Reviewing Mike Podhorzer’s 2014 Bold Pitcher League Leaders

Yesterday, I reviewed my 2014 bold hitting league leaders, so today it’s time to take a gander at the pitching side of those predictions. Since debuting the pitcher league leaders back in 2012, I did get one correct that year, but followed up that performance with an 0-fer. Let’s find out if I could add another tick in the win box this time around.

American League

ERA – Corey Kluber

While Kluber was likely a real unknown heading into this season by the vast majority of baseball fans and fantasy players, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs readers knew his name quite well. His 2013 SIERA of 3.25 suggested better results ahead, but Klubes wasn’t satisfied with an ERA above 3.00 again. Instead, he upped his strikeout rate to an elite level, thanks to a fantastic array of pitches that induced well above average rates of swinging strikes. He didn’t quite lead the league in ERA, but his third place showing was most certainly better than anyone expected. So this won’t count as a win, but as you readers have pointed out in the comments, it is certainly a win in the spirit of what this post was about. 0 for 1

WHIP – R.A. Dickey

Dickey barely improved his 2013 WHIP and a mark above 1.20 has no chance of coming even close to leading the league. The thought here was that his strikeout rate would increase after his first year back in the American League, which it did not, and his BABIP-suppressing knuckleball would continue to keep the hits in check. That did happen, but his walk rate jumped, which helped guarantee a loss. 0 for 2

Strikeouts – Scott Kazmir

It was difficult to identify a name that would have been considered bold here, but innings figured to be the issue with Kazmir. Turns out, he ended up throwing 190.1 of them, but his strikeout rate tumbled. So, he actually punched out just two more batters over 32.1 additional innings compared to 2013. Given how he limped to the finish line this year, I’m not sure he’ll cost any more than he did heading into the season. Whether that will be a good value or not is up in the air as it depends entirely on his health, something I’m no longer sure about after his late season loss of velocity. 0 for 3

Wins – Sonny Gray

Projecting wins is a complete crapshoot and projecting the leader in the category even more so, but it’s typically good practice to simply go with a guy you’re projecting for a pretty good ERA, lots of innings and who plays on a good team. I certainly didn’t expect Gray to throw 219 innings or post an ERA as low as 3.08. But he did, and yet he still won just 14 games. His strikeout rate fell and his BABIP is going to rise, but he possesses an excellent skill set and has upside to improve upon those peripherals. 0 for 4

Saves – Nate Jones

Soooooo, I managed to choose the guy who collected zero saves and pitch zero innings, after he allowed two runs without recording an out in two straight outings to open the season. Of course, he then immediately hurt his back and then suddenly went under the knife to go Tommy John surgery in late July. Projecting a bold saves leader is tough folks. 0 for 5

National League

ERA – Alex Wood

I opened my Wood blurb with this:

Like with AL strikeouts, any pick not named Clayton Kershaw is highly unlikely. 

So yeah, Kershaw did what he does, leading the world in ERA. But Wood was quite good himself. He finished 10th in the NL in ERA with a superb 2.78 mark, split between the rotation and bullpen. He cut his walk rate while simultaneously upping his strikeout rate. So technically wrong, but another in spirit win. 0 for 6

WHIP – Doug Fister

I went with a guy who posted a 1.31 WHIP the previous year and was pretty darn close. Of course, there was that pesky Kershaw again thinking it’s okay to just win at everything. But Fister loved the vastly improved defense behind him as his BABIP plunged from .332 to .262 and he walked precious few opposing batters. It all added up to a 1.08 WHIP, good for fifth in the league. Of course, his SIERA was a run and a half higher than his actual ERA, but with a low strikeout rate, he probably won’t be overvalued next year. Another in spirit win! 0 for 7

Strikeouts – Jose Fernandez

This pick was looking mighty fine until he unfortunately fell victim to the TJ curse. That’s two of my 10 picks here that had to undergo the procedure! Hopefully he makes a full recovery and his stuff and command haven’t deteriorated. 0 for 8

Wins – Matt Garza

Garza only pitched 163.1 innings over 27 starts this year due to various injuries, so this was pretty impossible to win. He also tallied just eight victories when he took the mound, despite posting a respectable 3.64 ERA. His strikeout rate has now dropped for three straight seasons and he hasn’t thrown more than the 163.1 innings he did this year since 2011. He should be valued similarly to how he was heading into 2014. 0 for 9

Saves – Steve Cishek

Cishek’s 39 save total was good for a tie for fifth in the NL. His strikeout rate surged as he threw his slider even more frequently, opting to use it nearly every other pitch. That can’t be good for his future health, but perhaps he has another year as a crazy slider slinger. 0 for 10