I never enjoy this. Every March, we make our Ten Bold Predictions and when predictions are bold, the process of analyzing the results tends to be rather humbling.
But not this year. Well, not really, anyway. I knew I had some stinkers in there (wait’ll you see #10), but I also knew I made some strong bets. And I thought maybe – just maybe – I could make a run at .500. We’ll have to see.
Another regular season of baseball has been completed and it has been a disappointing one for my fantasy teams. But that doesn’t mean that everything went wrong. So let’s take a look at what I boldly predicted in March and find out how well my crystal ball was working. For a refresher, these were my original 10 predictions with explanations. For the last two seasons, I have hit on three of my 10 predictions, so the hope is that at some point I’ll nail four of them. Perhaps this will be the year.
I’ve stolen from the movie before. I’ll do so again…
Guarantee? If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy teams’ sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about listening to quality content from me.
If you don’t know where this reference is from, then well…just ring your call button, and Tommy will come back there and hit you over the head with a tack hammer.
I actually will play guarantee fairy here, specifically for deep leagues since there are no uber-exciting names that jump out in my below grid. So here goes…
So long as they pitch to a qualifying level of innings without getting hurt or losing velocity (not ballsy enough to leave out these contingencies), I GUARANTEE these starters won’t be any worse next year (although in the grid below I highlighted in different strengths of green/red both starters and relievers):
• Steve Cishek had the night off and the Marlins went with Bryan Morris to start the ninth inning with a three run lead. After recording two outs and allowing two base runners, Mike Dunn came on for the one out save against the lefty Matt Adams. As we noted last night Cishek’s job is still safe but today’s outing gives us some insight into the pecking order behind him. I’m in agreement with the grid as Morris and A.J. Ramos set the table for Cishek. However, as a solid LOOGY, Dunn could steal a save opportunity or two when a tough lefty arises.
After a 13-hour work day, I took a walk through the North Bay suburb of Petaluma—southwest Petaluma to be exact. The sun had set but the sky was still mostly blue, surrounded with red paint above the mountains that surround our valley. I hadn’t had time to check Twitter that day, so when my brother, Ringo, texted me, “Got heeem!” I was hopeful he meant that the San Francisco Giants had acquired David Price.
“Price?” I replied.
“Not those Giants. No, we got your boy: Dan Uggla.”
“He’ll hit.”
“You’re insane.”
Yes, I’m late to the Bold Predictions party. What else is new? I’m going to be late for my own funeral, guaranteed.
Anyway, last year’s bold predictions didn’t fare entirely well, as discussed here, but the author feels that .400 is within the realm of possibility this time around.
10. Khris Davis will hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases.
Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I went beyond the obligatory 10 bold predictions and shared my bold hitter league leaders in each of the five standard fantasy categories. So today, I take on the pitchers. Although still difficult to hit on any, the pitchers are a bit easier to get right than the hitters for two reasons. One, there are two ratio categories, rather than one, so playing time expectations are less important. And two, there’s a larger luck component involved in pitching which makes the elite guys less of a lock to lead the league in any specific category.
In 2012, I hit on one of my 10 picks. Last year, I was demoted back to the minors after putting up an 0-fer. Let’s hope that lit a fire under my butt and results in a breakout predictions year.
The discussion below does not involve bizarre predictions. In fact, it doesn’t even include bold predictions. Essentially, the discussion is just the opposite of my bold predictions post last week. Or opposite in that I’ll be discussing players I dislike compared to the average as opposed to players I like. As for what ‘the average is,’ I’m using the expert consensus rank (ECR) from FantasyPros.com. If you’re still confused on the premise of this post, maybe the image below will help.
Why stop at just 10 general bold predictions? For the third year, I am publishing my bold league leaders. These are even more difficult to be right on than the bold predictions. In 2012, I nailed exactly 0 of my 10 picks. Last year, I regained my prospect status, actually hitting on one with my predicted National League home run leader, Paul Goldschmidt. Remember, these are bold league leaders, so when running through names, I instantly disqualified a player if I didn’t personally believe the player would be considered bold to lead the league in said category.
Let’s see what I’ll be rooting for on the offensive side of the ball this season.
This is my fourth year posting my bold predictions and it is always one of the most enjoyable posts to put together. In 2011, I published a whopping 20 bold predictions, but only hit on 4 of them. I say only, but in reality, my benchmark or target correctness was always 20% to begin with. In 2012, I increased my batting average to a more respectable .300, hitting on 3 of my 10 predictions. I was again right on with 3 of my 10 last year. After consolidating my skills, am I due for a breakout season with 5 correct predictions?
