My colleague Zach Sander kicked off bold prediction season today, which tells me it’s time to get on my high horse. Last year, I drew some fire for a lack of boldness (I disagreed then and in retrospect). Nevertheless, I will attempt to be bolder AND more accurate this season.
As these white hot predictions have rolled across FanGraphs’ hallowed pages over the last few years, I have abstained, but I shall hold my silence no longer. I present to you my 2015 Bold Predictions, which hopefully have enough bold flavors for your pleasure.
1a. Clayton Kershaw will be the No. 1 fantasy player…
This prediction should come as no surprise after I ranked Kershaw first overall in the RotoGraphs Top 300. I don’t find this prediction to be bold, since Kershaw ranked second last year despite missing the first month of the season, but the reaction from the commentariat suggests that this prediction belongs here. Read the rest of this entry »
It was a wonderful, magical age 27 season for Michael Brantley last year. He wound up as the 4th most valuable asset according to Zach Sanders’ 2014 End of Season Rankings with a 24HR-94R-97RBI-23SB-.327 line based on a career-best isolated slugging rate 55+ points beyond his career rate. From 2011 to 2013, his ISO rates were .118, .114 and .112. A .178 last year was almost 40 points higher than the average outfielder ISO rate.
For all hitters between 25 and 29 (the magical 27 +/-2), Michael Brantley had the 2nd best contact rate (91.3%) after Ben Revere. His contact rate was two standard deviations from the mean. His ISO was .78 standard deviations from the mean. His combined contact+ISO z-score was 2.78, which ranks 2nd overall in this age group, which was sandwiched between Troy Tulowitzki and Buster Posey:
Here’s my ballsiest, way-too-early, 2015 Fantasy Baseball Prediction: Trevor Cahill becomes a fantasy asset again at age 27: the magical-mystery-kind.
For only the second time of his career last year, his FIP was sub-4.00, but his left-on-base rate was only 62.6% and his BABIP was 65 points higher than his career rate (.350 vs. .285). He was the trifecta (unlucky HR/FB rate as well) away from a 6.00+ ERA season.
The outcomes were bad. However, the outcomes on the pitch level were still impressive at times:
I’m not a terribly smart person. Read the rest of this entry »
We at RotoGraphs are using the end of the season as an excuse to revisit some stuff we wrote in March. You may have noticed this already. When I originally made my predictions, I took some flak for being “not bold.” I maintained that the critiques lacked an understanding of probability. Looking back on my performance this year, I think my choices were plenty bold – or maybe crazy is the right word. Anyway…
Another season, another look back at my ineptitude at going BOLD.
1. Miguel Cabrera will not be one of the top two fantasy players.
Miguel Cabrera was the consensus #2 player ranked coming into the season. I saw his health being a concern and someone would leap over him. Not just one player did better, it was 12 plus Trout. Even his teammate Victor Martinez did better.
1 for 1 (considering stopping now)
2. Billy Hamilton will have more stolen bases than base hits.
56 SB vs 141 hits.
I did not think he could hit good enough to be an everyday player. In the first half, he proved me wrong by hitting: .285/.319/.423. In the second half, it was only .200/.254/.257. Even more interesting to me was his .304 BABIP on the season. With his speed, he should be able to bunt and get on more than 30% of the time.
1 for 2
3. Dean Anna will produce more than Derek Jeter and Brian Roberts. Read the rest of this entry »
The end of the 2014 fantasy baseball season is here. Now it’s time to look back at the bold-ish predictions I made in March to see how I did:
10. Khris Davis will hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases.
In his first full season in the league, Davis triple slashed .244/.299/.457 with 22 homers and four stolen bases. While the power projection was within striking distance, the speed projection was way off. Looking back, I put too much value into Davis’ ability to swipe bases during his time Single-A and Advanced-A. Despite missing out in the prediction, I do like the player and will likely have a bunch of shares in 2015.
0-for-1
Read the rest of this entry »
The word “bold” here reminds me of the interpretation for MVP. Where is the perfect bold line between too cautious and sheer lunacy? Clearly I tend to lean more towards lunacy as once again my predictions were way off. Sigh, oh well. In order to avoid any interpretation issues, I’ll be using Baseball Monster for comparison and ranking related predictions. My league settings will be Yahoo! with LF/CF/RF designations rather than the generic OF.
1. Drew Smyly will be more valuable than Doug Fister
Nope! Smyly is great against lefties, but right-handed hitters torch him. Even with his platoon struggles, Smyly posted a very useful 3.24 ERA in 153 innings pitched. Fister countered with an even better 2.41 ERA in 164 IP. Smyly did have more strikeouts, 133 to 98 and a better FIP/xFIP, but Fister’s 16 wins carried the day. 0-1
Read the rest of this entry »
Allow me to begin my 10 Bold Predictions Revisited with a bold statement. RotoGraphs bossman Eno Sarris must love embarrassing his employees*. The concept of the 10 Bold Predictions articles are great, as they allow us to talk about players we are more passionate about heading into the year, and give us an opportunity to go deeper than the standard league articles might allow.
The downside, of course, is that we have to revisit these predictions after the season. Making bold predictions is one thing, looking back on how terrible you are is another. And so, with another year behind us, let’s look at how misguided my thoughts were coming into the year.