I’m Awful at These: David Wiers’ 10 Bold Predictions Revisited

The word “bold” here reminds me of the interpretation for MVP. Where is the perfect bold line between too cautious and sheer lunacy? Clearly I tend to lean more towards lunacy as once again my predictions were way off. Sigh, oh well. In order to avoid any interpretation issues, I’ll be using Baseball Monster for comparison and ranking related predictions. My league settings will be Yahoo! with LF/CF/RF designations rather than the generic OF.

1. Drew Smyly will be more valuable than Doug Fister
Nope! Smyly is great against lefties, but right-handed hitters torch him. Even with his platoon struggles, Smyly posted a very useful 3.24 ERA in 153 innings pitched. Fister countered with an even better 2.41 ERA in 164 IP. Smyly did have more strikeouts, 133 to 98 and a better FIP/xFIP, but Fister’s 16 wins carried the day. 0-1

2. Anthony Rizzo puts up the best stats for a Chicago first baseman
Close, but no cigar. Rizzo put up a fine season where he hit .282/.386/.527 with 32 dingers but it still wasn’t enough to beat Jose Abreu’s breakout rookie campaign. Abreu’s .317/.383/.581 line plus 36 home runs and 107 RBIs won out over Rizzo’s 78 RBIs. Rizzo’s edge in runs, 89 to 80, wasn’t enough and I’m wrong yet again. 0-2

3. A bounce-back 15-15, .290 season for Starlin Castro
Castro hit .292, however he connected with 14 home runs (so close!) and stole a scant four bags while being caught as many times. Clearly a miss here, though maybe I could get a bonus point for Castro posting his highest wRC+ of any major league season? 0-3

4. Neftali Feliz will lead the Texas Rangers in saves
This one hurts a lot. Not because I have any particular love for Rangers relievers, but rather the wager I placed with previous FanGraphs writer Howard Bender:

welp

Wish me luck with that as Joakim Soria ended up leading the Rangers by four measly saves. 0-4

5. Danny Salazar will reach 200 strikeouts
Salazar’s pace was on point, as his 9.81 K/9 would have gotten me there. Too bad he only made 20 major league starts this year. If we include his minor league numbers — and we won’t because that would be cheating — it would move the needle close, to 196 total strikeouts. Still not there, even after massaging the numbers. 0-5

6. Sonny Gray will have the best 5×5 season for any Oakland Athletics starter
This is a tough one, so I’ll grade myself harshly and let the comment section decide. My prediction piece went up five days before Jarrod Parker went down with Tommy John surgery. The A’s already had Scott Kazmir signed and Gray wasn’t a sure fire bet. The reason why this is tricky is because for pitchers who started the year on the A’s, Gray was the best. Of course, Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija ended with better numbers. I’m calling this one a miss. 0-6

7. Domonic Brown will lead the Philadelphia Phillies in home runs by 10+
Not even close. After blasting 27 home runs in 2013 I thought Brown was finally making the leap. Oh how wrong I was. He ended up this year with 10 long balls, ranking sixth on his team. Brown’s HR/FB% dropped more than 50% from 19.7% in 2013 to 7.9% this season. 0-7

8. George Springer goes 20-20
Well, I was half right. Springer did hit 20 home runs, however he managed to nab only five bases this season. He only attempted seven steals total, so maybe the quadriceps injury is what threw him off. This was actually the first season of his professional career — other than his 2011 Low-A season — where Springer failed to reach 20 steals. I really felt this prediction was safe, but alas, it was not. 0-8

9. Kole Calhoun finishes the season as a top 30 mixed league outfielder
This one hurts. As per Baseball Monster, in 5×5 mixed leagues Calhoun ranks as the 36th best outfielder. Ugh. I had Calhoun pegged a sleeper back in March, so of course I expected big things. Calhoun rewarded my faith with a .272/.325/.450 line with 17 home runs but just five steals. His 90 runs scored was a welcome sight and if he can get his 7.1% walk rate up closer to his minor league BB%, Calhoun may break the century mark for runs next season. 0-9

10. Mark Trumbo’s counting numbers will surpass his weight
This one seemed like a lock, barring injury, for me to get. A lot of people loved Trumbo going to Arizona where the thin desert air should allow him to rocket fly balls over the fence. I like to have fun with everything I write, thus the occasional pop culture reference or attempt at a pun. I wanted a way to separate my pick of Trumbo against everyone else’s, thus the weight factor. Of course, Trumbo got hurt and appeared in just 88 games. Even in limited action he managed to gather 112 combined home runs, runs and RBIs, nearly putting him on pace for 240 in a full season. Trumbo’s listed weight here at FanGraphs is 235, so again, I feel like I was close to this, at least on a rate basis. 0-10

I judged myself strictly on these. There is an argument to made about number six. Number nine hurts because it was so close. But I have to hold myself to a high standard, so for the second straight year, I am 0-10. In case you were wondering, the proper reaction for you guys after I just went 0-20 is this. But hey, there is always next year!





You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.

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SKob
9 years ago

You totally get a point for Gray! How about if you just look at what they did starting for the A’s and not their first teams?

FeslenR
9 years ago
Reply to  David Wiers

David, I agree with SKob…I’d count it as a win also because Gray was in their rotation all year around.