons plays over and over in my head) moving up the totem pole. Smith won’t rack up the whiffs like de la Rosa can, but his low arm slot has helped him post a steady diet of 3.40ish SIERAs the last three years. He’s a pretty good bet for holds. If you drafted de la Rosa with the idea of handcuffing Ernesto Frieri (or gambling on Frieri’s control being a major issue), he’s dumpable. Remember, he’s now got a bullpen ladder to reclimb and there are other juicy middle relievers sitting in “underowned land” (ex: Kelvin Herrera remains unowned in 19 of 20 Yahoo! leagues).
• Jeremy Affeldt is going to the DL to open the season. Javier Lopez becomes your new left-handed setup guy for the time being if you are scrounging for holds. Luke Hochevar injury replacement Louis Coleman is looking likely to miss the start of the year with a bruised finger. Before getting too excited about (insert Triple-A fodder here), it sounds like the Royals might go with 11 pitchers until Coleman is ready. Jesse Crain will throw his first bullpen after offseason biceps surgery on Thursday. I’m always leery about relievers coming back mid-season from major injury, but with the fluidity that is the Astros bullpen, he’s a name to file away on your watch list.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Thanks in advance for a year of this. So very helpful. Do you have enough energy to give a top 10 list of NL relievers who have potential for 5+ saves (no closer role to start the year), good ratios, and lots of Ks?
I can do 5 from the iPad. Benoit is top of that list. Brothers also obvious. Putz, Clippard, and someone from the Crain/Fields duo. I like Crain if he shows he’s healthy but as I mentioned above, needs to prove it first.
Maybe add these too: Ramos, Strop?
Crain/Fields? Astros are AL.
To be fair, it’s going to take me about 10 years before I think “AL” when I think of the Astros. I’m just settling into the Brewers being an NL team.
Yeah, it’s baby steps with the Astros/AL thing, although I thought I was finally getting better on that at the end of last year.
Maybe Melancon too?
Why is Daniel Webb not worthy of inclusion on the chart for the White Sox?
Webb is still fighting for the last spot on the roster. He’s one of those guys (similar to Carter Capps and Heath Hembree) who have the upside to race up the depth chart even if they’re the last man kept on the 25-man, but if he heads to the minors you’ll have to wait a few months to worry about that.
Any thoughts on me signing with the White Sox?
I know some people liked Daniel Webb but he may get sent down to the minors now.
You’re out of options, so Chicago is either going to keep you up or try to slip you through waivers. You made it through the entire NL, so it might work, but it depends on whether you make a good impression over the next week.
I believe KC is taking about using Wade Davis as the Hochevar replacement.
Yep on Davis with some possible saves according to Frank Yosty.
http://www.kansascity.com/2014/03/08/4874357/royals-move-wade-davis-to-bullpen.html
Davis is also SP eligible in ESPN leagues giving him that little bit of extra value.
I should have rephrased. He’s was to be Luke Hochevar’s replacement on the 25-man, but his (Hochevar’s) injury actually slid Herrera back a slot and Davis from SP into the late innings.
Coleman (when healthy) is still probably the 6th most appealing option from a fantasy standpoint in that bullpen (Holland, Herrera, Davis, Crow, Collins).
I’m in a holds league and drafted Jake McGee. I thought he’d be the main setup man and am wondering if that corresponds to the “first” after the closer column. If so, I’m surprised to see Bell and Peralta ahead of McGee.
Holds does not necessarily equal next-in-line for closer (although are usually relatively correlated).
I haven’t scouted out the Rays pen a ton yet this year, so it’s a better question for one of the other BR guys, but the Rays has talked Bell up this offseason, he has a history of closing, and the team has been successful taking short-term deals and pumping up their value via the 9th inning.
The Tiger fan in me really must rebut this statement: Jose Valverde, “[t]he blonde-bearded righty[,] wasn’t terrible last year in his brief return to the Tigers.”
In 2013, Valverde blew 3 out of 12 save opportunities, had a 5.59 ERA and posted a -0.5 fWAR, which is hard to do in just 19 IP. The results were terrible.
The process was terrible too. A career high of 83% fastballs and it seemed higher because he could never really get the splitter going. Lowest zone % of his career: Valverde didn’t have the stuff to throw it by batters anyway, had to nibble and hope they chased balls, and occasionally had to groove one down the middle because he was pitching from behind. 24% HR/FB ratio was sky high.
If you didn’t watch him, you might see signs of hope, like the K/BB ratio at the major league level. If you watched him, you would have been amazed that he enjoyed a bit of initial success with the Tigers before he combusted.
Sorry to play the part of Tiger fanboy, but Valverde really was terrible last year.
The truth is probably somewhere in between.
I will admit, I went to make a snide remark that the 24% HR/FB% was too high, even if I tried sneaking my 80 mph fastball past big league hitters, but then I remembered a game against someone (Red Sox?) where Valverde gave up three moonshots to the track to notch a 1-2-3 inning.
It was a strong candidate for most uncomfortable perfect inning in the history of ninth innings.
I think his platoon splits were pretty horrible too (vs LHB: 279/354/558!). LHB have been hitting him hard for the past few years.
19 IP last year is probably too small to worry about platoon splits (or any other splits) too much. However, the platoon problem does make sense from what he threw last year because his fastball has considerable movement toward the arm side, away from LHB but toward RHB.
I’ve seen some good things written about Will Smith this off season/spring. I’m wondering what your thoughts are on him? It seems Milwaukee would have to go through a catastrophe in the bullpen for him to become Saves relevant. But with that being said, do you think he could eventually get a chance from Roenicke (the whole lefty thing) and run with it?
I like Smith as a holds guys b/c if he’s used in lefty-heavy type situations he can post ridiculous whiff rates.
That said, he’s mediocre (at best) against RHP. He did make some gains last year (although still only struck out half as many RHB as LHB), but I think he’d have to sustain them for at least another few months before I’d consider using him against more than the occasionally righty.