Another year, another set of bold predictions to nail down. If you’d like to check out some of my past predictions, here are 2013’s along with the review and here are 2014’s predictions and the subsequent review.
As usual, firing squad please report directly to the comments section.
Here goes nothing:
1. Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Hahn will be top 75 starters
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Writing on Friday is tough for Bold Predictions as my RotoGraphs colleagues gradually picked off many of my predictions one by one through the week. Don’t feel too bad for me, I still found plenty that will probably come back to haunt me in a few months (or sooner!).
1. Jorge Soler will hit at least 33 home runs
Going with 30 home runs didn’t feel quite bold enough since Steamer pegs Soler for 24 and the Fans call for 26. So… 33 home runs! I think he compares especially well to Justin Upton, whose 70-pick premium over Soler in NFBC ADP feels quite steep. Check out his ISO numbers last season for a hint at his power upside: .446 in Double-A, .336 in Triple-A and .281 in the majors.
Are you Bold Prediction’d out yet? Of course you’re not! As the proud founder of the Bold Prediction series, it is my pleasure to now present to you 10 events that will occur this upcoming season. My crystal ball reading skills regressed last year, as I declined from hitting .300 to just .200, but a full off-season working with Miss Cleo should get me back on track.
It’s time for bold predictions again. Check out the Bold Predictions tab to see the rest of the staff go loony. I was told I wasn’t specific enough or bold enough last year (when I went four for ten, a Williams-esque personal best), so this year’s bold predictions are all specific predictions about specific players!
Enjoy!
1) Anthony DeSclafani will have a season that trumps his minor league strikeout numbers.
He’s secured a rotation spot, and that was step one. With Jason Marquis in the rotation, it’s also safe to say he’s not the number five guy that gets bounced when Homer Bailey is back. The team traded for him, and need him as a starter, so they believe he’s more than a one-pitch pitcher with command, a moniker that’s been hung on him by smarter men then me. But what I see is enough gas (92.5, or a mph more than your average righty), command (2.0 walks per nine in the minors), and arsenal to be a really good pitcher.
The Rotographs bold predictions are flying off the shelves! And I’m the only one arrogant enough to believe he needs two separate pieces for his. Yesterday I brought you my hitting picks and today come the pitchers. Unfortunately I’ve already lost one that I was really excited about, but I still have five for you:
According to my mother, I’m the most stubborn person on the planet. I’ll live up to that reputation today by sticking with a theme I’ve used for my bold predictions post the last two seasons. I’ll go position-by-position through the hitters and address a player who is outside starter territory in 12-team mixed leagues that I think might be able to give you starter-level production.
Two years ago that theme didn’t sit well with commenters as looking at players with an ADP outside of starter territory apparently didn’t live up the the bold moniker. To avoid that criticism I’ll only be discussing hitters that have not been ranked as a starter at their position by any of the 43 experts contributing to FantasyPros.com’s Expert Consensus Rankings.
For starting pitchers I’ll just be naming several players that I have ranked higher than everyone else or higher than almost everyone else.
As if finding ten things to predict boldly weren’t challenging enough, I added one more layer this year. All my Bold Predictions will be about players whose first name starts with B or last name starts with P. In fact, we are going one step further – all the B names are Brandon.
Why, you ask? Why not, I answer.
RotoGraphs has graciously (and, as we’ll soon learn, erroneously) allowed me to make bold predictions for the 2015 season. Last year, in the privacy of my own blog, I predicted Dan Haren would strike out fewer than seven batters-per-nine after notching an 8.0 K/9 in 2013. He finished the 2014 season with a 7.02 K/9. Needless to say, I’m looking for vengeance. So let’s do this! Right now!!!!
1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.
FanGraphs’ auction calculator, in its default settings, depicts Stanton as the third most expensive player behind Mike Trout and Joe Blanton Clayton Kershaw. He ranks second in average auction value in ESPN drafts. He’ll find his way to the disabled list again, and the BABIP gods will punish him en route, leaving him outside not only the top 10 overall but also the top 10 outfielders outright.
My 2013 predictions failed me, as did my 2014, yet I’m still feeling good about this year! I don’t think we need to retread old ground too much, but for the uninitiated, I currently sit at 0-20 lifetime. Without further delay, lets get this over with here are my 10 bold predictions!
1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
I’m shoving all in on Donaldson in Toronto. Presumably he’ll form a triumvirate of power and on-base skills with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and will most likely hit in front of those two. Scoring 120 runs is a feat that has happened just four times since 2010 and represents a 27 run increase for Donaldson from this year. I thought about predicting Donaldson as a top-5 player, however he is already top-20 or 25. Not enough of a jump for me to call bold, so 120 runs it is! Quick edit, as Donaldson may hit fifth rather than second. If that is the case, expect him to score fewer runs, but boost his RBI total to the 130 plateau, something only three players have done since 2010.
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It’s Bold Prediction Season here at Rotographs with Zach Sanders and Brad Johnson kicking it off this morning and many more on the way. Now it’s my turn at-bat. I’m obviously looking to strike a balance between realistic and bold. Calling for Stephen Strasburg to win the NL Cy Young isn’t really that bold even though he’s never come close and only has the one season north of 183 innings. He has been an elite-level arm pretty much since joining the league so it isn’t all that bold to essentially say “it all comes together this year”.
Meanwhile, putting Freddie Freeman down for 45 HRs fulfills the bold end of the ledger, but isn’t terribly realistic. First off, is he going to get 45 pitches to hit in that lineup? But more importantly, he hasn’t shown the skill or batted ball profile for that kind of power surge (essentially double his career-high of 23 set in 2012 and matched in 2013) so what’s really the point if it’s just bold for bold sake?
