Reviewing My Mediocre Predictions

We at RotoGraphs are using the end of the season as an excuse to revisit some stuff we wrote in March. You may have noticed this already. When I originally made my predictions, I took some flak for being “not bold.” I maintained that the critiques lacked an understanding of probability. Looking back on my performance this year, I think my choices were plenty bold – or maybe crazy is the right word. Anyway…

1. Erik Johnson will be the second best starting pitcher for the White Sox

Um. This looks silly in retrospect. It’s almost like I forgot Jose Quintana existed. My thought process was pretty simple, Quintana would regress to about a 4.00 ERA while Johnson could use his 92 mph fastball, decent repertoire, and track record of strong command and control to post better numbers. I never thought Johnson would be a star, but I did think he’d be a mostly reliable guy with a mid-3’s ERA. Instead, his fastball dropped to 89 mph, his command vanished (5.70 BB/9), and he eventually landed on the minor league disabled list with shoulder discomfort.
0-for-1

2. Carlos Ruiz will be a top 15 fantasy catcher

Ruiz had a solid real life season – he just wasn’t useful for his fantasy owners. Zach Sander’s unofficial numbers rank him as the 28th catcher at -$3 (yes, that’s a negative). He gave me the number of plate appearances I expected, I just anticipated better quality from those at bats. He ended the year with 43/6/31/4/.252. I was expecting closer to 50/10/60/4/.275. If only I had picked Dioner Navarro for that projection. 0-for-2

3. Jimmy Rollins will post 40 or more home runs plus steals (HR+SB)

Rollins was coming off his worst offensive season since he was breaking into the league. Fantasy experts were uniformly down on the former roto star, so I gladly snatched him up for nothing in most of my leagues. This turned out to be a great investment. He was the fifth best shortstop per Sanders, barely underperforming Troy Tulowitzki’s partial season. Owners who snagged Rollins for $1 earned a $15 profit to go with 45 HR+SB. 1-for-3

4. Brian McCann will exceed 600 plate appearances, slug 30 or more home runs, and drive in at least 100 runs

His was one of the most disappointing fantasy seasons. Perhaps we should have anticipated the low batting average in the division that has seemingly mastered the shift. The funny thing is, he wasn’t too far off my “bold” prediction. He managed 538 plate appearances, 23 home runs, and 75 RBI. I bet if you re-run this season 1,000 times, McCann hits my prediction most of the time. Still, 1-for-4

5. Justin Ruggiano will accrue over 40 HR+SB

Like with Johnson, this one went sideways from the start. My prediction was dependent on Ruggiano starting the season hot and earning a permanent role in the Cubs outfield. The opportunity was there, but Ruggiano just couldn’t get healthy enough to take it. He finished the season with only eight HR+SB in 250 plate appearances. If he wants fantasy relevance next season, he’ll have to sign elsewhere. I recommend Philadelphia. 1-for-5

6. Sergio Santos will record 15 saves

Most of my predictions have two components – opportunity and performance. With Santos, I thought great performance was in the bag. It was just a matter of the door opening wide enough for a chance. The door definitely opened, but Santos wasn’t there to walk through it. When he wasn’t busy dealing with an ailment, Santos was exhibiting none of the command and control that made him look like a stud in his 2013 return to action. C’est la vie. 1-for-6

7. Justin Verlander will be the best pitcher on the Tigers

This list is getting embarrassing. You could argue that Verlander was a solid mid-rotation arm despite his disappointing season. However, he wasn’t remotely close to the ace I thought he’d be. I didn’t really practice what I preached, since I rostered Verlander in exactly zero leagues. Last season, he recovered his stuff late in the year and finished strong. I thought he’d pick up where he left off. I was wrong. 1-for-7

8. None of 2013′s breakout rookie starters post a sub-3.00 ERA

This was my most interesting prediction. Few pitchers can be considered likely to post a sub-3.00 ERA – only 22 accomplished the feat this season. This was a numbers game, I basically bet that all of Jose Fernandez, Michael Wacha, Danny Salazar, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Tony Cingrani, Chris Archer, Wily Peralta, Zach Wheeler, Alex Wood, and Julio Teheran would fail to be outstanding. Throw enough good pitchers into a bin and you’ll catch a couple that either improve or get lucky. I only got nine of 11 right, with both Teheran and Wood barely beating my threshold. I also completely failed to mention Tanner Roark.
1-for-8

9. Yordano Ventura breaks camp with the team and quickly establishes himself as the second best Royals starter

Oh good, I get to take credit for two successful predictions. Looking past Tuesday’s matzo ball, Ventura had a fantastic rookie campaign, with a 3.20 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 7.82 K/9, and 3.39 BB/9. His overpowering 97 mph fastball makes him both attractive and risky in future seasons. Most pitchers naturally bleed velocity as they age, and not all can get by without elite heat. On the other hand, his swinging strike rate was close to 11 percent, which should support a better strikeout rate in the future.

If we do this the lazy way, Ventura had 2.8 WAR, second to James Shields‘ 3.7 WAR. If we use RA-9 for value, he’s tied with Shields for the best total at 3.9. Any way you slice it, Ventura came exactly as advertised. 2-for-9

10. Thomas La Stella ousts Dan Uggla by May 20th

Oh come on! Part of the reason Frank Wren lost his job is Uggla. The decision to play La Stella over Uggla could have been made during spring training. If the club was really worried about service time, then late-April should have been a sufficient call up date. Even if La Stella didn’t hit a lick, he was almost guaranteed to outplay Uggla. Instead, this mess lasted until May 28, missing my bold prediction by a week and a day. 2-for-10

Bonus: I also penned 10 additional fantasy relevant predictions. I posted an identical 2-for-10 success rate. I guess you should turn to Eno if you want trustworthy bold predictions.