RotoGraphs has graciously (and, as we’ll soon learn, erroneously) allowed me to make bold predictions for the 2015 season. Last year, in the privacy of my own blog, I predicted Dan Haren would strike out fewer than seven batters-per-nine after notching an 8.0 K/9 in 2013. He finished the 2014 season with a 7.02 K/9. Needless to say, I’m looking for vengeance. So let’s do this! Right now!!!!

1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.

FanGraphs’ auction calculator, in its default settings, depicts Stanton as the third most expensive player behind Mike Trout and Joe Blanton Clayton Kershaw. He ranks second in average auction value in ESPN drafts. He’ll find his way to the disabled list again, and the BABIP gods will punish him en route, leaving him outside not only the top 10 overall but also the top 10 outfielders outright.

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My 2013 predictions failed me, as did my 2014, yet I’m still feeling good about this year! I don’t think we need to retread old ground too much, but for the uninitiated, I currently sit at 0-20 lifetime. Without further delay, lets get this over with here are my 10 bold predictions!

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
I’m shoving all in on Donaldson in Toronto. Presumably he’ll form a triumvirate of power and on-base skills with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and will most likely hit in front of those two. Scoring 120 runs is a feat that has happened just four times since 2010 and represents a 27 run increase for Donaldson from this year. I thought about predicting Donaldson as a top-5 player, however he is already top-20 or 25. Not enough of a jump for me to call bold, so 120 runs it is! Quick edit, as Donaldson may hit fifth rather than second. If that is the case, expect him to score fewer runs, but boost his RBI total to the 130 plateau, something only three players have done since 2010.
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It’s Bold Prediction Season here at Rotographs with Zach Sanders and Brad Johnson kicking it off this morning and many more on the way. Now it’s my turn at-bat. I’m obviously looking to strike a balance between realistic and bold. Calling for Stephen Strasburg to win the NL Cy Young isn’t really that bold even though he’s never come close and only has the one season north of 183 innings. He has been an elite-level arm pretty much since joining the league so it isn’t all that bold to essentially say “it all comes together this year”.

Meanwhile, putting Freddie Freeman down for 45 HRs fulfills the bold end of the ledger, but isn’t terribly realistic. First off, is he going to get 45 pitches to hit in that lineup? But more importantly, he hasn’t shown the skill or batted ball profile for that kind of power surge (essentially double his career-high of 23 set in 2012 and matched in 2013) so what’s really the point if it’s just bold for bold sake?

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As I write this, Mike Trout is sporting a .556 batting average in Spring Training. I also had the pleasure of drafting him first overall in my NFBC Draft Champions league. To celebrate his feat and my luck, I am shooting for at least five of nine of the following bold predictions.

Here goes (extra ballsy right from the start):

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My colleague Zach Sander kicked off bold prediction season today, which tells me it’s time to get on my high horse. Last year, I drew some fire for a lack of boldness (I disagreed then and in retrospect). Nevertheless, I will attempt to be bolder AND more accurate this season.

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As these white hot predictions have rolled across FanGraphs’ hallowed pages over the last few years, I have abstained, but I shall hold my silence no longer. I present to you my 2015 Bold Predictions, which hopefully have enough bold flavors for your pleasure.

1a. Clayton Kershaw will be the No. 1 fantasy player…
This prediction should come as no surprise after I ranked Kershaw first overall in the RotoGraphs Top 300. I don’t find this prediction to be bold, since Kershaw ranked second last year despite missing the first month of the season, but the reaction from the commentariat suggests that this prediction belongs here. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a wonderful, magical age 27 season for Michael Brantley last year. He wound up as the 4th most valuable asset according to Zach Sanders’ 2014 End of Season Rankings with a 24HR-94R-97RBI-23SB-.327 line based on a career-best isolated slugging rate 55+ points beyond his career rate. From 2011 to 2013, his ISO rates were .118, .114 and .112. A .178 last year was almost 40 points higher than the average outfielder ISO rate.

For all hitters between 25 and 29 (the magical 27 +/-2),  Michael Brantley had the 2nd best contact rate (91.3%) after Ben Revere. His contact rate was two standard deviations from the mean. His ISO was .78 standard deviations from the mean. His combined contact+ISO z-score was 2.78, which ranks 2nd overall in this age group, which was sandwiched between Troy Tulowitzki and Buster Posey:

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Here’s my ballsiest, way-too-early, 2015 Fantasy Baseball Prediction: Trevor Cahill becomes a fantasy asset again at age 27: the magical-mystery-kind.

For only the second time of his career last year, his FIP was sub-4.00, but his left-on-base rate was only 62.6% and his BABIP was 65 points higher than his career rate (.350 vs. .285). He was the trifecta (unlucky HR/FB rate as well) away from a 6.00+ ERA season.

The outcomes were bad. However, the outcomes on the pitch level were still impressive at times:

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I’m not a terribly smart person. Read the rest of this entry »

We at RotoGraphs are using the end of the season as an excuse to revisit some stuff we wrote in March. You may have noticed this already. When I originally made my predictions, I took some flak for being “not bold.” I maintained that the critiques lacked an understanding of probability. Looking back on my performance this year, I think my choices were plenty bold – or maybe crazy is the right word. Anyway…

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