Zach Sanders’ Bold Predictions for 2015
As these white hot predictions have rolled across FanGraphs’ hallowed pages over the last few years, I have abstained, but I shall hold my silence no longer. I present to you my 2015 Bold Predictions, which hopefully have enough bold flavors for your pleasure.
1a. Clayton Kershaw will be the No. 1 fantasy player…
This prediction should come as no surprise after I ranked Kershaw first overall in the RotoGraphs Top 300. I don’t find this prediction to be bold, since Kershaw ranked second last year despite missing the first month of the season, but the reaction from the commentariat suggests that this prediction belongs here.
1b. …but Max Scherzer will lead the NL in Ks
Sure, Kershaw will be the top dog, but Scherzer will still be the NL strikeout king.
2. Matt Shoemaker will be a top-24 SP
I love me some Shoemaker. Not only were his numbers great last year, but he was also fun to watch. I’m not saying to pay for Shoemaker like a top-24 starter, but those are my expectations.
3. Jay Bruce will be a top-24 OF
Bruce really struggled last year, but I believe in a bounceback season. The remainder of the RotoGraphs rankers averaged out to have Bruce 33rd, which raises to 37th if you take out Paul Sporer’s appropriately bullish ranking.
4. There will be four members of the 20/20 club
In 2012, there were 10 members of the 20/20 club. In 2013, there were seven. Last year, there were five members: Todd Frazier, Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez, Brian Dozier, and Michael Brantley. I have that number dropping to four in 2015.
5. Kennys Vargas will hit at least .260 with 20 HR
Vargas hit .274 and hit nine homers in 53 games last year, but he sported a .340 BABIP and struck out nearly 27% of the time. Steamer and ZiPS have him hitting .252 and .240, respectively, with only Steamer thinking he makes it to 20 homers. I have no real doubts that Vargas will get 20 dong-dongs, but the average is where this prediction will likely fall.
6. Three Padres will record at least five saves (for the second straight year)
Last season, the Angels and Blue Jays joined the Padres with in the “three with five” club, while the White Sox had four players with five or more saves. Joaquin Benoit looks to be the closer to beat, but Brandon Maurer and Shawn Kelley were brought in this offseason for a reason. Whether Benoit gets hurt, traded, or just loses the job, I think saves will be up in the air for the Padres.
7. Rubby de la Rosa will have a WHIP of at least 1.50 as a starter
I don’t believe in Rubby as a starter. His career WHIP is 1.46, and combination of Steamer and ZiPS peg him at 1.37 — as both a starter and a reliever.
8. Phil Hughes will be the only Twins starter with an ERA under 4.00, but no starter will have an ERA over 5.00
Let’s assume, for the sake of this, that “Twins starter” means starting at least seven games and only using stats from their starts.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Never trust a person who has an occupation as their last name, and yet, has an occupation that is dissimilar.
Always trust a person who has an occupation as their last name, and yet, has an occupation that is dissimilar.
Not to give all 4 away, since you would have done if you wanted, but do you see George Springer going 20/20
I’m betting he has Springer as a 30/15 guy, so no.
27/15
The editors put the word Bold in the title… oops. 🙂
You people and your Jay Bruce boner.
What do you mean “you people”?
What do YOU mean “you people”?!
What do I mean “you people”?!
is this actually a term for “home run”
Indeed.
Follow @dongreport on twitter for all your dong following needs.
It’s a porn reference.
my guess for his Four for Bold predictioon #4 are McCutcheon, Trout, Gomez and Springer
…Souza! Maybe not, but I sure can hope.
Gomez, Cutch, Trout, and….Ian Desmond; but those four being the ones is not what I’ll count success on for the prediction.
Never base your decision to trust a person on whether or not he/she has an occupation as their last name, and yet, has an occupation that is dissimilar.
Spa City’s bold prediction for 20/20 players: Trout, McCutchen, Springer, Steven Souza, Josh Harrison, Javier Baez, and Hanley Ramirez.
You seriously think Harrison is getting 20HR’s? He does not belong in that group
Thee are supposed to be Bold predictions. Without Harrison my prediction would be much less bold.
I don’t see Hanley stealing twenty bags, either… and no, I’m not a robot.
Um, FYI… we build most of the things you use. We can see those letters and check boxes, too.
Awesome, I’ve been trolling the chats with my Kennys Vargas fascination, love to see him get a bold mention!
Did you miss the memo that these projections supposed to be bold???
predictions are*
Benoit doesn’t look likely to lose the job; I assume the others were brought in to strengthen the bullpen in front of him. How his velocity continues to increase as he ages is impressive as well
Spa City’s 10 Bold Predictions:
1. Corey Kluber has another great year, but is the third most valuable pitcher on Cleveland’s staff after Carrasco and Salazar.
2. Steven Souza posts a 20/20 year with a BB% over 9% and a SLG over .450, emerging as a top 12 OFer.
3. Kennys Vargas tops 25 HR, but still manages less than 2 WAR due to his love of striking out and lack of defensive value.
4. Mookie Betts leads the Red Sox in WAR and solidifies his status as a top 12 OFer.
5. Kang Jung Ho fills a Zobristian role with the Bucs and hits more than 20 HR in what amounts to a starting role (divided among 2B, 3B and SS).
6. Zobrist plays 2B daily and does NOT fill a Zobristian role, failing to qualify at other positions in 2016 and severely reducing his OttoNeu value.
7. Javier Baez posts a 20/20 season, but still manages less than 2 WAR due to his intense love of striking out and moderate defensive value.
8. Wilmer Flores is a top 10 SS, based on his high ISO and low SwStr%; he will hit 20 HR and show improved patience with a .330 OBP.
9. Gerrit Cole strikes out more than a batter per inning, walks fewer than 2.5 per 9IP, and contends for the Cy Young award (based in part on his pitcher-friendly ballpark and defense).
10. Shawn Kelley and Yusmeiro Petit emerge as the 2015 versions (albeit older) of Wade Davis and Dellin Betances.
I hope you don’t mind if I get in on the Bold Predictions fun.
I kind of like this. Most seem a little too optimistic, but you could nail a couple. The Flores one is mighty bold, but he could have a pretty good year.
…I think you did a nice job: I felt this struck the optimal balance between bold and believable that most of the actual articles fail to achieve one way or another.
So your “four member of the 20/20 club” actually means four or fewer, not four or more, right? I think it’s essentially a bet on how few there will be, but it’s not entirely clear from the phrasing.
I’m saying four exactly.
BOLD!
These predictions are not bold. Any prediction has some odds of not achieving fruition but that doesn’t in itself make it bold. If these come true, nobody would be surprised… go out on a limb for your next list.
I agree that the Kershaw prediction is not bold but the backlash is. He missed a month and finished 2nd. Plus several value systems actually ranked him ahead of trout in 2014.