Bullpen Report: March 24, 2014
Spring is finally here and Spring Training is almost gone. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks gave us a little taste (or a tease) but luckily by this time next week the games will count, just like the All-Star Game. There will likely be a few more shakeups to the bullpens as rosters are finalized, which will naturally affect the table below, but the Bullpen Report is back on the grind with daily updates for all your save vulturing needs.
• Neftali Feliz just isn’t right and Joakim Soria will begin the season as the closer. I don’t expect the Mexicutioner Soria to return to his KC level of performance but he should be more than adequate and the competition behind him is basically relievers who have returned to the pen after failed starting campaigns. I assume Feliz will show his face again in Texas but it won’t be in the ninth inning, while Tanner Scheppers joins the rotation and Alexi Ogando moves back into the pen. What I said in the beginning of March still applies now to Soria, except he now has the job: “He wasn’t spectacular [in 2013] as his BB/9 ballooned to a career high 5.32 but he still had a respectable 3.80/3.68/3.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP and more importantly showed that he was healthy. If Soria could cut back his walks to his career norms he will be an intriguing option and arguably the best one for Texas.” With the competition behind him pretty meager and with Feliz not guaranteed to even start the season in Texas, Soria’s job should be secure and there is a chance he could provide really good value for your fantasy team.
• By now we have all seen the picture and we are thankful that Aroldis Chapman is okay. He was even able to visit the Reds clubhouse on Sunday and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Mike Petriello did a great job dissecting the Reds bullpen situation with Chapman out and expects J.J. Hoover to take over closing duties in his absence. Jonathan Broxton would be the favored candidate but he’s likely to start the season on the DL. Hoover isn’t fantastic but he’s certainly a capable reliever (career 9.12 K/9; 3.38 FIP) and with Brox out himself, I’d expect Hoover to hold the job until Aroldis is back and healthy.
• The Houston Astros and Bo Porter are going with a closer-by-committee approach to start the season which essentially means stay away. I’m a fan of dirty saves as much as anyone else but last year at least Jose Veras was the unquestioned closer in Houston. Several guys stand to get a chance but if I had to choose one I would say it’s Chad Qualls who will get the majority of the few saves that will come Houston’s way early on. Josh Fields, Matt Albers and really anyone who ends up making Houston’s pen stands a decent chance to snag a save or two as well. Jesse Crain is still recovering from a variety of offseason ailments and I’d bet the over on whatever the date is on his return but he remains the best choice of the bunch. I wouldn’t waste any pick of value or more than $1 or $2 in the deepest of leagues on Crain, but as the most talented reliever (when healthy) he’s worth a speculative add that you could stash on your DL while the committee goes to work.
• My apologies for not following up on a ‘Deep Coma’ save sleepers post, but here a few guys who’s names aren’t listed on the chart but should creep up in the future: Heath Hembree, Dellin Betances and Alex Meyer. Hembree has been optioned to Triple-A, despite a strong spring. Hembree was also lights out at the end of last season on the Giants and should be back in San Francisco again this season. If something were to happen to Romo, who isn’t a pillar of stability, Hembree might be the most exciting option although there are several guys he would need to leap frog. Alex Meyer is most certainly a starting pitching prospect but the Twins have had some success in years past bringing up their top young guns in a relief role to begin their careers. Meyer won’t be closing games over Glen Perkins and his new contract but he could help your ratios and strikeouts and holds later this summer.
The Yankees bullpen right now consists of David Robertson, a few retreads and non household names and Dellin Betances. Betances is the first ‘Killer Bee’ to make it to the majors and although his career as starter is likely long gone, he’s made excellent strides as reliever. He was largely uninspiring in his MLB debut last season but was able to strikeout 108 batters in 84 innings in AAA last year with a 2.68 ERA and matching 2.69 FIP. This spring Betances is proving he belongs in the majors, throwing 10.1 innings allowing one earned run while striking out nine batters. Spring Training stats are largely meaningless but Betances has certainly impressed and there isn’t much competition in Yankees bullpen – Betances could certainly be seeing meaningful innings in the majors soon.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
any word on jason grilli’s velocity? i was hoping i might catch him on espn today but the game got rained out.
michael tonkin in minnesota?
I believe he was cut from Minnesota recently. He should be back with the team again this year soon enough. He has some potential in the pen with over a strike out per inning in his minor league career.
*Kyuji Fujikawa
This was perhaps the 83rd time I referred to him by Koji, thanks for the notice, it’s been fixed.
Any thoughts on Latroy Hawkins? Is he worth owning?
He’s near the top of the list for closers that might lose their jobs but he’s definitely the closer for the Rockies and therefore worth owning. I wouldn’t invest much in his services but he should be good for at least 10-15 saves and maybe more if he’s able to kill worms in the thin air.
Yessss the bullpen report is back. Keep up the good work, it is vital.
