Revisiting Karl de Vries’ Bold 2014 Predictions

Looking back on this column is like reviewing a high school yearbook photo from freshman year: the pimples can’t be Photoshopped away, the hair style screams what was he thinking?? and in hindsight, it’s no mystery that none of the girls wanted to date me. In a way, it’s fitting that this piece is being published on the same week of Yom Kippur; just as the holiest day on the Jewish calendar implores Jews worldwide to atone for their sins, so must I answer for some of these predictions.

As a heads up, the rankings discussed below refer to those computed by our Zach Sanders, which are set to publish next week. Otherwise, the scoring references use standard stats in CBS leagues.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Brandon Belt will outperform Albert Pujols among first basemen.
THE HARSH REALITY: Pujols outscores Belt by 372 points.
THE EXCUSE: The wrong guy gets hurt.

Heh, um, let’s just say I’m starting off 0-for-1. In my defense (a phrase that could serve as this article’s alternate title), I was betting on a 34-year-old Pujols to continue the decline that had set in for several years entering 2014 and be susceptible to injury. To say that that didn’t happen would be to state the obvious; Pujols notched nearly 700 plate appearances and fulfilled or exceeded Steamer and Oliver’s projections by bashing 28 homers, 105 RBIs and a .272 average, finishing fourth among first basemen. Belt, meanwhile, suffered through a nightmarish campaign marked by injury; after ripping seven home runs in the first month, he suffered a broken thumb in early May, and then a concussion in July when he was struck by a ball in the face during batting practice. Not a whole lot else to say but to chalk this up as a lost season for the Giants’ young slugger and a return to form for The Prince.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Kyle Seager finishes among top seven third basemen in RotoGraphs’ rankings.
THE HARSH REALITY: Seager hits the mark, finishing fifth.
THE EXCUSE: A pinch of luck in the power department helps Seager make his first all-star team.

Hey! How about that! A prediction that, while not crazy bold, at least has the merit of being pretty accurate, even if I assumed better seasons from David Wright and Evan Longoria. I was bullish on Seager entering the season, believing that the addition of Robinson Cano and the steady improvements made by Seager at the plate would yield results in his age-26 season. To an extent, I was right; a .352 BABIP in RBI situations helped him reach 96 RBIs, and an increase in his HR/FB rate (despite a slight decline in his batted ball distance) helps explain the tick upwards in home runs. Some luck may be involved here, but in a season rife with disappointments at third base, owners who had the Seattle hot-cornerman likely had no complaints, and he should be considered a solid option in 2015 as he enters his prime.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Sergio Santos will more than double Casey Janssen’s save output for the Blue Jays.
THE HARSH REALITY: Janssen’s 25 saves quintuples Santos’ output.
THE EXCUSE: Santos implodes while Janssen remains the Jays’ closer for two-thirds of the season.

Yikes. This Nostradamus moment was born out of a belief that a) Janssen’s back injury, which sidelined him on opening day, might linger, b) Santos’ closer experience could make him a viable option and c) Janssen’s impending free agency could make him expendable were the Blue Jays to fall out of the race. None of those three scenarios came to fruition. Santos converted his first four save opportunities, but then blew three of his next four, prompting the Jays to pull him from the ninth inning in early May, even before Janssen returned. Once Janssen came back, he was a pretty solid option through July, when a couple of blown saves prompted Toronto to split closing duties between him and Aaron Sanchez. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, finished over .500 for the year and were in the wild card hunt for much of the second half, removing the incentive to sell their free-agent-to-be closer to a contender. As for Santos, well, 2014 is a season he’d probably like to forget: he finished with a -0.5 WAR over 21 innings and was DFA’d twice by the Blue Jays, finishing the year in Double-A. Woof.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Wilson Ramos finishes among the top five catchers.
THE HARSH REALITY: Ramos finishes No. 21.
THE EXCUSE: Ramos gets hurt (surprise!).

Look, I wanted to believe. I wanted to buy low on a catcher who had 16 dingers in just 303 plate appearances last year, a history of pop and the capability of putting up decent power numbers with a mid-to-late-round pick. Well, maybe next year. Ramos broke a bone in his hand on opening day, costing him a month, and then lost two weeks due to a strained hamstring in June. When he was on the field, the results weren’t there, either: a soft .267 average and his worst ISO since 2010 were only briefly interrupted by a productive August. Drops in his HR/FB rate and FB% didn’t help, and he’ll likely be a stranger to the top 12 at the position come March.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Scott Kazmir posts a 4+ WAR season en route to becoming a top-40 starting pitcher.
THE HARSH REALITY: Kazmir has a 3.3 WAR season and finishes 32nd among SPs.
THE EXCUSE: The lefty has a good, just not amazing, 2014 campaign.

