Reviewing My 2013 Bold Pitcher League Leaders

Last week, I reviewed my bold hitter league leader picks from the preseason. Now it’s time to flip the coin and check how I did on the pitching side. For a refresher on my initial thought process for each choice, here is the original post.

American League

ERA – Yu Darvish

Darvish was a trendy pick to enjoy a major breakout this year and he certainly delivered. Unfortunately, a trio of starters, led by Anibal Sanchez, were a bit better in the ERA department. Darvish ended up ranking fourth with his 2.83 mark, but that was quite the improvement from last season’s ranking of 19. While there is reason to be concerned about the various injuries he battled this year, there’s no doubt that he should remain an elite pitcher while healthy. 0 for 1

WHIP – James Shields

Not quite. A career high walk rate coupled with a strikeout rate decline made it impossible for Shields to come anywhere close to Max Scherzer’s sub-1.00 WHIP. He ranked just 19th with a 1.24 mark, which was actually worse than last year’s 1.17 that ranked 9th. Shields also suffered declines in F-Strike%, SwStk% and GB%, and posted his highest SIERA since 2009. There are enough red flags here not reflected in his ERA that might make him a risky buy in drafts next year given his likely cost. 0 for 2

Strikeouts – Matt Moore

Yeah yeah, I could have given myself an easy win by going with Darvish, but that would have gone against the whole point of the post. It’s called bold for a reason! The thought process here was pretty obvious, as I expected Moore to pitch more innings and given his strong SwStk%, perhaps even boost his strikeout rate. None of those things happened though as he missed time due to elbow issues, limiting him to just 150.1 innings, and his strikeout rate fell. I am now much less optimistic about Moore’s future than I have been. 0 for 3

Wins – Doug Fister

Well, I got the team right! I argued that based on the various projected standings, the Tigers would score the most runs in baseball, making any of their starters a decent bet for the most wins. They actually ended up scoring the second most runs in baseball, but still yielded the wins champ in Scherzer. In fact, I even mentioned in my initial write-up that I considered Scherzer, but he was much less bold than I was looking for, so decided to go with Fister instead. It’s difficult to strike a good balance between being bold and eventually being right! 0 for 4

Saves – Glen Perkins

Despite posting a 2.30 ERA, Perkins saved just 36 games for the Twins, ranking 9th in the American League. Yeah, saves are pretty impossible to predict. Draft a closer with excellent skills and cross your fingers. 0 for 5

National League

ERA – Andrew Cashner

You knew he had to show up somewhere, right? Clayton Kershaw laughs at the notion of another pitcher winning the ERA crown. Cashner, though, ranked 10th with a 3.04 ERA, which was better than even I could have imagined. Unfortunately, the skills weren’t as good as I expected, so he may end up actually being a bit overvalued next year. But perhaps the strikeouts return and makes his owners happy either way. 0 for 6

WHIP – Dan Haren

LOL. Hey, at least he was better in WHIP than ERA, so this choice doesn’t look that embarrassing. Haren’s 1.24 WHIP ranked 26th in the NL as home runs killed him again, inflating his hits allowed total. I will still be advocating him as a sleeper next year though as his SIERA remained as solid as ever. 0 for 7

Strikeouts – Matt Harvey

From my initial write-up, a bit of prophecy?

His innings total will be key here…

He ranked third in the National League in strikeouts per nine innings, but of course he had no chance of taking the strikeout lead after his season ended early due to the elbow injury. Still, it would have been nearly impossible to overtake Kershaw anyhow as he would have had to pitch 220 innings with the same K/9 to beat him. I highly doubt he would have been allowed to throw that many innings even if he remained healthy. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery later this month and we’ll have to cross our fingers that he doesn’t miss a beat when he returns. 0 for 8

Wins – Mat Latos

My argument here was that the Reds figured to be one of the best offenses in the National League, which would boost Latos’ run support and a low 3.00 ERA would give him a chance at flirting with 20 wins. The Reds did indeed have a good offense, ranking third in the NL in runs scored, but his 14 wins tied for 9th, despite posting a 3.16 ERA. I hate wins and I hate projecting them. 0 for 9

Saves – Jason Grilli

Sooooo close! Grilli led the NL with 29 saves over the first three months of the season and finished with 33 after missing time with a forearm injury. If he hadn’t missed that time, there was definitely a chance he would have recorded more than the 50 that saves leader Craig Kimbrel did. Grilli’s injury replacement Mark Melancon saved 14 games in the former’s absence, blowing 4 saves in the process. Add all those numbers together and you get the potential for exactly 51 saves! Math! I’ll take 65% credit for this one. Just kidding. 0 for 10

None right. This is what I figured would happen for the hitters as well, but Paul Goldschmidt saved me. The closest I came was with Darvish, but at least I steered you handsome (and pretty, I know you female readers are out there!) readers in the right direction with a bunch of names that earned you a profit.