I was a FanGraphs reader long before I became a scribe for them, and writing this is like coming up onstage for the first time at an open mic night at your favorite bar. Fortunately, it’s that time of the year when we’re allowed to dream big, and since the word “bold” is right in the title, there’s no shame in digging deep and sending out some Hail Mary passes as dawn rises on the 2014 season.
I keep making these bold predictions, and keep hitting about .300 on them. No idea if that says I’m not bold enough or if there’s some predictability in the crazy things that happen each year.
Really, that last reason is why we make these predictions every year. Crazy stuff happens every year, and it takes a little elasticity of the mind to consider the possibilities of the coming season. Maybe by doing this we’ll be in a better spot to reap the rewards when crazy things do happen. Sure, 70% of the following will not happen. But 30% probably will! And as long as you don’t invest too much in the possibility, and keep an eye on the floor, you might be able to use our bold predictions to your advantage.
This year, there’s a bit of a wrinkle: Jay Long of Razzball and I are having a gentleman’s wager regarding our Bold Predictions. With some right of veto on each other’s predictions, we’re putting our ten up against each other. His will publish on Razzball later today. Loser buys the winner a six pack of craft beer.
In last year’s Bold Predictions, I strongly advocated Jean Segura and Jarrod Parker, while steering people away from Starlin Castro. Those surely helped fantasy owners to various extents. However, we’ll ignore the fact that I predicted Brett Anderson to be a top-30 starter. Sorry about that.
Let’s get to the bold predictions for 2014.
(1) Chris Carter will hit at least 40 home runs and be a top-25 outfielder.
Earlier this offseason, I noted how Chris Carter’s hitting profile compared favorably to that of Chris Davis from a year ago, leading one to believe the power spike could be possible. Carter has also hit 39 homers in a single season before in the minors, so it’s not as if we’re worried about the requisite power being present. Furthermore, the 27-year-old slugger didn’t do the one thing everyone thought he would do last season: mash the baseball in Minute Maid Park.
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 285 | .164 | .277 | .328 | .164 | 10 |
| Away | 300 | .279 | .360 | .565 | .286 | 19 |
Minute Maid Park is extremely friendly to right-handed hitters, largely due to the Crawford Boxes, and Carter did little damage there. If his numbers bounce back at home and he’s able to continue his power-hitting ways on the road, we could be looking at one of the biggest power breakout seasons of the year. Considering he’s currently going 193 overall in drafts — behind the likes of Jed Lowrie, Kendrys Morales, and Alejandro De Aza — I’m buying hard on Chris Carter as we head into the 2014 regular season.
When people much smarter than myself, e.g. Jeff Zimmerman, get to be self deprecating over going 1-for-10, what does that make me? Time to see how well poorly I did. As a refresher, here are my 10 Bold Predictions from the preseason. We’ll pretend this is a double-header and I received 10 plate appearances, one for each prediction.
1. Paul Goldschmidt will go 30-20 while being the most valuable first baseman in 5×5
Close, but no cigar. No doubt Goldy posted an excellent season, but 36 home runs and 15 steals still isn’t quite 30-20. Given that Chris Davis out-performed Goldschmidt as the best first baseman, I can’t even call this half a point. We’re 0-1 thus far with a strikeout looking.
Read the rest of this entry »
I’m going to open with a caveat: I chose my 10 Bold Predictions towards the very end of prediction season (i.e. last in the group). The issue with that is that I was trying to make bold predictions and avoid duplicating the predictions of others.
Now, that’s not an excuse, because I actually thought all of these things would be true, believe it or not. Let’s reflect, gloat and laugh in self-deprecating embarrassment, shall we?
Jedd Gyorko is the real deal
Stat Line: 125 GP, 525 PA, 6.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, .249/.301/.444, 110 wRC+, 23 HR, 63 RBI
Gyorko was a bit of a mixed bag this season. His mid-season injury limited his counting stats and his batting average wasn’t much help, but his 23 homers ranked second among second basemen. All things considered, Gyorko ranked 16th among third basemen and 15th among second basemen, making him useful if not a set-and-forget type.
There’s also the matter of his split season: Gyorko was .284/.341/.461 with eight home runs in 60 games before his injury, .111/.147/.194 with two homers in his first 19 games back, and .258/.308/.522 with 13 homers in his final 46 games. If we’re willing to forgive his post-injury re-acclimation, the rookie had a heck of a season.
Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, I reviewed my bold hitter league leader picks from the preseason. Now it’s time to flip the coin and check how I did on the pitching side. For a refresher on my initial thought process for each choice, here is the original post.
This is my first venture into the Rotographs “Bold Predictions” series and mainly I’m just hoping a big league general manager notices my predictive prowess and I rule baseball by August 2015. I will admit, I am a bit concerned I asked my Magic 8-Ball how spot on these prophecies were and I just got an f-bomb back in return. Oh well. Go big or go home.
So Billy Beane, can I have Jonah Hill’s job yet?
Clay Buchholz will be a top-25 mixed league starter.
Thank you, ERA and WHIP. By games played, Buchholz was the one of the American League’s top starters this year, however, another season marred by injury caused him to only toss 108.1 innings this season. However, those inning were insanely valuable, with Buchholz posting 12 wins (in 16 starts), a 1.74 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP. With a nice spike in his K/9, even with the abbreviated season, Buchholz finished 20th on ESPN’s Player Rater. Win.
1 for 1.
It’s revisionist history time at Rotographs, where we go back and look at the buffoonery that was and is our bold predictions for the 2013 baseball season.
Here are mine:
1. Chris Parmelee leads the Twins in home runs.
Brian Dozier ended up leading this M*A*S*H* ward with 18, as Parmelee could never get going this season. Sadly, Parmelee finished ninth on the Twins with 8 round-trippers, right behind Pedro Florimon (9 HR, .273 wOBA).
Before the season started, I stated my Bold Predictions. Time to get the shaming on.
Torii Hunter will improve on his 2012 season.
After re-inventing his swing part way through 2012, I thought he could do it for an entire season. He didn’t.
81/16/92/9/.313
90/17/84/3/.304
Miss. 0 for 1
I’m sure this was common in a lot of the bold prediction pieces from the spring, but I caught some flack in the comments for not being bold enough. It turns out that only four of my ten predictions panned out, so either I’m woefully incompetent and can’t even make easy calls, or the predictions were bolder than they were given credit for. But I digress. Let’s talk about why I’m smart and why I’m (mostly) dumb.
Jonathan Lucroy, currently the 14th catcher being selected, will be a top ten catcher.
Of all my predictions, I’ll admit that this was one of the least bold. Lucroy was a top ten catcher on ESPN’s player rater in 2012 despite only getting 346 PA because of a stint on the DL with a broken hand. So it wasn’t a huge reach to think he’d be top ten again this year. But then again, he was going 14th on average, and he was one of only two catchers going outside the top ten that ended up finishing in the top ten. The other was Jarrod Saltalamacchia who was going 15-16 among catchers. So if I encouraged you to reach on Lucroy and take him in the 14th/15th round of a 12-team league, I’m happy with that.
In 2014, Lucroy is a borderline top five catcher. He hits a lot of line drives and has developed excellent plate discipline, so the batting average will be there. And he’s a safe bet for 15 homers, 75 RBI and and 55 runs as long as he stays healthy. But what pushes him near the top five is a little bit of speed. He stole nine bags this year and was the only top ten catcher to top four steals. Read the rest of this entry »