Assuming you didn’t draft Kazmir as a frontline SP, chances are good you were happy with his overall production this year. He made 32 starts, posted 15 wins, a decent amount of strikeouts and helped in the ERA and WHIP departments. But slight declines in his fastball velocity and SwStr% — the very indicators that made me so giddy heading into this year — helped nudge down his strikeout rate to a good-but-not-great 21.1%, and his 3.35 FIP wasn’t enough to carry his WAR past the 4 mark. In a sense, Kazmir fulfilled expectations, just not my grand dreams of fantasy ace-dom. In a two-part prediction, he only nets me partial credit.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Cole Hamels is this year’s Cliff Lee and raises his winning percentage by more than 200 points from the year before.
THE HARSH REALITY: Hamels goes 9-9, raising his winning percentage by just 136 points.
THE EXCUSE: The Phillies sucked too much.

If anything, I figured this one was too safe, because Hamels was coming off a 4.1 WAR season, and if he stayed healthy, he seemed like a lock to get more wins, regardless of how bad the Phillies were. But sure enough, the Phillies finished with the exact same 73-89 record as they did in 2013, and provided the lowest run support per game of Hamels’ career. Don’t blame the lefty, however: Hamels returned from a shoulder injury in late April and ended up posting more than 200 innings, producing excellent results across the board and finishing with a 3.8 WAR. Once again, he’ll be a solid bet on draft day to outperform his ADP and net owners a good return on investment.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Ike Davis will hit at least 25 home runs and drive in 80.
THE HARSH REALITY: The Mets banish Davis to Pittsburgh, where he finishes with only 11 home runs and 51 RBIs.
THE EXCUSE: Davis’ power-hitting potential remains dormant.

Thankfully, the Mets’ judgment is better than mine, as Lucas Duda, not Davis, satisfied these goals. In Davis’ case, he cut down significantly on his strikeout rate while becoming more patient at the plate, allowing him to put up a .344 OBP, but a decline in his batted ball distance plunged his HR/FB rate to the lowest of his career, he hit too many pop ups and his 37.4 FB% needs to climb for him to hit more dingers. I’m always going to want to see Davis succeed, as he’s had flashes of long-ball glory in the past and seems like a good guy, but I’m declaring a moratorium on expectations until we see otherwise.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Andrew Heaney emerges as the Marlins’ second-most valuable fantasy starter.
THE HARSH REALITY: Heaney is the team’s seventh-most valuable SP.
THE EXCUSE: Heaney proves too raw for the big leagues in his first go-around.

Is this article over yet? Heaney was arguably the most promising rookie starter in fantasy this year, given his upside and the likelihood that the Marlins, having nothing to play for, would provide a rotation spot for him. But he proved to be quite raw in four starts after being called up in mid-June, and the Marlins decided to demote him back to Triple-A and ride the likes of Brad Hand and Jarred Cosart in the rotation after Jose Fernandez went down. The Marlins, meanwhile, ended up making a surprise run for a NL wild card spot, and Heaney never got a chance to turn things around at the major league level.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Leonys Martin will outperform Starling Marte despite coming much cheaper on draft day.
THE HARSH REALITY: Marte finishes as the 21st most valuable outfielder, easily trumping Martin, who finishes 39th.
THE EXCUSE: A torrid finish and some serious wheels prove Marte’s 2013 season was no fluke.

This prediction was looking not-awful until August, when Marte hit the afterburner and batted .356 in the season’s final two months, becoming a major reason why the Bucs snagged a wild card spot. As my prediction at the time had less to do with love for Martin than pessimism about Marte, I need to give credit where credit is due: Marte’s increased line drive rate and ability to beat out infield hits resulted in a BABIP (.373) that was higher than the .363 mark he had last year, and despite a dip in steals, he still swiped 30 bags. He increased his batted ball distance by nearly 10 feet, to the point where he ranked 16th among qualified hitters this year, walked more and added 21 more RBIs to become a more complete player. Martin, meanwhile, had his use in fantasy, evidenced by 31 steals and a .274 average, but there’s no question that Marte, despite the higher price tag, helped owners cash in.

THE BOLD PREDICTION: Wily Peralta finishes among the top 70 starting pitchers.
THE HARSH REALITY: Peralta finishes 49th.
THE EXCUSE: Peralta’s improved control helps him notch 17 wins and a 3.53 ERA.

Now that’s more like it! Peralta is nowhere near a fantasy ace, but I thought he was being punished too severely in mock drafts last winter after posting an 11-15 record in 2013. Although owners would like to see more strikeouts for a guy whose fastball averages 95 mph, Peralta cut his walk rate by nearly two percentage points and watched his strand rate climb back to 76.1%, which rescued his ERA despite a high HR/FB rate. He maintained his ability to generate ground balls at a high clip while decreasing line drives, resulting in a solid 3.73 SIERA. In short, Peralta took a major leap forward as a major league starter in 2014.

Counting half credit for the Kazmir prediction, that’s a .250 average for me this season. Nothing to write home about, perhaps, but I’ll take it and look to improve my batting average in a few months.





Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries.

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