Thanks man, we most certainly will!
Minor nitpick: Andrew Brackman was the first “killer bee” to make his big league debut with a cup of coffee in 2011.
Of course, you can’t be blamed for wanting to forget about it.
Wow, I completely forgot about that! I think he’s struggling in the low minors right now. I think the Yankees are allergic to Bees.
Soria does not like the nickname “Mexicutioner”.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/soria_asks_everyone_to_stop_calling_him_the_mexicutioner_read_more_htt
Ah, thanks for the heads-up. I shall stop using the nickname.
Daniel Webb, CHI (AL)?
Yeah, Lindstrom has only 2 IP (3 ER) and Belisario has been terrible (4:4 K:BB, 7.36 ERA). Why isn’t Webb ahead of them with his 5:0 K:BB?
Unless I hear something more specific from the manager I wasn’t going to shuffle the chart based on a few innings pitched. Webb’s time will likely come soon as a more higher leverage reliever, but until I’m told otherwise I’m keeping Lindstrom and Belisario there.
Any ideas on Josh Colmenter of AZ?
The Dbacks have too many other options after Reed in Putz, Ziegler and Hernandez for Colmenter to see any ninth innings, or really any higher leveraged innings. I assume he’ll mostly be used to eat up innings.
Ben, Vic Black is slowly losing a roster spot and his spring has been worse than a train wreck. It’s likely Papa Grande as the next in line and maybe.. just maybe, Familia waiting in the wings?
Papa Grande finds a way onto this chart every year doesn’t he?
I’d like to think the Mets would give Black a fair shot as a few spring innings aren’t THAT important or meaningful but his control certainly has been an issue throughout his career. Familia would definitely be next in line, but it’s not as if he’s had fine control in his career either.
I’ll definitely be monitoring this situation. For now I’ll keep as is but I’m doing this again tonight and will update then based on anything that comes up today.
He sure does, getting more grande every year too! Spring isn’t always an indicator but man Vic Black has stunk it up really bad. I’m excited about Familia in his body of work so far, he looks like he can be a pretty nasty arm out of the pen in leverage situations.
Gonzales Germen has also not pitched well so you’re right, it’s making the back of that bullpen a little murky.
Have been hearing a lot of hype on Nick Vincent, why did you give Torres the nod over him as the Padres Second?
This early it’s all speculation but the Padres gave up a few players of value for Torres services and I think they want him pitching important innings. He is a lefty who’s able to throw multiple innings so his chances as being the fulltime closer seem slim, but he could certainly get a few saves on lefty heavy lineups if/when Street goes down.
That said, Nick Vincent is damn good himself. It’s pretty fluid at this point and this chart should have a few changes as we inch towards the real opening day. Bottom line is the Padres have a killer bullpen, what else is new?
I am in a deep NL only fantasy league. I need 2 or 3 high upside middle relievers with high K rates, and very low ERA and WHIP, and they need to begin the season in the majors, any ideas?
Well, speaking of the devil, Joaquin Benoit, Nick Vincent and Alex Torres are some good options in SD. Jonathan Broxton could be a nice DL stash. David Carpenter was quietly very awesome last year.
Do you need speculative saves or just ratios/Ks?
Good to know who you will be targeting, Ben.
Benoit will likely be drafted too early for me, Broxton’s ratios are way too high. Saves are not important, just need sub-1.20 WHIP and preferably sub-3.20 ERA with 55+ Ks
No Jake McGee in TB? He’s dropped behind Bell in the pecking order now?
This might be wishful thinking or guessing but given TB’s history of churning out quality performances from other people’s trash I expect Bell to be second in line. As any other quality lefty arm, McGee could see saves against lefty heavy lineups. Additionally, Bell was secretly not bad last year if you squint just enough. He gave up far too many HRs but his xFIP was 3.08 and his SIERA was even more impressive at 2.78. He also had a 9.87 K/9 with the best BB/9 of his career.
So, in STL Martinez is now the primary set up man? I am in a holds league and was thinking to pick up Siegrist. I take it that Martinez is now the better pick up for holds? If so, does he project better than Siegrist (his numbers were pretty ridiculous last year)? I would be dropping Walden (locked in as setup guy and K, but questions otherwise).
Hmm interesting. There is always the threat of Martinez rejoining the rotation but for now he’s in the pen and if he’s in the pen he’s probably their next best option after Rosie.
Siegrist is damn impressive himself but is a lefty, but he also will continue to be a fixture in the back of the pen all year which isn’t a guarantee with Martinez.
Walden is somewhat hurt with a hammy injury but should be OK, I’m not entirely sure I’d drop Walden for Martinez necessarily if I only want holds.
Thanks for the reply. I think I’m going to stick with Walden right now, but with a short leash. Yes, I’m looking for holds, but I have a feeling that either Siegrist or Martinez will have better ratios.
Hawkins or Hoover while Chapman is out?